Lookin’ Back on the Draft

by
August 14, 2008

With the deadline for 2008 amateur draft picks to sign professional contracts expiring on Friday, it is a perfect time to reflect on drafts past. Let’s take a look at the Top 5 picks in the last five drafts (prior to 2008) and see who the best pick was and how they are doing now.

2007 Top 5: David Price, Mike Moustakas, Josh Vitters, Daniel Moskos, Matt Wieters

Price (Tampa) made his Triple-A debut for the Tampa Bay organization last night after posting an 11-0 record and sub-2.00 ERA in High-A and Double-A ball in 2008. Wieters (Baltimore) is also looking like a steal with the fifth overall selection for Baltimore. Given how Moskos (Pittsburgh) has imploded, wouldn’t Pittsburgh fans love to have the catcher hitting .353/.453/.602?

2006 Top 5: Luke Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Evan Longoria, Brad Lincoln, Brandon Morrow

Hochevar (Kansas City) looks like he is going to be an OK, but not great, big league pitcher. Longoria (Tampa), on the other hand, looks like a future star. The rookie is hitting .278/.352/.533 with 22 homers in 381 at-bats. Reynolds (Colorado) and Lincoln (Pittsburgh) have been slowed by injuries – a disturbing trend among top-drafted college hurlers in recent years.

2005 Top 5: Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun

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Upton (Arizona) is still showing signs of being a superstar-in-the-making but he is still experiencing growing pains. Of the three third basemen taken in the Top 5, Braun (Milwaukee) was the afterthought but he has been the best Major Leaguer so far. Zimmerman (Washington) has struggled these last two seasons after a great rookie season in 2006. Gordon (Kansas City) is showing signs of improvement after a disappointing rookie season, but he is still not hitting for average or power.

2004 Top 5: Matt Bush, Justin Verlander, Philip Humber, Jeff Niemann, Mark Rogers

Bush is by far the worst No. 1 overall pick in years. Verlander (Detroit) wins as the best player among these Top 5 almost by default given that he is the only one who has been consistently healthy. Like many Detroit Tigers, though, his 2008 season has been a disappointment. Niemann (Tampa) and Humber (Minnesota via NY Mets) both have a shot to be average big league pitchers, which is a far cry from their previous potentials.

2003 Top 5: Delmon Young, Rickie Weeks, Kyle Sleeth, Tim Stauffer, Chris Lubanski

The last three selections on this list are a motley crew. Weeks (Milwaukee) may be the most overrated player in baseball given that he has never hit well but people continue to refer to him as a good hitter on the cusp of breaking out. It’s been four years now. Young (Minnesota via Tampa) is the best player of this quintet but his lack of improvement is disappointing. Yes, he is young but his 2008 season is shaping up to look a lot like his disappointing 2007 campaign. Sleeth is already out of baseball and Stauffer probably isn’t far behind.





 

Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

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Everett
17 years ago

Looking at the ’05 and ’06 drafts as an Ms fan, all I can say is “ouch.” With a guy like Lincecum who went after Morrow, and guys like Braun, Zimmerman and Tulowitzki who went after Clement. The good news is that neither are busts, but still…

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