Making the Rockies Look Good

Yesterday, Hannah Keyser, of the excellent Bandwagon newsletter, threw down the gauntlet on Bluesky. She posted a screenshot from MLB Network’s daily research packet and wrote, “I challenge the researches at MLBN who put out the daily stat packet to find a split that makes the Rockies look good.” The screenshot featured a single line of text:

The daily research packet is exactly what it sounds like, a multi-page document that contains tons of research on the day’s slate of games, broken down into bit-sized pieces of interesting information. A team of researchers assembles it each morning, then distributes it far and wide across the baseball media ecosphere. Although you’ve probably never seen this document, it has unquestionably informed your experience as a fan. Each broadcast team has its own researchers, of course, but if you’re watching a game and you hear the announcer casually mention that Mickey Moniak is batting .333 with a .476 slugging percentage when he represents the go-ahead run, you can feel pretty confident that they read that fun fact verbatim from the packet.

I worked on the packet as a researcher during the second half of the 2023 season and the beginning of the 2024 season. If I’m being honest, I was not very good at it. I have plenty of excuses. I was running myself ragged trying to cobble together a living through multiple freelance baseball writing and editing jobs at the time. I’d often wake up at 4:00 AM, research and write up my three games, then just shower and roll into the rest of my normal work day. I also started in the middle of the season and only worked a couple days a week, so I never fully learned the ropes. But excuses aside, it was also just a challenging job and a way of thinking about baseball that was completely new to me.

The people who put the packet together are smart and very good at what they do. They contribute to the conversation in a major way, and they rarely get public recognition. While we tend to experience their work as a series of non sequitur fun facts, each game summary is an attempt to set up the story of the game, what’s interesting about it, and how matchups and recent events might affect the way it unfolds. For all the fun we have with the less meaningful splits that often make their way onto the air, these researchers are incredibly good at finding interesting information because they know the game well enough to ask the right questions.

The snippet Keyser pulled is a great example. The Rockies had just won their first Monday game of the season, so Tuesday was the only day of the week left on which they hadn’t yet won. It was marvelous timing and a brutally efficient way to sum up an entire season. As with so many great research nuggets, it was only good for one day. The Rockies beat the Marlins last night, securing their first Tuesday win, their first series win, and just their second back-to-back win of the season.

I’m going to take up Keyser’s challenge, but I suspect that whoever got assigned today’s Rockies-Marlins game in the actual research packet will take it up too. Because of the strictures of the research packet, they’ll necessarily do so in a much subtler way, but I’m sure they’ll have a bunch of much cooler stats than the ones you’re about to read. Finding Rockies stats that are impressive in a good way is truly a Herculean task right now, and it’s best left to the professionals.

The Rockies, as a whole, have put up -2.6 WAR this season. Their position players are at -4.2. That’s already the eighth-worst mark of all time, and there are still 101 games left in the season. They’re on pace for -11.2 WAR, which would break the existing record by well over a win. Normally, when dealing with a struggling team, I’d pull heavily from recent numbers, making note of which hitters or pitchers were on a hot streak, but the Rockies don’t really have many of those. If you look at our leaderboard and select the seven- or 14-day splits, you’ll see that only two players on the team have a batting average above .300 over either stretch, and one of them has barely played during that period.

I found way, way more terrible splits than good ones. Did you know that the Rockies have the lowest team batting average in the first inning and the second lowest in the second inning? Did you know that none of the eight different pitchers who have started a game for the Rockies this season has an ERA below 4.00, and only two of them have an ERA below 5.00? When catcher Jacob Stallings managed a strikeout during two garbage time innings against the Padres on May 10, he immediately jumped into 10th place among the team’s pitchers with 0.024 WAR. He still ranks 11th today, and his 2.07 FIP is also third best on the club.

Ok, sorry. Those are the wrong stats. Let’s get to the good ones. Here’s my best attempt to make the 2025 Rockies sound like a good team.

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The Rockies secured a series victory against the Marlins on Tuesday, and they’ll look for a sweep later today. If anyone can help them finish it off, it’s catcher Hunter Goodman, who is 5-for-9 with three homers so far in the series. Goodman’s homers knocked in the winning runs in both games. Maybe this shouldn’t be a surprise, as Goodman is raking on the road. When he’s not at Coors Field, Goodman is batting .299 with eight homers and a 151 wRC+.

The pitching matchups may also favor the Rockies. According to Statcast’s run values, Miami starter Cal Quantrill’s cutter has been his best pitch this season, worth 1.3 runs per 100 pitches. But the Rockies have been crushing cutters this season. Their .396 wOBA against the pitch is tied with the Nationals for the third-highest in baseball, trailing only the Yankees (.480) and the Diamondbacks (.412).

Colorado starter Kyle Freeland has carved up the Marlins in seven career appearances. In his five starts, Freeland is 3-0 with a 3.30 ERA and 3.18 FIP. Freeland may also just love pitching in Florida. Over his three career starts in the Sunshine State, Freeland has a 2.41 ERA and 26% strikeout rate while holding opponents to a .159 batting average.

Will the Rockies be able to take advantage of spacious LoanDepot Park? With 15 triples, Colorado is tied with the Cubs for the major league lead. Moniak and Jordan Beck lead the team with four each, which ties them for third most in baseball, but it’s truly a team effort. Eight different Rockies have tripled this season, tied with the Pirates for the most in baseball. The Marlins defense has allowed 11 triples this season, tied for third most in the league.

Ryan McMahon has been destroying the ball this season. His 94.4-mph average exit velocity ranks sixth among all qualified players. Who wouldn’t want to be part of this club?

Although his 75 wRC+ doesn’t show it yet, McMahon’s .342 xwOBA, 13.7% walk rate, 11.8% barrel rate, and 50.7% hard-hit rate are all the best marks of his career since he became a regular in 2018. He could be ready for a breakout.

And will this be the year McMahon finally takes home a Gold Glove? He has been in the 91st percentile or better in OAA in each of the last four seasons, but he’s hit another gear this season. His 9 DRS lead all third basemen, and his 4 Fielding Runs trail only Ke’Bryan Hayes (6).

At one point this season, the Rockies faced Cy Young winners on three straight days, going 2-1 over that stretch. On April 30, they closed out a series against the Braves by dispatching reigning NL Cy Young Chris Sale. They started a series against the Giants the next day, felling three-time AL Cy Young Justin Verlander on May 1, then falling to Robbie Ray on May 2.

Brenton Doyle may be known for his defense, but he’s clobbering left-handed pitching this season. In 52 PA against lefties, he’s slashing .364/.462/.523, for a 166 wRC+.

Goodman has been excellent when it counts. When he comes to the plate with runners on base, he leads the team with six home runs. Overall, he’s slashing .292/.361/.542 for a 137 wRC+ with runners on. Goodman is also batting .321 with runners in scoring position.

Beck has been coming through in the clutch. In high-leverage situations, he’s batting .368 with a 152 wRC+. When the tying run is on base, Beck is 8-for-15 with two walks and a double. His .533 batting average trails only Pete Alonso’s .615 mark (min. 10 PA).

Free agent acquisition Kyle Farmer has been a doubles machine. His 13 two-baggers are tied for 27th most in the game, but that number looks much more impressive on a rate basis. Farmer’s in excellent company here:

And the Rockies have a quartet of lights-out relievers holding down the bullpen:

• Jake Bird leads the way with a stellar 1.56 ERA over 25 appearances and 34 2/3 innings. He is striking out 29.8% of batters this season. His 0.8 WAR ranks 10th among relievers.
• Zach Agnos was added to the bereavement list on Tuesday, but he leads the team with four saves, and he’s sitting on a 1.50 ERA. Agnos is walking just 3% of the batters he faces. Over his last seven appearances, Agnos has allowed just one earned run and two hits, for a BAA of .091 and an ERA of 1.29.
• Jimmy Herget is running a 3.03 ERA over 21 appearances, with a 1.98 ERA on the road. He throws his curveball 30.6% of the time, and opponents are batting just .214 against the pitch. Herget hasn’t allowed a run in his last five appearances.
• Rookie Juan Mejia is running a 3.07 ERA and has the best xFIP on the team at 2.86. He’s striking 30.4% of the batters he faces.

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Does that sound like a good team? The Rockies are threatening for a sweep! You could argue that they’ve got a favorable pitching matchup today. They have a few relievers with solid ERAs and a bunch of hitters who are doing great, provided you look at them through precisely the right viewpoint. No one needs to know that they’re 1-7 on Wednesdays.