Keys to the World Series: Phillies

The World Series starts tomorrow, and for the first time in, well, forever, I actually care about the outcome. Sure, the Phillies participated in the series back in 1993, but it is very hard to understand the severity of such a situation as an 8-yr old. Heck, back then I even thought that batting average was a sufficient evaluative barometer. Though this series will feature Joe Buck and Tim McCarver in the broadcasting booth, my eyes will still be glued to the screen each night, hoping that the team I devote so much of my energy to can reward me in the biggest way possible. The Phillies will have to be sharp, sharper than they have been thus far, in order to walk away victorious, but there are a few key specifics they need to hone in on in order to be successful.

First, even though this may be a cry on deaf ears, Charlie Manuel really needs to separate Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. The specific batting order does not matter that much, but having them back to back is literally just asking for Trever Miller, JP Howell, or perhaps even David Price to enter into a high leverage situation with the goal of neutralizing the heart of the Phillies order. Especially given Howard’s recent struggles, why not go with Utley-Burrell-Howard? At the very least it splits the order up, meaning that the first six could be Rollins (S), Werth (R), Utley (L), Burrell (R), Howard (L), Victorino (S), or the same incarnation with Werth and Victorino reversed.

Next, for the games played in Tampa, they will need to pick their defensive poison between Ryan Howard at 1B or Pat Burrell in LF. Considering Burrell is replaced each night with a better defender, it is more than likely that he will serve as the designated hitter come tomorrow. This means that either Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, or Geoff Jenkins can join the outfield. Dobbs is not a natural outfielder, but he has seen time there for the Phillies over the past two seasons, and is the most consistently productive of the three. Getting him in the game could prove to be very important.

Another key aspect will be to have a short leash on Jamie Moyer. Jamie has a remarkable season, regardless of how old he is, but his two playoff starts have been abysmal. He may have been unlucky, and just an inch lower from striking out Blake DeWitt, ending the first inning of Game 3 against the Dodgers down 2-0 as opposed to 5-0, but if Moyer is not getting calls from the umpire, or his location is poor, he is not going to be effective. JA Happ has proven himself capable enough, and while he should not begin the game already warming up in the bullpen, if Moyer starts struggling, Manuel needs to make a move quickly.

Lastly, for now, Charlie Manuel needs to avoid going crazy with micro-managing the bullpen. The Phillies relief corps has been the best in the bigs this season, but Manuel has a tendency to do what he thinks is the correct way to go about doing things as opposed to, say, the right thing. If Cole Hamels is cruising through six innings and is at, or below, 90 pitches, there is no reason to bring in Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre, or JC Romero. Likewise, yes, Brad Lidge has not yet blown a save this season, but if any of these starters is cruising through eight innings, and can come back out for the ninth, do not waste him or make him throw more pitches than is necessary.

Finally, while this is not necessarily something the Phillies organization can control, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins need to step up, big-time. Rollins did not have tremendous statistics in either series, but he did record timely hits, which more than helped the Phillies reach the World Series. Howard really only has one meaningful hit the post-season, racking up statistics in relatively meaningless situations. If he does not start producing, given that Manuel is not going to separate he and Utley, it gives Chase no much less protection and virtually creates a black hole. He was able to knock the ball out of the park all year long, and he needs to continue to do so now, when it matters most.

This series might not get the ratings, but it is a very solid matchup of two of the best teams in baseball this year, and has the makings of providing some very entertaining games to watch.





Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.

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Conballs
16 years ago

I agree with this analysis. However, the Phils are at a DH disadvantage for game 1. Only 9 of Dobbs’ 226 at bats has come against lefties (1-9). That is rough. Luckily for the Phils, Kazmir looks to only start 1 game in Tampa AND he’s matching up with Hamels. After game 1, Dobbs can DH. For game 1 DH I like Bruntlett. Stay with defense (not that he’s amazing) and if Cholly needs to use Stairs later in the game Taguchi or Jenkins can be his defensive replacement.

Also, yes, Manuel should not have an early hook, but we already know he won’t pull Cole early after game 5 of the NLCS. However, I do believe in staying with winning strategy. If Myers, Moyer and Blanton can go 6 innings, Cholly has a lot of options and should use them. He has Durbin and Romero to matchup the 7th, with a red-hot Madsen (who actually got ManRam out convincingly) for the 8th and you-know-who waiting in the wings. Even if Myers and Blanton hit a bump in the 6th, you have Eyre to matchup with a Pena or Crawford.

The key: SPLIT-UP HOWARD AND UTLEY. That’s been explained.

Phils in 6.