Leaderboards of Pleasure – 8/29/11
Desmond Jennings just keeps doing this kind of thing.
It’s probably about time, reader, that we had a conversation about Desmond Jennings — on account of, as you’ll notice below, Jennings has claimed the top spot on the Player NERD leaderboard. That is, in the words of someone who unnecessarily repeats adjectives, a “big, big deal.”
Let’s use this edition of Leaderboards of Pleasure to further our understanding of Jennings, hm?
• First of all, here are some numbers that will interest the baseballing nerd. On the season so far, through 153 plate appearances, Jennings has made these stats a thing: .354/.440/.646, .470 wOBA, 205 wRC+, 8 HR, 14-for-19 SB, 2.3 WAR.
• It’s important to note that Jennings UZR is actually -1.8 — which is to say that Jennings’ WAR isn’t inflated artificially by that.
• One thing that is inflating Jennings’ impressive line is his BABIP. It’s currently at .413. ZiPS suggests that something like .333 is more reflective of his his true talent. Slash12’s xBABIP calculator suggests .323.
• Question: What would Jennings’ line look like if normalized for BABIP? Answer: Still quite good. Using the FIB calculator Bradley Woodrum’s introduced last week, we find that (figuring a .330 BABIP) Jennings should hit like this:
• In conclusion, Desmond Jennings is good.
1. Team NERD Leaderboard
2. Underrated Player Leaderboard
3. Player NERD Leaderboard
4. Pitcher NERD Leaderboard
Team NERD Leaderboard
Like the NERD scores you’ll find below, this one represents an attempt to anticipate the “watchability” of each team. The first iteration appears in a heartfelt love letter to America, which anyone is free to read here.
Please note that the “POFF” numbers (playoff-odds adjustments) are not included in the Team NERD scores you see below, but are instead the bonuses/penalties applied to the Game Scores for each respective team — a thing about which you can learn more by reading here.
| Teams | NERD | Age | BAT | HR/FB | Spd | BULL | UZR | Pay | Luck | POFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royals | 10 | 2.53 | 0.07 | -0.54 | 0.89 | -0.43 | 0.09 | 1.40 | 1.45 | -1 |
| Yankees | 10 | 0.00 | 2.39 | 1.80 | 1.39 | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Red Sox | 10 | 0.00 | 2.23 | 1.55 | 0.89 | 0.64 | 1.91 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0 |
| Diamondbacks | 9 | 0.54 | -0.41 | 0.67 | 0.89 | -0.08 | 2.18 | 0.97 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Marlins | 8 | 1.26 | -0.51 | 0.12 | -0.45 | 0.50 | -0.50 | 0.89 | 2.00 | -1 |
| Rays | 8 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0.18 | 0.89 | -1.85 | 1.69 | 1.25 | 0.82 | 0 |
| Rangers | 7 | 0.00 | 1.45 | 1.31 | 0.89 | -0.12 | 0.51 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1 |
| Brewers | 7 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.93 | 0.06 | 1.33 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0 |
| Padres | 6 | 0.63 | -0.70 | -1.13 | 2.06 | 0.02 | 0.44 | 1.16 | 0.00 | -1 |
| Blue Jays | 6 | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.89 | 0.16 | -0.51 | 0.75 | 0.00 | -1 |
| Angels | 6 | 0.00 | -0.15 | -0.08 | 0.39 | -0.43 | 1.27 | 0.00 | 1.29 | 4 |
| Rockies | 5 | 0.18 | -0.20 | 0.36 | 0.56 | 1.16 | -0.26 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Reds | 5 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.86 | -0.78 | -0.33 | 1.46 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Indians | 5 | 0.90 | -0.06 | 0.31 | -0.28 | -0.33 | -0.90 | 1.08 | 0.00 | 1 |
| Nationals | 5 | 0.08 | -0.79 | 0.64 | -0.11 | -0.36 | -0.18 | 0.72 | 1.50 | -1 |
| Pirates | 5 | 1.44 | -1.25 | -0.91 | -0.11 | -0.29 | -0.06 | 1.15 | 0.00 | -1 |
| Dodgers | 4 | 0.00 | -0.54 | -0.71 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 1.78 | 0 |
| Mets | 4 | 0.63 | 0.77 | -1.48 | 1.06 | -0.08 | -1.99 | 0.00 | 1.47 | -1 |
| Braves | 4 | 0.00 | -0.44 | 1.38 | -1.95 | 2.23 | -0.86 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0 |
| Cubs | 4 | 0.00 | -0.55 | 0.12 | -0.28 | -0.57 | -0.27 | 0.00 | 2.00 | -1 |
| Astros | 4 | 0.36 | -0.56 | -1.70 | 0.22 | 0.09 | -0.92 | 0.55 | 1.99 | -1 |
| Cardinals | 3 | 0.00 | 1.22 | 1.30 | -1.78 | 0.05 | -0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Phillies | 3 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.72 | -0.43 | -0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Giants | 3 | 0.00 | -1.91 | -1.42 | -1.11 | 1.54 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 1.93 | 2 |
| White Sox | 2 | 0.00 | -0.73 | -0.58 | -1.45 | 1.54 | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1 |
| Orioles | 2 | 0.36 | -0.04 | 0.53 | -1.62 | 0.16 | -1.62 | 0.19 | 0.34 | -1 |
| Tigers | 2 | 0.18 | 0.76 | -0.20 | -1.11 | -1.40 | -0.58 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 1 |
| Athletics | 1 | 0.00 | -0.47 | -1.37 | 0.06 | -0.57 | -0.95 | 0.65 | 0.00 | -1 |
| Mariners | 0 | 0.00 | -1.63 | -1.22 | -0.28 | -0.74 | -0.17 | 0.16 | 0.53 | -1 |
| Twins | 0 | 0.99 | -1.22 | -1.11 | -0.78 | -2.61 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1 |
Underrated Player Leaderboard
To determine the most underrated player, we look at each player’s WAR relative to a very fake version of WAR (called FANT, in this case) constructed only by the five most common fantasy categories. (Read more here.)
| Name | Diff | WAR | FANT | Avg | HR | R | RBI | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Avila | 2.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.06 | 0.26 | -0.72 | 0.30 | -0.68 |
| Howie Kendrick | 2.2 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 0.96 | -0.10 | 0.51 | -0.71 | 0.22 |
| Shane Victorino | 2.2 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.22 | -0.10 | 1.09 | -0.45 | 0.72 |
| Brendan Ryan | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0.2 | -0.45 | -1.54 | -1.05 | -1.25 | -0.08 |
| Placido Polanco | 2.1 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.30 | -1.30 | -1.50 | -0.98 | -0.68 |
| Peter Bourjos | 2.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.17 | -0.70 | -0.27 | -1.41 | 0.82 |
| Yunel Escobar | 1.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.33 | -0.46 | 0.57 | -0.82 | -0.68 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 1.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 1.19 | 0.26 | 1.48 | 0.62 | 1.41 |
| Kurt Suzuki | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.0 | -1.18 | -0.34 | -1.11 | -1.30 | -0.78 |
| Ben Zobrist | 1.8 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 0.27 | 0.02 | 1.61 | 0.78 | 0.62 |
| Alexei Ramirez | 1.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | -0.36 | -0.22 | 0.57 | -0.23 | -0.28 |
| Matt Wieters | 1.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | -0.22 | -0.10 | -0.40 | -0.50 | -0.88 |
| Jamey Carroll | 1.8 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 0.70 | -1.78 | -1.24 | -2.53 | 0.02 |
| Alberto Callaspo | 1.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.27 | -1.18 | -1.05 | -0.98 | -0.38 |
| John Buck | 1.7 | 2.1 | 0.4 | -1.24 | 0.14 | -1.50 | -0.39 | -0.98 |
| Casey Kotchman | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 1.68 | -0.82 | -1.63 | -0.98 | -0.88 |
| Evan Longoria | 1.6 | 4.0 | 2.4 | -1.18 | 1.09 | -0.34 | 0.94 | -0.88 |
| Brett Gardner | 1.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | -0.09 | -1.18 | 0.77 | -1.46 | 2.71 |
| Omar Infante | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.20 | -1.42 | -1.37 | -1.25 | -0.68 |
| Matt Holliday | 1.5 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.16 | 0.49 | 0.90 | 0.41 | -0.88 |
Player NERD Leaderboard
Very similar to Pitcher NERD (below), except for position players. (Read more here.)
| Name | NERD | Age | WAR | xBABIP | HR/FB | Spd | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Jennings | 10 | 1.18 | 2.76 | -0.90 | 2.70 | 1.83 | -0.20 |
| Ryan Braun | 10 | 0.46 | 2.01 | -0.20 | 1.48 | 1.57 | 0.65 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 10 | 0.46 | 2.17 | -0.06 | 1.16 | 1.41 | 0.77 |
| Shane Victorino | 10 | 0.00 | 2.43 | -0.36 | 0.17 | 2.03 | 1.46 |
| Curtis Granderson | 10 | 0.00 | 1.99 | 0.04 | 2.46 | 2.08 | -0.93 |
| Jose Reyes | 10 | 0.23 | 1.87 | 0.00 | -0.97 | 2.39 | 2.02 |
| Jose Bautista | 10 | 0.00 | 2.69 | -0.39 | 2.56 | -0.08 | 0.27 |
| Justin Upton | 10 | 1.42 | 1.75 | -0.43 | 1.01 | 1.21 | 0.09 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 10 | 0.94 | 1.08 | -0.32 | 2.09 | 1.26 | -0.03 |
| Matt Kemp | 10 | 0.70 | 1.92 | -0.23 | 2.13 | 1.16 | -0.69 |
| Albert Pujols | 9 | 0.00 | 1.15 | 0.38 | 1.86 | -0.03 | 1.55 |
| Robinson Cano | 9 | 0.23 | 1.13 | 0.10 | 1.57 | 1.05 | 0.83 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 9 | 0.70 | 1.93 | -0.21 | 1.37 | -0.03 | 1.05 |
| Ian Kinsler | 9 | 0.00 | 1.42 | 0.43 | 0.18 | 1.26 | 1.41 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 9 | 0.46 | 2.04 | -0.13 | 0.39 | 0.59 | 1.33 |
| Joey Votto | 9 | 0.46 | 1.87 | 0.01 | 2.06 | -0.24 | 0.26 |
| Chase Utley | 9 | 0.00 | 1.88 | -0.26 | -0.27 | 1.52 | 1.49 |
| Howie Kendrick | 9 | 0.46 | 1.88 | 0.03 | 1.39 | 0.90 | -0.37 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 9 | 1.18 | 1.41 | 0.19 | 0.45 | 0.85 | 0.21 |
| Mike Stanton | 9 | 1.90 | 1.03 | -0.25 | 2.77 | 0.18 | -1.51 |
Pitcher NERD Leaderboard
The idea with Pitcher NERD — as with the other NERDs — is to express with one number the likelihood that the learned fan might have interest in a certain player. (To read more about Pitcher NERD, click here.)
| Name | NERD | xFIP | SwStrk | Strk | Velo | Luck | Age | KN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Greinke | 10 | 2.72 | 1.92 | 0.36 | 0.73 | 1.60 | 0.17 | 0.00 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 10 | 2.14 | 1.80 | 0.57 | 1.04 | 0.00 | 1.16 | 0.00 |
| Roy Halladay | 10 | 2.52 | 1.63 | 2.32 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michael Pineda | 10 | 0.94 | 2.25 | 1.35 | 1.61 | 0.21 | 1.41 | 0.00 |
| Cliff Lee | 10 | 2.23 | 0.90 | 2.33 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brandon Morrow | 10 | 1.02 | 2.14 | 0.57 | 1.26 | 1.34 | 0.42 | 0.00 |
| Justin Verlander | 10 | 1.74 | 1.30 | 1.16 | 1.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CC Sabathia | 10 | 1.79 | 1.63 | 1.60 | 1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 10 | 1.41 | 0.45 | 1.43 | 0.50 | 0.37 | 1.66 | 0.00 |
| Matt Garza | 10 | 1.55 | 1.80 | 0.64 | 1.19 | 0.54 | 0.17 | 0.00 |
| Cole Hamels | 10 | 1.85 | 1.86 | 1.21 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.00 |
| David Price | 10 | 1.45 | 0.45 | 0.39 | 1.57 | 0.20 | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| Anibal Sanchez | 9 | 1.50 | 1.58 | 0.66 | 0.50 | 0.84 | 0.17 | 0.00 |
| Jonathon Niese | 9 | 1.38 | 0.17 | 1.26 | 0.01 | 1.16 | 0.91 | 0.00 |
| Cory Luebke | 9 | 1.72 | 1.52 | 1.16 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.00 |
| Brandon Beachy | 9 | 1.40 | 2.08 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.08 | 0.91 | 0.00 |
| Mike Minor | 9 | 1.16 | 0.34 | 0.91 | 0.27 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 0.00 |
| Juan Nicasio | 9 | 1.12 | 0.34 | -0.11 | 1.34 | 0.75 | 0.91 | 0.00 |
| Felix Hernandez | 9 | 1.50 | 0.57 | 0.28 | 1.07 | 0.20 | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| R.A. Dickey | 9 | 0.22 | -0.11 | 1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.78 |
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
seems to me that if both the position player and pitcher leaderboards are full of 10’s and 9’s, the system needs to be adjusted. Maybe calculate NERD out of 50, or 80 or something to give the boards more detail?
Then again this is just a goofy stat anyway, so calculate it however you please. 🙂
There’s 22/750 players in the majors who have 10s. That’s less than 3%. An arbitrary stat that makes it such that on average each team has 0-1 of the most exciting players doesn’t seem so bad. (Also it’s probably just a thresholding thing.)
I like 0-10 because it is arbitrary and not meant to really delineate at high resolution. When I look at these I just look for 9-10 vs 0-5.