Konerko Back To Chicago

After an extended dance, the move everyone expected – Paul Konerko returning to Chicago – apparently is going to happen. Bob Nightengale has reported that the White Sox have given Konerko a three year deal for $12.5 million per year. Given how nutty this market is and the White Sox determination to retain the man who has held down first base for them since 1999, this was the price they had to pay. But it is hard to ignore the fact that the White Sox just bought Konerko’s age 35-37 seasons, and while he was tremendous last year, he does not have a history of sustained excellence.

Here’s Konerko’s career wOBA, year by year:

With the exception of 2003, that is about as consistent of production as you can expect from a player. From 1999 to 2009, you could take 600 plate appearances and a .365ish wOBA to the bank. He was the definition of steady-but-unspectacular. Then, at age 34, he busted out with the best offensive season of his career, following a couple of years that looked like the beginning of his decline. That makes him a challenging player to project, as the most recent piece of data suggests a different answer than the larger body of work.

While 2010 certainly suggests that Konerko hasn’t yet begun to lose any significant skills at his age advances, the majority of the spike is BABIP related. A .326 mark might not sound crazy for a guy who can hit the ball pretty hard, but it was a career high for Konerko, and is way above the marks he’s put up throughout his career. His career mark is .285, and it was only .274 from 2003 to .2009. He did post the highest ISO of his career, so it’s certainly possible that he was just hitting it squarely more often than ever before, but you have to expect significant regression from the main area that propelled the career year.

At $12.5 million per year, the White Sox are paying for about a +2.5 win player, which is something close to what Konerko was back in his prime. In other words, to earn this money, Konerko needs to not really be any worse in his mid-30s than he was in his mid-20s. There are players who have had careers of that sort, but it is pretty rare. If Konerko hits more like 2009 than 2010 going forward, this contract could be a real problem, real fast.

But, of course, we can’t ignore 2010. It happened, and it clearly affected what Konerko got this winter. The most recent piece of data is the most relevant, and in Konerko’s case, it’s a good piece of recent data. Given this commitment, though, the White Sox have to hope that it wasn’t a 2003-style blip, just in the other direction.