Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat – 2/21/2022

Kevin Goldstein: IT’S PROSPECT WEEK! Let’s get it going with a lively chat. Thanks for joining me today and let’s have some fun. Or something close to that.

Jacob: How much of the new CBA do you think will be effective immediately and how much will be 2023 or later? For instance NL DH, arbitration rules, roster sizes, Salary threshold before luxury tax etc?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s a weird one because of the timing. I’m sure some rules stuff will take place immediately, but some transaction/structure stuff will not. We can’t have half (or more) of an off-season under one rule set and then the second part of it under a different rule set, for example.

Joe: Is Major League Field Coordinator and Quality Assurance Coach the same job with different titles? If not what is the difference?

Kevin Goldstein: Oh boy . . . this is a very complicated question because of the title game. Like nearly EVERY TITLE IN BASEBALL there are people with that same title doing very very different things. It’s a weird world.

You are name: What’s for lunch?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t know yet!

You are name: Enjoyed your chat with Sahadev!

Kevin Goldstein: He was great. I had a lot of fun doing the show with him, and hope to do it again down the road.

NYYankees: Am I insane for being obsessed with Luis Sernas stats as a 16 year old in the DSL?

Kevin Goldstein: Um . . . yeah? It was a good year, obviously, but it’s not like the kind of line you can just stare at forever.

Ben: In 2020 they “postponed” the World Baseball Classic due to COVID. Do you think we will actually have another WBC and, if so, when? With Spring Training delayed, it’s too bad that couldn’t have done it this year.

Kevin Goldstein: I just think with the CBA up in the air and COVID still a thing, it just couldn’t be done this year. It’s a great even all around, and everyone realizes that and I’m sure it will be back soon, but I haven’t heard any specific plans.

Appa Yip Yip: If you were taking BP in front of scouts, would you be able to get a 20 power grade?

Kevin Goldstein: Easily, but that’s because you can’t go lower than 20.

Mike Ovaltine: Seiya Suzuki seems to be a forgotten man among the FA crowd. What is a simplified scouting report on him? Is he a starter on a playoff team or more of a 2 tier regular? In my head his player comp is similar to Tommy Pham in his prime.

Kevin Goldstein: I think he’s a starter on a playoff team.

Mike Ovaltine: Is it okay to still have hope in Tirso Ornelas, everyday major leaguer?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s . . . ok. There just hasn’t been any progress. I really liked the bat when I saw him as an amateur in 2015, but it just hasn’t advanced any, nor has the power.

Mike Ovaltine: How much has Nick Senzel’s value cratered? Is he a UTL player at this point?

Kevin Goldstein: I wouldn’t be shocked if he ended up being more than that, but I would be a bit surprised.

Casey: Good morning Sir, Duder. Where is your favorite place to stay/ catch a spring game in AZ? I just want sun + a beer + baseball! Also, if you have a crystal ball by chance, do you think if I book it for March 15Th, there will be a games that day? It feels like progress, eh?

Kevin Goldstein: Salt River is the nicest complex for me. As far as staying . . . I’m a Marriott guy so I just find one around and don’t worry about it too much. March 15? I think you’ll be watching backfield scrimmages….

SJ: How do you value someone like Ivan Melendez in the draft if you assume he’s a DH only in the pros?

Kevin Goldstein: You obviously have to really line up the bat. We have an entire season still to do that. Lots of things to look at in terms of swing decisions, contact rates, how he does against real velocity, just how much power he has. Lots to get buttoned up on but still plenty of time to do it.

Dave: Did you ever figure out the story with cursed bathroom house?

Kevin Goldstein: I did! I used to be a senior center and also a group home.

You are name: Did you watch Murderville on netflix?

Kevin Goldstein: Saw one episode and it didn’t click for me.

Ryan: should he get to play MiLB this year, where would you expect Kristian Robinson to show up. AA seems maybe too aggressive. Would you restart him in low A and pray for no regression?

Kevin Goldstein: I can’t answer that without seeing him. Need to get him in camp and see where he’s at and go from there.

Sabey Sabes: Followed some of the player testimony in the Kay trial. Any idea how isolated opioid use was to the Angels or more rampant?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t know how rampant it is, but I think it would be naive to think that it was only happening with the Angels.

Ram: The Blue Jays farm system has been ranked anywhere from 5th best to 21st best in the rankings by outlets so far. That’s quite a large variance. Do MLB teams have internal rankings of their own and other teams farm systems, and if so, are they discernibly different than industry consensus?

Kevin Goldstein: Teams definitely have their own prospect rankings for every team in order to help with trade talks, but I don’t know of any team that does farm system rankings . . . just not sure what the value would be for teams to do that.

Angelus Novus: Next 5 years, would you rather have McClanahan, Manoah, or Grayson Rodriguez? Thanks for all the prospect week content!

Kevin Goldstein: Rodriguez-Manoah-McClanahan.

Greg: How much time do we expect between a deal being reached and teams being able to sign or trade players? Is it instant?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s not. They’ll have a joint presser saying they’ve come to an agreement, but there’s still about 72 hours or so for full ratification and dotting and crossing and all that good stuff. So two or three days before transactions is likely, and then teams expect around seven days between presser and camps opening up.

Joe: Is almost every IFA signed out of an academy now? Do players ever just show up to a tryout on their own and get signed anymore?

Kevin Goldstein: Probably a better question for the podcast, as it’s a long answer. All of the IFAs have some kind of trainer/buscone but not all of them are at an academy.

Otis: How much control do teams have on players posting on social media? Not so much about personal thoughts/feelings but more about performance-related stuff? I’m thinking about a Garrett Whitlock situation where the Red Sox have cited some of his post-TJ videos as one of the reasons he was selected in the Rule 5.

Kevin Goldstein: Teams really have no control over that stuff, other than making sure IP is protected…

TBD: Asa Lacy.  Small sample, but are you concerned about his 7+ walk rate?

Kevin Goldstein: I am.

asnbrv: Who is a player who you thought was completely “done” as a prospect at one point, but came back to become a major leaguer?

Kevin Goldstein: Josh Hamilton is the obvious example.

Jon: Thanks as always for the chats KG! I don’t live far from Orchard Lake where projected 1st Rd RHP Brock Porter is playing this year. Would love to see him toss a couple games – how the heck do I find out when he’s even going to be on the bump? Part II: I imagine there will be scouts everywhere…cool to say hi or leave them alone?

Kevin Goldstein: If you go to a game you should at least be able to find out when he’s going next. Or just drive by the field and see if the heat is there or not. Scouts there are working. I think it would be good to just go, sit where they are, watch them work and listen to what they say to each other when they do. Some are more friendly than others, even to other scouts.

Mitch: How frustrating is it when you are advocating for a certain player (whether it be in the draft, trades, FA, etc.) and the team decides to do something different AND the player turns out to be very good? Do people in front offices ever get into “I told you so” bickering matches over this sort of thing?

Kevin Goldstein: Not really. Just because a player succeeds somewhere else doesn’t mean it’s would have happened with your team. I just wanted to be listened to and have my thoughts considered. That was my job, to consult.

Angelus Novus: What player is closest to 80 hit 80 power 20 grade everything else… historical and current?

Kevin Goldstein: I guess you could make this guy in a video game, but does he exist? .340 with 50 and does nothing else?

MoonBeamMcSwine: If Kumar Rocker is available to be picked at #10 or lower.. do the team(s) passing on him rue the day? Why ?

Kevin Goldstein: We don’t know. He’s a great unknown right now. We don’t know how healthy he is or what his stuff looks like. I’m sure we will have more clarity by draft day, but we certainly don’t have it right now.

Romorr: Kyle Bradish ready to compete for a rotation spot out of ST?

Kevin Goldstein: No, but I like him.

Matt: Do you remember which episode of Chin Music the Yordan Alvarez story was discussed? A few people were asking in the comments of the last chat

Kevin Goldstein: Not sure. It was early in the run. I don’t index the show and have yammered for over 100 podcast hours….

Appa Yip Yip: Realignment and expansion seem like they’re coming eventually. Would you prefer 8 four team divisions, or 4 eight team divisions, or do you not really care?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s just not something I spend a lot of time thinking about.

You are name: Do you prefer going to Cactus or Grapefruit league games from a work utility POV?

Kevin Goldstein: Cactus, easily. It’s just so much damn easier with 15 teams within an hour or less of each other.

Bill G: What would you say is the primary difference in how you rate prospects vs. Law/Mayo/Callis/Longenhagen?  Is there a philosophical difference or more “eye of the beholder.” Thanks!

Kevin Goldstein: There are incredibly differences. Everyone has their own biases and I think that’s a good thing. I’m a huge fan of getting thoughts on players from a diverse set of lenses.

Mitch: How much do teams truly care about the “PR blow’ of a trade talk? Will a team really not pull the trigger on a trade (even though they like the offer) just to not cause an uproar from the fan base?

Kevin Goldstein: The smart teams don’t consider it, but it certainly happens.

Guest: Is there a team that you found to be consistently unrealistic in their trade negotiations during your time with the Astros?

Kevin Goldstein: Just never matched up well with the Rays.

MoonBeamMcSwine: Are you a buck showalter fan? fan of his return to the dugout?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes; yes.

Guest: Curious about internal rankings. Do teams have their players ranked into tiers (beyond a simple 1-50 numbering system)? If so, in theory, any player could/should be traded if they could return another player with a higher tier in another organization? (I.e. any 50 players is available in exchange for any 55 player?)

Kevin Goldstein: Very team to team. The Astros did NOT use FVs for example.

Mike: Would the Mets and Rocker ever re-consider the other? They did negotiate a historic deal with his agent so it may be less contentious than we think

Kevin Goldstein: Maybe. The Mets would have to have permission from Rocker to draft him again.

Rob: Did you find any biases about your own process/prospect ratings that you had to work to overcome?  If so, how?

Kevin Goldstein: I think you are a fool if you ever think you have this all figured out. I look at players dramatically differently than I did ten years ago — much of that due to the data that is now available.

Dan McGraw: Is Jasson Dominguez going to be a bust?

Kevin Goldstein: Maybe. He also might be a superstar.

Guest: How

Kevin Goldstein: Now brown cow?

J-Shot: Who are a couple of top 100 prospects you value alot more than then rest of the industry?

Kevin Goldstein: Ask me after the Top 100 is revealed.

J-Shot: Do you think we will eventually see Statcast in the minor leagues soon?

Kevin Goldstein: I do, at some point in the next few years.

Guest: Am I crazy to not be very worried about CBA talks? I worry about the union losing power, I guess. It is very common for negations to stall until the last minute, and I feel a deal could easily get done in a week.

Kevin Goldstein: I always though we’d lose a portion of April and still do.

Ryan: With the Astros did the org ever have a pitcher initiate the move from starter to bp?

Kevin Goldstein: There are certainly pitchers who let you know that they are more comfortable in one role or the other, and you need to take that into consideration…

Guest: Why is Noelvi Marte so well regarded in the industry

Kevin Goldstein: You say this like you are surprised that he is . . . am I reading that right? If so, why are you surprised that he is?

MoonBeamMcSwine: How much support do you give a prospect that has been raised or has grown up in the industry.. as a familial / life experience advantage.. e.g. Micky Brantley and his son, Michael, Ken Griffey Sr and Junior, Ripkens.. etc etc?.. Can it be considered nature PLUS nurture?.. please comment..

Kevin Goldstein: It certainly helps in that it limits surprises. They know what the life is like and know what to expect.

Mitch: Thoughts on Vanderbilt using electronic watches to relay signs to the pitcher?

Kevin Goldstein: I think it’s fine. Even good.

Jordan: while locked out do players have to stick to the stipulations of there contract, like for some no snowmobiling, pickup basketball games…ect or are they free to do as they please

Kevin Goldstein: Fun question. I’m not sure, but team’s rarely enforce that part of contracts anyway.

Appa Yip Yip: Are there any concerns drafting catchers given that game calling is such a big part of what they do and basically none of them have ever done it, and how do you try to account for that?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s always a thing and it’s tough to figure out. I have a funny story about this so send a question to the podcast and I’ll tell it.

Mr. Fister: Does Nate Lowe’s GB frequency cap his ultimate ceiling?  How good could this guy be if he started lifting the ball more?

Kevin Goldstein: Answering the second question is just more easily said than done. How good could he be if he lifted the ball more . . . what if that mucked up his swing and he started making way less contact?

Chris: Any belief in Justus Sheffield figuring enough out to be a consistent rotation option somewhere?

Kevin Goldstein: Not really.

Mr. Fister: Alex Verdugo has always seemingly been bat over power.  That being said, he is only 24.  What do you predict his prime year lines to look like?

Kevin Goldstein: I could see him getting to 20 or so bombs in the end.

Steve O: If expanded playoffs is agreed to (let’s say 14 teams), and all the players get is a raised CBT to 225M for the first threshold, 30M prearb pool, and 800k minimum salary.. isn’t that major loss? Their last big chip is expanded playoffs. I feel like they need that in their back pocket and not give it up for things they should’ve already gotten.

Kevin Goldstein: Expanded playoffs are the biggest chip the players have, but at the same time, as much as anybody might think it is needed, it was foolish to honestly expect some kind of major structural change to the economics of the game coming out of this CBA.

Jimmy: What was the issue with Senzel? He looked so good as a prospect?

Kevin Goldstein: Loose approach, doesn’t get to the power much, lots of trouble vs. RHP. It happens. Most prospects who look good don’t turn out.

James: why do most podcasts tread over the same top few tier players per position(s) when what is needed is in site on players at the edge of a roster. Not all leagues are AL/NL with endless pool of established players.

Kevin Goldstein: If this is a fantasy question, that’s for Paul Sporer.

Thomas: Re: the players winning or losing the CBA fight, it seems that a big part of the players position here isn’t necessarily about gains they’re making now, but showing the owners that their stance has changed, and they’re playing hardball now (excuse the pun). It’s about setting the stage for the next CBA as much as “winning” this one

Kevin Goldstein: Agreed.

Krusty: Sort of a random but a two-parter, if you don’t mind: is Reds’ Nick Quintana a prospect or nonspect? and where’s the dividing line?

Kevin Goldstein: He hasn’t hit at all as a pro . . . I don’t think there is any kind of line like you are asking about, however.

Dalton Wilcox: What do you find wrong with today’s prospect meta?

Kevin Goldstein: Managing expectations.

Kevin Goldstein: Or the lack thereof.

Jonathan: Do different teams have different intuitions about replacement level?  Or is the public-facing way of quantifying it considered fairly orthodox throughout baseball?

Kevin Goldstein: There are massive internal debates about even the concept of replacement level….

J-Shot: Is Druw Jones the consensus #1 prospect for this years draft?

Kevin Goldstein: No. There is no current consensus.

SJ: If you were put in charge of a front office, what industry would you look into hiring from that isn’t currently seen as a standard path into baseball?

Kevin Goldstein: Let me stew on this. Nothing immediately comes to mind. I came from a non-traditional background. I think you just have to open to looking at smart people regardless of background.

Phil: Could you say more about there being no line between a prospect and a non-prospect? There is such a thing as an “organizational player,” yes?

Kevin Goldstein: There is, but it can change. Players chance, often in dramatic and unexpected ways.

David: Considering the (apparent) move to daily meetings. Before/after next Wednesday night for CBA agreement.

Kevin Goldstein: I’m glad they are talking and talking a lot, and it’s definitely a good thing, but I really don’t see them finding common ground in the next 48 hours.

David: NEXT Wedneday, 3/2

Kevin Goldstein: My bad. That’s possible. I think we’re going to end up with 144-154 games.

Erik: How common was it for the Astros’ internal evaluations of their own prospects to diverge from the public consensus by at least a full grade during your time there? And if that happened, was it almost always that the Astros were higher on their own lesser-known guys, or did the public ever love a prospect that you guys weren’t big fans of?

Kevin Goldstein: Often, and in both directions.

stanky: If there was one prospect in the minors who was allowed to lead off every single inning (so roughly 2x the PAs as he would otherwise get), would his hitting ability advance 2x faster? I know it’d be player to player but, generally speaking, would prospects advance much faster if they had twice the reps per game?

Kevin Goldstein: Faster yes, but I don’t think it would be perfectly linear so less than 2x.

Drew: Now that the Astros have a draft again, assuming they still draft as well as the did before with new management…do you have an idea of how long it can take to rebuild the system to a point where it’s respectable again? Seems like it can be done, would just take about 2-3 years of good drafting at least

Kevin Goldstein: The amateur group is still pretty much intact and in very good hands. Of course it can be done, it happens all the time.

Guest: The year is 2035. You look back at your 2022 Prospect Rankings and see that Oneil Cruz has had the best career on the list. What single aspect of his game would you guess he must have been more successful at than anticipated?

Kevin Goldstein: Ability to stay at SS comes to mind. Between swing decisions improves the whole offensive profile. Also, if I’m 66 years old and looking at 13 year old prospect lists, I’m worried about what my life has become….

Guest: How much wood would Brandon Woodruff chuck if Woodruff could chuck wood?

Kevin Goldstein: 81.45.

Kevin Goldstein: Ok, final minutes here. Lots of prospect week content to get back to!

Insert Witty Name Here: If the players just said we won’t play unless you give us everything we want, how many years would they have to sit out before the owners would agree?

Kevin Goldstein: Not gonna happen.

Chi City Mayne: Where does Ed Howard go from here?

Kevin Goldstein: To Hi-A. Obviously he’s got a long way to go, but it’s not like anyone should give up on him.

Guest: I’ve seen FG prospect evaluation talk about mistake hitters at low levels a lot. Is there any way to scout the stat line for a prospect who is a mistake hitter? Any way to identify someone who is hitting well, but will struggle with big league stuff

Kevin Goldstein: Just off the stat line? That would be very very hard. You need the underlying metrics and looks to establish that kind of thing.

J-Shot: Do you think Elly De La Cruz’s hit tool ever develops? He has some of the loudest tools right now in the minors.

Kevin Goldstein: It’s crazy tools, no doubt. He definitely needs to clean up his approach.

Ben Schneider: Going back to the Astros eval question, if a front office is lower on their prospect than other teams, then do they actively try to trade him for good value?

Kevin Goldstein: Oh yeah.

Josh: Did you think Hiura would struggle given the tap and leg kick or was this unexpected?  Would you be optimistic about his future if he can tame down those 2 things?

Kevin Goldstein: I did not, but neither did anyone else. It’s not like anyone was surprised he was drafted where he was drafted.

Chi City Mayne: Burl Carraway seems on the James Karinchak track. Could he be up this season?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think they’re that similar.

stanky: Thanks, pitching dev question this time: how important is getting work in games to minor league pitching dev? Is there a future where more than 50% of the work of improving pitchers in the minors is done via driveline and other analytical tools, and actual in game reps are less important?

Kevin Goldstein: They’re both very important. You can’t just practice your way to good.

Guest: Is MILB ever going back to league names, like the PCL? Or are they sticking with AAA West?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t know. I haven’t heard anything. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of corporate sponsorship on the naming of those, unfortunately.

Jon Gruden: If Kyler Murray decided today he wants back in on baseball, how many at bats would he need before he cracks OAK’s lineup?

Kevin Goldstein: Oh good lord, how could anyone answer that with any kind of assuredness?

Sam: Do you know why the Yankees don’t list their front office directory on their website? Is it strategic?

Kevin Goldstein: No real strategy there. It’s available to other teams if that’s what you mean by strategic. They do have MANY more subcontractors and consultants than most teams.

Nick: remember daniel ray herrera?

Kevin Goldstein: Of course. I remember them all my friend, or at least try to.

Mac: Is a JC hitter the toughest demographic to evaluate?

Kevin Goldstein: International hitters are far more difficult.

Topher: Is college baseball going to be on the rise because of no MLB baseball currently being played?

Kevin Goldstein: Maybe a little? I don’t see anything big happening there. People root for teams and those teams aren’t playing. I don’t think some big number of Dodgers fans are going to suddenly put that same effort into UCLA.

Logan: Do front office people talk about (or play, likely illegally) fantasy baseball?

Kevin Goldstein: Not at all.

Kevin Goldstein: Lots of Fantasy Football hoever.

Ryan: Can AJ Vukovich stick at 3B?

Kevin Goldstein: Probably not.

Bob: Have you seen Jose Ramos of LAD? if yes, thoughts on his future?

Kevin Goldstein: I have. He has some interesting tools/ability, but not enough to make me super high on him right now.

Casey: The 80 80 20 everything player is David Ortiz, eh? I realize he didnt have 80 hit, but he’s as close as it gets right?

Kevin Goldstein: Maybe? Someone else brought up Lou Gehrig. You’re talking about a unicorn.

Kevin Goldstein: Ok, time to get back to Top 100 stuff! Hope you enjoy a crazy great week of content and talk to you next week!