Madson Boards the Extension Train

Fresh off of a World Series win, the Philadelphia Phillies headed into the offseason with a rather lengthy list of arbitration-eligible players. Eric Bruntlett and Clay Condrey quickly re-signed. Greg Dobbs soon followed suit. And Cole Hamels, as Matthew noted last night, signed a 3-yr deal to avoid arbitration that greatly benefits the team. Joining Hamels on the 3-yr extension express is reliever Ryan Madson, which is actually somewhat surprising.

See, Ryan is represented by Scott Boras, who claimed that the Madson-Lidge tandem was akin to the Rivera-Wetteland tandem of the old Yankees regime. Madson = Rivera? A stretch in every sense of the word, yes, but it gave us a glimpse of how the superagent values his client. Based on the way Boras presented Madson, it seemed almost guaranteed that the free agent market would be tested following the 2009 season.

Now, after reportedly turning down a 3-yr/$12 mil deal, Madson signed for a 3-yr/$12 mil + incentives deal. The terms of the incentives are not yet known but the Phillies managed to lock up their setup man for one more arbitration year as well as two free agent years.

Last season, Madson logged 82.2 innings with a 3.33 FIP and 3.05 ERA. The ERA actually matched his output in 2007, when he missed time down the stretch due to injuries. All told, he produced +13.1 value runs, good for +1.3 wins. At fair market value, Madson was worth $6 mil, despite earning $1.4 mil. Madson in 2008 was largely a tale of two pitchers, however.

From March 31-August 1, Madson pitched in 49 games and 56.1 innings of 3.51 ERA/3.88 FIP baseball. The numbers were not extravagant nor were they detrimental to the success of the team. He looked solid, but not fantastic. Something clicked after that, because from that day on, Madson pitched 26.1 innings with a 2.05 ERA, 2.09 FIP, and 8.33 K/BB ratio. His fastball velocity rose as well, which was extremely noticeable in the World Series. The guy went from a 92-93 mph fastball to routinely throwing 97 mph with the greatest of ease.

Next season, Madson projects to pitch around 78 IP with a 3.75 FIP, 3.85 ERA, and 2.80 K/BB. His average leverage index will also rise given the nature of setting up games. A win value in the 1.2-1.5 range seems pretty likely. If his actual value falls within that range, his fair market value would be between $4 and $6.75 mil. Let’s say that he will be worth 1.4 wins in 2009, and will lose 0.3 wins of effectiveness each year of this deal. Under those circumstances, with a bit of inflation factored in, though not 10%, Madson would produce 3.3 wins fot $15.6 mil. Based on these calculations, the Phillies seemingly signed him to a below-market contract.

It will be very interesting to see if Madson’s new workout/warmup regimen will allow him to sustain 95+ mph fastballs all year long, but he instilled plenty of confidence in Phillies fans down the stretch. I may have ragged on Ruben Amaro, Jr for some odd moves early in this off-season, but locking up Hamels and Madson are two key steps.