Kiley McDaniel FanGraphs Chat – 9/26/14

Kiley McDaniel: I’m here and you know it’s me because I don’t have a zinger

Comment From Keith Law
How dare you try to steal my thunder…like you ever could.

Comment From Guest
ZINGGGGG

Comment From CW
Hi Kiley, have you had a chance to see Manuel Margot? His numbers certainly look solid, are you as high on him as other? If you have seen him what do his grades look like?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw him yesterday for the first time and I liked what I saw. Easy plus runner, advanced bat and a little pop too

Comment From Max
What non-baseball things do you 20-80?

Kiley McDaniel: The common joke is using it to grade women but that’s more of a phase when you’re introduced to the scale and looking to apply it to anything. I use it more for produce.

Comment From Squints
When does your prospect outlook for the Twins come out? I’m very curious to see what you have to say about Sano, who is missing a year, and Buxton, who’s at least going to the AFL.

Kiley McDaniel: I’m guessing Tuesday. Have a few calls lined up for this weekend but I think the order is mostly set.

Comment From Max
Are pitchers now better off signing out of high school because teams will use them more judiciously in the minors?

Kiley McDaniel: BA did a study showing that college pitchers get TJ more which I think backs up the inclination scouts have to say that, health-wise only, pitchers are better off being developed by professional orgs. It would appear looking out for long-term value of the asset is the difference

http://www.baseballamerica….

Comment From The Iron Sheik
Thoughts on Brandon Nimmo? ML regular, perhaps starting tail end of next year?

Kiley McDaniel: Regular upside but should be in minors all of 2015

Comment From Vince
How far do you think 2014 pushed back Buxton’s ETA and and did it cause to devalue him much as far as his likely ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: Ceiling is the same, but scouts will be more aware of health problems going forward (obviously the concussion wasn’t his fault). He’ll likely need all of 2015 in the minors.

Comment From StartWedman
I know he doesn’t hit for high BA, but it doesn’t seem like Daniel Palka gets a lot of attention in the Dbacks system. Yes, old for the league, but lots of power and played all 4 at G Tech. Thoughts?

Kiley McDaniel: I wrote up the DBacks system last week

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

and mentioned 39 prospects. Palka didn’t come up at all, but probably would in the context of a top 50. He’s got raw power but is that bigger, stiffer type swing that I talked about in the hit tool series.

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Kyle Roller with the Yankees is a similar type of guy in that he’s stiff with raw power and it could work in a bench/platoon type role as a low batting avg type but likely is a 4A slugger type

Comment From Mike
What is the downside to Toronto playing Pompey in CF next season. He has a better approach at the plate already than both Gose/Pillar and he has high end defence abilities. What is potential negative effect on long term development??

Kiley McDaniel: This is why you don’t rush prospects. When they aren’t ready, they learn bad habits (bad for their long-term goals) so they can stay up in the big leagues when they could learn things in the correct incremental way in the minors. What you have in the big leagues shouldn’t impact that decision–there’s crappy one-year fill-in veterans out there for situations like this.

Comment From Cubbie Blues
All these cuban prospects keep showing up to workouts 20 lbs heavier than expected. They must have pretty good trainers, huh?

Kiley McDaniel: Or they only get motivated to get in crazy good shape when there’s 8-9 figures on the line. I mean…that would motivate me.

Kiley McDaniel: Especially when I don’t get paid much more in Cuba based on how good of shape I’m in. Simple economics!

Kiley McDaniel: Unrelated side note: I found out this week that my favorite part of my favorite song on the new Alt J album is a sample of Miley Cyrus. Feel free to ignore all of my music opinions for the rest of time.

Comment From Gabes
When will come clean about being Ben Lindbergh’s brother?

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve been texting lately about 1) his conspiracy to not mention me in his articles that he clearly could 2) he keeps writing about the teams I used to work with and essentially how much better off they are without me there (or that’s how I read it) and 3) Millionaire Matchmaker, obvi. The brother thing is so 2013.

Comment From Jake from State Farm
Were you able to see Austin Meadows? Any thoughts on how he looked? He seems to really polarize scouts even with his success thus far on the stat sheet (Law really likes him, Baseball Prosepctus not so much).

Kiley McDaniel: I was “low” on him in the draft since I didn’t think he belonged in the top 5 picks, as another publication had hyped him as for almost a year. I still really liked him then and scouted/talked to him during his junior year in HS when I started hyping him as a first rounder. He’s still got a chance to be a 55-60 FV outfielder. He’s really good.

Comment From Bro
bro!

Kiley McDaniel: BRO

Comment From Mike from VA
Hey Kiley, thanks for the chat. Anyone standing out in Red Sox Instrux (besides Devers)? They seem to have a loaded squad this year.

Kiley McDaniel: Devers looked really good yesterday, though the results at the plate weren’t great for that game. Seems to be coming along well and the scouts I talked to at the game that have seem him this year were all raving. Margot caught my eye as mentioned above. SS Javy Guerra is a strong glove some guys were on but I didn’t see enough to pass much judgments. Kevin McAvoy was better than I expected, looked like a solid 4/5 starter type. Some scouts were on Danny Mars and Jake Cosart has big stuff if you can work on the delivery. I liked Sam Travis and Michael Chavis as amateurs and they looked similar yesterday as well.

Comment From StartWedman
Who is next year’s “Mookie Betts”? Fast riser who is a decent prospect, but no one knows about.

Kiley McDaniel: If I told you, wouldn’t that immediately invalidate his Mookie Betts-ness?

Comment From neal
sorry if this has been covered before, but is there a particular order you’re doing the prospect lists in?

Kiley McDaniel: reverse order of MLB standings. Twins next, then Cubs/Astros/Red Sox depending on how standings work out

Comment From Fronk
Dalton Pompey supposedly doesnt have a lot of power but hit a bomb against Felix, what do you think of that

Kiley McDaniel: Everyone knows he’s capable of hitting a HR…so….nothing?

Comment From TH
BP said to give up on zach lee. i dont want to give up on zach lee bc giving up on zach lee would make me sad. can you console me or no

Kiley McDaniel: The stuff keeps backing up and his delivery/approach is moving towards deception, pitch to contact back-end type guy. I can’t tell you how much I hate taking athletic arms and making them throw cross body when nothing is wrong. So, yeah, I’m not feeling great about Zach Lee either.

Comment From Stephen
Any word on Cody Kukuk? High A didnt seem to treat him well.

Kiley McDaniel: Big lefty with electric stuff that he has trouble commanding. Might never be anything, but that’s the guy you bet on if you’re looking for big league impact.

Comment From a eskpert
This isn’t particularly relevant to you, specifically, but I want to do 5 or 6 variable regression of Batted Ball outcomes on Contact. Do you know where I could get exit angle and velocity data?

Kiley McDaniel: Either work for a team, become buddies with MLB/sportvision/trackman or pay a crapton of money…actually probably just the first two.

Comment From Vince
Is A.J. Reed a thing? Are we a couple years away from wondering where the ‘Stros can fit him, Singleton, and Carter in a lineup?

Kiley McDaniel: Fans spend way too much time worrying about where guys will fit. Reed has legit 65 raw power from the left side but we aren’t sure he’ll hit. Stop worrying.

Comment From Cubbie Blues
Okay, I’ve read everything you wrote about Gallo but I still don’t get it. I thought K% and BB% tend to be stable across the levels? Why is he a top prospect? This guy makes Baez look like Jose Bautista.

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t know how many times I can say this. You can’t judge what a guy will become simply by looking at his numbers and rounding up/down.

Comment From Guest
What prospects do you see going to winter ball this year, preparing themselves for an appearance in The Show next year like Gregory Polanco last year?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve tried, but still can’t tell the future.

Comment From Jack
Did Kohl Stewart’s year at Low-A change your outlook on his future at all?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe a little, but the upside is the same, just a little more projecting to get there.

Comment From Guest
Can someone at Fangraphs please write about James Harrison?

Kiley McDaniel: The linebacker?

Comment From Mooking for Love
When does your prospect outlook for the Phillies come out lololololol god my team sucks!

Kiley McDaniel: I wrote them up last season at my old job and it’s one of the free prospect lists, so enjoy these out of date opinions!

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1348…

Kiley McDaniel: I also wrote up Maikel Franco a few weeks back http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Andrew
What do you do if your the Cubs and Baez and Russell both pan out?

Kiley McDaniel: STOP WORRYING ABOUT IT

Kiley McDaniel: Also, Russell is a really good def SS and Baez is probably a 3B. Starlin Castro is the one you worry abo—WAIT WHY AM I ENCOURAGING THIS

Comment From Chris B.
Thoughts on Jon Duplantier, RHP from Rice?

Kiley McDaniel: In the mix for the top 2-3 rounds right now if he can navigate a year working under his cloverfield monster of a coach that feeds on young elbows (anyone got photoshop skills to make this?)

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Erix
Any thoughts on Pentecost since he moved into pro ball?

Kiley McDaniel: Not enough to change the pre-draft evaluations

Comment From Nuke LaLooshs left eyelid
corey seager’s upside??

Kiley McDaniel: prettay prettay good

Comment From a.c.
Do you think Eddy Rodriguez has caught up to Henry Owens as Boston’s best pitching prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: No

Comment From Captain Mook
Will Mookie Betts be on the Red Sox to start the 2015 season?

Kiley McDaniel: Either the Red Sox or some other team oh wait that’s what you’re asking aren’t you

Comment From Aaron
Jackie Bradley Jr. has been an epic let down offensively. Did you hear any scouts saying he COULDN’t hit major league pitching? Where does the scouting breakdown when something like this happens?

Kiley McDaniel: Okay, let’s all calm down people. Scouts can use what the guy does (what they see) and what they know of his makeup and ability to adjust to project what he’ll be. This doesn’t mean they can infallibly tell the future or that he won’t become one day what they thought he would becomes.

But don’t let that stand in the way of you declaring things to be epic, you writing sentences that don’t make sense or declaring things scouting breakdowns. Have fun out there!

Comment From Jesse
Saw on twitter that you were at Yankees instructs the other day. Anyone in particular stand out to you?

Kiley McDaniel: So I’m focusing mainly on the recent July 2nd guys and short season talents as I’ve seen Jagielo, Austin, Mason Williams, etc. a ton.

Kiley McDaniel: The recent July 2 16/17 year olds all basically looks like they’re 16/17 so far, except for 18 year old Korean SS Hyo-Joon Park (who looks solid and is kinda like Hak Ju Lee) and Juan De Leon, who looks awesome…and while he didn’t get the highest bonus in this class, many thought he was the best of the prospects they signed way back before July 2

Kiley McDaniel: Also, C Luis Torrens and SS Jorge Mateo are for real. Those 4 guys are the short season international guys to watch that scouts and I are excited about.

Comment From Matt
What are your thoughts on Franklin Barreto? He is only 18 in high-A with 6 HR and 29 SB in only 73 games. I know he probably won’t stick at SS, but CF seems possible,

Kiley McDaniel: 2B/CF fit but really runs and really hits. Saw him facing NYY in instructs the other day and he looked really good.

Comment From Steve
Thoughts on Almora’s season? You were super high on him in his draft year and ever since.

Kiley McDaniel: Still coming back from hamate injury and adjusting his approach since he can’t hit every pitch thrown at him now. Still high on him, it might just take a little longer.

Comment From Matt
Sano was reportedly in the mix for 3B last spring. If his recovery goes well, does he have a shot out of spring training next year? Purely a service time issue, or does Plouffe’s injury even factor in?

Kiley McDaniel: No shot. Sano is just starting to do game stuff (throwing, swinging, etc.), but isn’t playing in any games yet to avoid getting re-injured. He’ll go to AA and if he goes nuts all of 2015, maybe Sept callup. No reason to rush him.

Comment From Fronk
As a Jays fan I have read a lot about Sean Reid-Foley and his “inverted w” arm angle, how much consideration goes into pitching mechanics when evaluating a prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s not pretty in the back and that contributed to him slipping to the 2nd round. Some teams pay a lot of attention to it and others don’t really look at it much.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Pierce Johnson still have #2-3 upside?

Kiley McDaniel: Eh more #3 upside but realistically won’t get there.

Comment From Squints
I believe you, but what makes you feel that Buxton needs all of next season in the minors, while others seem to think he’ll be up at or around September call ups?

Kiley McDaniel: Sept callups come after the minor league season…if he comes up then he would’ve spent the maximum number of days in the minor leagues.

Comment From Cubbie Blues
Are there any players under 30 who, if they retired today, would make the hall of fame?

Kiley McDaniel: ONLY ME, BRO

Comment From Darth Stout
Why is that pitching arm motion called the “inverted W?” Why not just calling it “M?”

Kiley McDaniel: No one has ever explained this to me.

Comment From The Iron Sheik
Not a question, but much improved on mixing the humor with actual answers. Kudos Kiley, kudos.

Kiley McDaniel: (iron sheik joke designed to make you hate me as a result)

Comment From Kiley McDaniel
Albert Almora has such good contact skills that he can hit anything that comes his way. The issue with this is that he makes weak contact on pitches that he should lay off all-together. Your welcome.

Kiley McDaniel: Was that me from the past or the future?

Comment From Dave
In soccer, another largely skill based sport, prospects train relentlessly and rarely play games. Will any club ever try something similar? I know the Royals did it way back when and it seemed atleast somewhat productive

Kiley McDaniel: They do this in the Dominican and their prospects largely suck in games for years afterwards until coaches teach them how to play games

Comment From Jason
Dear Kiley – I’m worried that my team is going to have too many good baseball players, especially at premium positions. When can I start panicking?!?!?!

Kiley McDaniel: START IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER STOP

Comment From Dave
At draft time, was the power for Dominic Smith all future power? How concerning is his complete lack of power so far?

Kiley McDaniel: line drive approach, 55 now/future raw power but game power will take a little time to integrate. scouts comp’d to todd helton in high school.

Comment From Roger
What teams have you seen in instructs, and who do you plan to see?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m in Tampa, so mostly the teams around here. NYY, PIT, TB, BOS, TOR, PHI, BAL

Comment From Pale Hose
Kiley – Can you explain the relationship between grading tools relative to peers and future tool growth?

Kiley McDaniel: Explained that here

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Something specific you’re wondering about?

Comment From Shyam
Will you evaluate Javier Baez along with the other Cubs prospects?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, not list eligible with 215 PA, but after I do the minor league lists, I have some MLB evaluation stuff planned so STOP WORRYING CUBS FANS

Comment From Guest
Profar: I read that “shoulder instability” can be caused by “repeated stresses to the shoulder joint associated with repetitive end of range shoulder movements (such as throwing).” Best treatment: stop throwing. (http://ow.ly/BZpg5) Doesn’t sound good to me, what do you think?

Kiley McDaniel: Second base fits even better now

Comment From Nuke LaLooshs left eyelid
Re: Corey Seager. I was hoping for something more specific, like will he announce his presence with authority???

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe and/or probably!

Comment From Scared in Chicago
I bought a bunch of stock several years ago. It didn’t cost me much, so I said “what the hell.” Well some of that stock looks like they’re going to be very valuable in the near future. I’ve never had this much money before in my entire life. It’s freaking me out. What do I do?

Kiley McDaniel: GET INTO YOUR NUCLEAR FALLOUT BUNKER AND START CRYING

Comment From Warren
What are your thoughts on Yankees prospects Ian Clarkin and Gosuke Katoh, can they be productive big league players?

Kiley McDaniel: Sure, could be but long way to go and not enormous tools

Comment From Brian
I have too many potential friends who worry about their team having too many prospects, where will they all fit in my phone?

Kiley McDaniel: I DON’T KNOW BUT OMG YOUR LIFE IS OVER

Comment From Cubbie Blues
RE: Gallo, just to clarify: are you saying B% and K% are NOT stable across levels, or that Gallo’s swing and approach at the plate suggest he could figure it out?

Kiley McDaniel: Comes down to adjustments, which he’s shown he can make and you can’t really know that looking at numbers. Up for debate how many/which adjustments he can make in MLB.

Comment From Baffled
If you’re the Cubs and Baez and Russell both pan out YOU JUMP FOR JOY! Why are you worried about that???? If anything worry about them NOT panning out!!!

Kiley McDaniel: Or maybe focus on real problems like when you want Chipotle but it’s 10:30 and they’re closed OH NO NOW I’M WORRIED THIS WILL HAPPEN TO ME

Comment From Sam
Is Aaron Judge someone Yanks fans can get excited about as a potential star, or is he more of a 50-type player?

Kiley McDaniel: Big question mark when drafted, now looks like he can be a big league contributor in the 45-55 FV area. That’s a win. He’s not Stanton even tho the size/raw power/position/speed/arm are all kinda similar.

Comment From Peterman
Is Jacob Lindgren good enough to get MLB hitters out consistently right now? What kind of bullpen role do you see him ending up in?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes. Setup guy.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Russell>Bryant>Soler>Schwarber>Baez>Almora 3 years from now. Am I far off?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s literally impossible for anyone to rightfully have any confidence in that amount of projections. There’s a tiny chance you luck into being right but you’re probably way off.

Comment From bob
over/under 50 hrs in baez’s best season

Kiley McDaniel: In the last 4 years, only one player (Chris Davis) has hit over 44 HR in a season and he sucked the next year. I think the under is a pretty easy call here.

Comment From Scout guy
Stiff with raw power reminds me of Phil Plantain

: MMMM PLANTAINS

Comment From Ryan
So Mark Newman was kind of bad at his job, huh?

Kiley McDaniel: Oh, come on that’s….unfair?