Cust For a Low Cost
Jon Paul Morosi is reporting that Jack Cust will join the Mariners on a one-year, $2.5 million deal – the sort of contract that will once again allow Cust the chance to rack up surplus value for his team. In his career to date, Cust has been paid $6.165 million, and racked up 8.2 WAR for his teams.
It’s not too hard to see why his skills may be undervalued. In an off-season that saw Mark Reynolds traded for two relievers, a glove-less slugger that has struck out in 38.9% of his major league at-bats is not a sough-after entity. But along with those strikeouts come walks (17.3% career) and power (.207 ISO career). In fact, over his career, 53% of his plate appearances have ended in a walk, strikeout or home run. At least with the bat, he’ll help (126 career wRC+, 138 last year), so he can be your all-or-nothing DH if you shop in the bargain aisle.
Unfortunately, the trend in recent years has been a dissipation of his power. From a peak in 2006 (.248 ISO), his power has dropped every year until last year’s barely-above-average .166. At 31, and in full ownership of the “old people skills” that Bill James famously proved can erode quickly, that’s a worrisome trend. The thing is, isolated slugging is one of the last statistics to stabilize on a seasonal level, and Cust only accrued 425 plate appearances last year. Could he see a mini-bounceback in the power department with the Mariners? That seems paradoxical considering his new home park, but a straight-up comparison of park factors for lefties at the two parks doesn’t show much difference (92 park factor for home runs in Oakland, 91 in Seattle). Lefty pull hitters have even received a boost from Seattle’s park in the past.
What this means for Milton Bradley, though, is hard to see. Perhaps he’ll split time with Michael Saunders in the outfield, or maybe he’ll find a new team in spring training. Russell Branyan and his balky back will have to ply his trade elsewhere, for sure, and the extra million or so dollars the Mariners spent for Cust over Branyan were probably spent on getting slightly younger and slightly healthier.
A one-year deal for a DH at this cost won’t sink a team. If Cust merely repeats his worst season of his last four (2009, ~1 WAR, 9.4 runs batting), he’ll be worth the money. A decent trip through the penny store may have landed the Mariners a decent bat for the only position where brick hands won’t matter.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
As an A’s fan, today is a sad day. Just let him play his natural game and play him at DH every day, and he’s getting you at least a 3.0 WAR, at $2.5MM, this is a very, very smart move.
I just remember when my team was the smart team 🙁
Cust’s dream of becoming the first 3TO hitter to win the team batting title just became a reality.
Save the fact he’ll be playing with Ichiro! and probably Ackley, sure.
We give walks a value based on the “average” run expectancy and/or on base-out states.
It seems common sense to me that walks for top of the order hitters are more valuable because of the increased chance that they end up scoring (good hitters hitting behind them).
It would seem to me that the middle of the orders hitters’ walks may be less valuable because weaker hitter hit behind them.
So, an “average” those walks are valuable, and still hold some value from the “it’s still not an out” component. But say Cust hits 5th or 6th, do all those walks still rack up enough value to for Cust to have as much value as we think. We all know that all walks are not the same, so that’s not the question I am asking.
Given his lack of speed, an extra base hit is required to score him … and he’ll be hitting in front of hitters with less extra base hits than others.
I believe the A’s are a smart team. I know the metrics show Cust is valuable. I cannot figure out why the A’s would not just let 10M worth of cheap value walk out th edoor, but force it out the door.
Either the A’s are not smart (at least in this situation), or there’s something being over-valued with Cust’s WAR (or something else).
Well, Cust was worth .9 WAR and only bout $4 million with the bat in 2009, so that could be what Oakland is looking at. They have similar players with greater upside and lower costs in Barton and Carter, and I think they just didn’t want to lock in the DH spot right now.
I’m also referring to an article the other day that suggested Cust would be worth 2 – 2.5 WAR or something close to that, which could be anywhere from 9-12 M … which is a lot of value to show the door.
So, I was assuming that we might be missing something, rather than assuming that the A’s were throwing away money.
Having ready replacements for equal or greater value at a lower cost definitely reduces Cust’s value to the A’s.
*It would seem to me that the middle of the orders hitters’ walks may be less valuable because weaker hitter hit behind them.*
You are wrong for three important reasons.
Reason 1: The lead-off hitter is only guaranteed to be the lead-off hitter in the first inning. After the first innning, it is basically random So, for 8 out of 9 innings, this principle doesn’t apply. (Note also that if Cust bats fourth and the team produces three straight outs in the first, you have a high OBP lead off guy.)
Reason 2: The most expensive outs, in terms of run expectancy, are out produced with men on base. For example, a team begins the inning with about .55 runs expected. Add one base runner, and that doubles. Make an out with a base runner, and you go back to about half a run.
Reason 3: If, on the other hand, you add a runner with men already on base, you increase run expectancy, even if they guy coming to the plate is a less good hitter
In the case of Cust, he’ll probably bat fourth, so he should have decent, if not good, hitter behind him.
Very helpful. Thanks for taking the time. ‘preciate it.
Only thing I think needs to be added to this is a caveat that, in general, the better hitters are arranged at the top of the order, thereby increasing the odds of BOTO baserunners in front of the TOTO scoring, compared to MOTO baserunners in front of the worse BOTO crew.
Not an inconsiderable impact, to be sure. Your overall points are solid, though.
This is a small thing, but you mention that Safeco field has a positive effect on lefty pull hitters, but Cust’s power is primarily to the opposite field. Over the course of his career he has hit 68 HRs to left and center and 34 HRs to right. Of course, Safeco’s HR park effects for RHBs are more favorable than the Coliseum as well, so perhaps that will be a boon.
This is a good point that Dave Cameron pointed out to me after I posted. Good eye.
“Over the course of his career he has hit 68 HRs to left and center and 34 HRs to right. ”
How many home runs has he hit to “Right and center”? I’m sure its pretty close to 68.
He looks to pretty much spray homeruns to every field (looking at his hit charts).
http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/12/08/custs-hrs/
“At 31, and in full ownership of the “old people skills” that Bill James famously proved can erode quickly, that’s a worrisome trend.”
And where exactly did Bill James “prove” this to be true? You seem to be pretty sure of this.
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/jack-old-people-skills-cust/
Found the particular passage a while back. I suppose the research could use some updating, but it has been shown before.
That research showed that players with “old player skills” had 10% less value than those with “young player skills” during their age 31-33 seasons. They had similar/equal value in their age 21-23 seasons.
I’m not sure how we would apply this to Cust, other than he would be expected to produce 10% less than a player of the same age with “young player skills”.
In fantasy baseball, his value probably decreases faster than in MLB baseball. With a 2.5M contract and a history of 2-3 WAr seasons, and having those numbers dragged down with negative fielding runs. So, as a DH he could still perform well above contract, even with a decline.
The key questions are [1] what is Cust’s true talent, and [2] how much decline should we expect from him in 2011.
My guess is that most projection systems will show him to be a .170-.180 ISO and .340-3.70 wOBA guy, which is going to be valuable for 2.5M … but not necessarily in fantasy baseball.
If you read original Bill James article that the author is referencing, (I think it’s available for online viewing at Google Books) you can identify two serious problems with the group of players that he chose in his comparison.
First, they were chosen not form the general population of baseball players as a whole, but out of a select group of players: the 300 best outfielders of all time. This doesn’t tell us much about players that weren’t among the 300 best outfielders of all time. What does this mean for shortstops? Or firstbaseman or catchers? What does this mean for the 90% of players that weren’t among the best of all time?
Second, he compares the “old player skills” group not to a control group that would represent all other players, but to an “opposite” group, those players that had what would be considered “young players skills”. The problem with this is that it could be telling us as much or more about how “young players skills” age as it is about those with “old player skills”. We need to know how those players with “old players skills” age relative to the whole population of players, not to one very specific set of players.
And the most critical problem with his study is that incorporates only 25 players. That is a very small sample size if you’re trying to study the affects of aging. One or two outliers amongst a pool that small could have a huge effect on the ultimate results. You’re going to need a much larger group of players to ensure you’re getting reliable information.
In short, nothing about this study should be considered compelling or convincing evidence that this phenomenon exists. Certainly nothing that could be called “proof”.
I think there’s more evidence, but traveling back from the winter meetings and may not find it today.
I did see this on Tango’s blog, which seems to suggest speedsters age better than non-speedsters.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/does_speed_age_better/
I’m pretty sure pitchers proved this before Bill James was writing.
When a guy’s value is in “power and walks”, and he no longer has the power he once had, there’s no reason to pitch around him. Hence, his power and walk totals go down, and he loses his value. Some might just call it again, other might call it getting exposed (or both).
Cust has dropped from a .200+ ISO guy to a .170-.180 ish type, and his walk rate has dropped from 18-20% to 15-16%. His HR/FB rate is about half of what it was during his peak years.
Obviously a big key to Cust’s value is walks. But he also has to give pitchers a reason not to challenge him continually. How he starts the season may be THE most important thing for him. Word will spread, regardless of the scenario.
At the very least, Cust’s situation is one worth watching. While Aubrey Huff is the latest example of a player that gave tremendous value to his team I don;t want to call everyone “the next Huff”. But if Cust can put up his usual .340 – .370 wOBA and maintain an ISO of .170 or so, he may very well have a 2.5 – 3 WAR season, which would be great for 2.5M.
While the M’s don’t look at though they’ll be expected to contend in 2011, I’m not sure anyone in that division can be totally counted out.
“When a guy’s value is in “power and walks”, and he no longer has the power he once had, there’s no reason to pitch around him. Hence, his power and walk totals go down, and he loses his value. Some might just call it again, other might call it getting exposed (or both).”
I absolutely believe you’re right about this. Many power hitters receive what are “respect” walks, i.e., a pitcher just does not want to put a ball over the plate where the guy can crush it. They receive some extra walks above what they would be getting just based on their patience and batting eye. If there’s one area where players with “old players skills” might be aging faster, it would be right here. That extra offensive value of those walks disappears as their power starts to fade.
I’ve been a fan of Jack’s and kept track of him since he played in High School. Here is a kid who can hit. Strikeouts aside, if he is given the chance to bat every day, watch what happens! Put him in a lineup with some protection around him and it will be even better. No one in their job performs well when they do not feel wanted or part of the team. You’ll see
Ironically, the A’s paid Chavez a small fortune over the past few years and you know the results he had. I cannot wait until he goes back to play the A’s.
Good luck Jack From an older co-Spartan
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