Largely Irresponsible Leaderboard: Spring Training Pitchers
Last week, in a move that has been hailed as simultaneously “bold” and “very bold” by the author himself, I published a largely irresponsible leaderboard of regressed pitching leaders from spring training so far.
That post’s existence in the world was predicated on three conditions, as follow:
(a) Spring-training stats don’t appear to be very predictive of regular-season stats; but
(b) The return of baseball is exciting, and invites consideration of some sort; and
(c) Research suggests that, of all spring-training stats, pitcher strikeouts and (to a lesser degree) walks are probably the closest thing to predictive.
Owing to the wild success of that first post, what follows is the a second — and ever current — SCOUT pitching leaderboard for spring training. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than average. Note that xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.
| Player | Team | G | GS | IP | TBF | K | BB | xK% | xBB% | SCOUT- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Jordan | WSH | 3 | 1 | 7.0 | 29 | 11 | 0 | 27.2% | 7.5% | 75 |
| Luke Putkonen | DET | 4 | 0 | 6.0 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 26.9% | 8.0% | 77 |
| Aroldis Chapman | CIN | 3 | 0 | 5.0 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 26.9% | 8.0% | 77 |
| Joaquin Benoit | SD | 4 | 0 | 4.0 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 26.6% | 8.2% | 79 |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 2 | 2 | 5.0 | 22 | 9 | 1 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 80 |
| Evan Reed | DET | 5 | 0 | 6.0 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 81 |
| Zach Miner | SEA | 4 | 0 | 4.1 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 25.8% | 8.3% | 81 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 3 | 1 | 7.0 | 27 | 9 | 1 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 83 |
| Donnie Joseph | KC | 4 | 0 | 3.1 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 25.2% | 8.5% | 83 |
| Seth Rosin | LAD | 3 | 0 | 8.0 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 24.4% | 7.8% | 84 |
Some notes:
- Washington’s Taylor Jordan has produced the most impressive spring-training performance among all pitchers, it would appear. His most recent appearance, this past Saturday against a lineup of mostly Atlanta starters, was the best of his three total ones (box): 3.0 IP, 12 TBF, 6 K, 0 BB. While Ross Detwiler is probably the favorite to win the last spot in the Nationals rotation, Jordan could merit consideration for starting duties, as well.
- Since last week’s edition of the irresponsible leaderboard, Detroit reliever Luke Putkonen has recorded two appearances and 3.0 innings, posting a 4:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the process. The performance isn’t very surprising: he produced an 87 xFIP- in ca. 30 major-league innings last year.
- Toronto’s Drew Hutchison produced this past week the second of his two very strong spring appearances, recording the following line (box): 3.0 IP, 12 TBF, 5 K, 1 BB. Hutchison has an “outside chance” of winning a rotation spot, said John Farrell* at the beginning of the month. One assumes his spring thus far hasn’t hurt those chances.
*As several readers have noted, it is John Gibbons and not Farrell currently employed to manage the Blue Jays.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
John Farrell is a very busy guy. Coaching Blue Jays and Red Sox at same time must be exhausting.
Chairman Cistulli is correct.
Proof: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101024&content_id=15824602&vkey=news_tor
Wasn’t that pretty much what he spent all of 2011 and 2012 doing anyway?