Marc Hulet Prospects Chat – 6/14/13
| 12:46 |
: Hi all… we’ll begin in about 15 minutes and will be chatting about prospects, draft signings… basically whatever you’d like so feel free to get your questions in now.
|
| 12:56 |
Maikel Franco…major helium? Top 50 in the game at this point? |
| 12:57 |
: Definite helium… I’ll be doing an update Top 50 prospects list in July but I don’t currently expect him to be on it… but we’ll see.
|
| 12:57 |
Miguel Sano and Xander Bogaerts. Who has the better power potential? And between the two, who is more likely to realize that potential? |
| 12:57 |
: Sano has better power — pure 80. Bogaerts is a more well-rounded player… both are top prospects, though. I’d love to have either one on my team…
|
| 12:58 |
Wheeler coming up Tuesday. Obviously, there is a lot of pressure, especially considering what Harvey did last year and that, at least until this year, Wheeler was always considered the better of the two. Does that have any impact on his performance and how the FO views his performance? |
| 1:00 |
: Wheeler has been dealing with pressure and expectations since his prep days so I think he’ll be OK in that regard… I talked to the Mets front office in the winter and they were understandably over-the-moon about their young pitching depth. Having other guys like Montero and Syndergaard helps lessen the expectations on Wheeler.
|
| 1:00 |
Is Gerrit Cole an order of magnitude better than Gausman? |
| 1:01 |
: Cole is not “way better” than Gausman but I would probably favor the guy with the plus breaking ball and meh change, over the plus change up and meh breaking ball… Gausman, though, edges Cole in the command/control category…
|
| 1:01 |
What do you think of D’Arnaud? Comps? How serious is his injury risk moving forward? What percentage of glass is his body actually made of? |
| 1:03 |
: The good news is that the injuries are more of the freak variety as opposed to chronic… But some guys tend to just be injury prone and you have to hope d’Arnaud is not one of them… I’m pretty bad at comps, so I’ll have to refrain.
|
| 1:03 |
thoughts on Kyle Zimmer and Matt Barnes? Are either worth holding on to on my keeper roster? |
| 1:04 |
: Definitely disappointing seasons so far for both but the talent and stuff is still there so hopefully they’ll figure out what to do to turn things around. Unless you have seriously better options to pick up I might hold onto them a little longer.
|
| 1:04 |
When does Erlin get another shot? |
| 1:05 |
: I’m sure he’ll get another shot… but his ceiling is that of a No. 4 guy so if another, higher-ceiling, arm looks ready than they’ll probably get the nod over him…
|
| 1:06 |
Marc, if The Rockies are still in the race come September is there any chance we see Jonathan gray in the bullpen or make a few spot starts? |
| 1:08 |
: I don’t profess to understand how the Rockies front office operates but I’d hesitate to add him to the 40 man roster that quickly…. you start burning option years before you need to. With that said, if he looks awesome once he hits pro ball and the big league pitching is a problem then you certainly have to consider it.
|
| 1:09 |
Do you see Carlos Martinez making any starts in the big leagues this year? |
| 1:10 |
: The Cards are blessed with some good pitching depth so a few injuries would probably have to occur before that happens — but he has the talent to be pretty darn good, even as a starter (not that he’s a finished product).
|
| 1:10 |
Alcantara or Quinn? Which SS do you like the most? Does either one project to have much power if they make the Big Show? |
| 1:12 |
: Power isn’t really a huge component of either prospects’ game but Alcantara is a more rounded player with the bat and definitely has some gap power. His power output has improved each year so he could surprise but he doesn’t have the huge frame to suggest even 15-20 HR MLB potential.
|
| 1:12 |
I know it’s still early, but do you see any prospects from the 13 draft having a chance of making an impact in 2014? who? |
| 1:14 |
: You’d have to be talking about the college guys, obviously, and looking at the first round I don’t see a ton of future impact stars… maybe some good average to above-average contributors but…..
I’d say the Top 3 guys have a shot to get to the majors quickly — Appel, Bryant and Gray but I don’t know how big of an impact they’ll have right away… |
| 1:14 |
Is yasiel puig the greatest player of all time or merely the best player in baseball? |
| 1:16 |
: Neither? Start screams small-sample size. He’s been off-the-charts good but we’ve already seen signs of the maturity issues (brawl) that have been talked about and the scouting reports are still being compiled. Let’s see how he’s doing in August before we declare him the best player in baseball…
|
| 1:16 |
I missed picking up Cole and Gausman has let me down. Who should I pick up now before there is a rush to help put my fantasy squad over the top and give me a possible keeper in the process? |
| 1:16 |
: Zack Wheeler should be up next week and he has a high ceiling…
|
| 1:16 |
Are you concerned about Gausman’s struggles in the majors, or just growing pains? I’ve enjoyed watching his stuff, but it looks like he needs to work on his command. |
| 1:17 |
About the Jays draft, do you think they made an actual conscious decision to draft so many pitchers early or was this just a fluke case of their BPA all being pitchers? |
| 1:17 |
: Not every top prospect dominates the minute he arrives, and it’s important to remember that. His early MLB struggles will, in no way, impact the way I view him as a prospect.
|
| 1:18 |
: oops… sorry about that… still getting used to my new laptop…
|
| 1:19 |
: I don’t know much about their new scouting director and AA’s decision making has befuddled me recently so my answer would have to be: I dunno, but I don’t THINK so… I would imagine (hope) they just went with their draft board and took the best player available
|
| 1:19 |
: Their system is pretty barren now so they need depth just about everywhere
|
| 1:19 |
Upside on Albert Almora in the show?… he is having a nice year albeit in a pretty small sample size. |
| 1:20 |
: I love Almora. Big fan. He’s going to be a very good all around player and probably an all-star type career if everything breaks right for him.
|
| 1:21 |
Hi Mike. What are the Dodgers going to do with Joc Pederson if he keeps playing like a polished prospect? |
| 1:22 |
: Hopefully you don’t mind that it’s Marc and not Mike Newman… depth is never a problem… as you’ve seen Puig has already been bitten by the injury bug. If they don’t trade Ethier, I could see Pederson eventually getting dealt for depth at another position.
|
| 1:22 |
Bogaerts! Is there still a reasonable chance he doesn’t pan out or are all signs pointing to a productive pro career? Care to put percentages on a few different potential outcomes for him (bust, short unspectacular career, perennial all-star, etc.)? |
| 1:23 |
: All players have bust potential, even if they’ve had a successful two or three years in the majors so I can’t really give you an answer but with each successful hurdle, it becomes more and more likely that he’ll reach his potential.
|
| 1:24 |
Why do you make of Zimmer’s struggles in hi-A so far? |
| 1:25 |
: From what I’ve heard (having not seen him this year yet) it’s mainly due to poor command and the need to bring a consistent effort/approach each time out…
|
| 1:25 |
Jacob Turner is having a nice start to this year despite mediocrity the last year. Will it continue? Is he going to live up to that #2 starter hype? |
| 1:25 |
: I think people are lowering expectations at this point and hoping for a No.3 ceiling…
|
| 1:25 |
Has the performance of Shelby miller created unrealistic expectations for other rookie pitchers (gausman, Cole, wheeler, etc)? |
| 1:27 |
: I don’t see why it would… it’s not like Miller is the first rookie pitcher to have a ton of success… every prospect is different and every experience is different… anyone around the game is going to understand that. I don’t think the pitchers themselves, either, will get caught up with that…
|
| 1:27 |
Any suggestions for books on scouting? |
| 1:28 |
: As far as I know there really aren’t any — nothing recent, anyway. Your best bet is to go to a minor league game or Spring Training, sit near the scouts and try to chat one up…
|
| 1:28 |
Rumors of Phil Bickford asking for 4+ million. A) Are these rumors true? and B)Is he seriously serious? |
| 1:29 |
: Well, rumors are by definition unproven so I have no idea if they are or not… but I doubt it. The Jays probably wouldn’t take him 10th overall without having an idea what he’d be willing to sign for… they are typically a very prepared org when it comes to info like that.
|
| 1:30 |
Nick Kingham — what round would he have gone if he were draft illegible this year? And, if you have him taken in Round 1, at about what point would he have gone off the board? |
| 1:32 |
: Probably a first round talent… but a lot of projecting where would depend on who he was up against… so If we’re considering the other guys actually drafted this year then maybe somewhere in the middle of the round… tough question because I wasn’t a big fan of a lot of the players that actually went in the first round.
|
| 1:32 |
Rank ‘Em: A OFs: Brinson, NWilliams, Winker, JBell |
| 1:34 |
: Hmmm… Bell, Brinson, Williams, Winker… I might flip-flop the last two if you were to ask me again in two days, though… it’s pretty close.
|
| 1:34 |
How concerning is the injury to Kyle Crick? What have you heard? |
| 1:36 |
: injuries to young pitchers always worry me but I haven’t heard anything you haven’t… he’s got the kind of frame that suggests he’d be pretty durable so hopefully this is just a minor issue
|
| 1:36 |
Where does Kris Bryant eventually end up playing in Chicago? Will Soler block him at third (assuming he is blocked by Castro at SS)? |
| 1:38 |
: Baez potentially blocks him at third and he moves to the outfield and Soler ends up at the other corner spot. Soriano will be gone sooner rather than later so there really isn’t anyone blocking Bryant.
|
| 1:39 |
Have you seen Orlando Arcia? Thoughts on him? |
| 1:40 |
: His injury kept me from seeing him last year and I haven’t got a look at him yet, but I will in preparation for the Top 15 prospects lists this fall… I’m looking forward to it. I’ve heard good things and the numbers are impressive for such a young player (and one who lost a whole year of development)
|
| 1:40 |
How good will Sonny Gray be when he finally gets a rotation spot? |
| 1:40 |
: I’m thinking maybe a No. 3 guy if he sticks in the rotation.
|
| 1:41 |
Mike Olt seems to have turned things around since coming of the DL. Is he still considered a top prospect? |
| 1:41 |
: He’s still among the best the Rangers system… I’ve always said that he was a little overhyped so I’m not among his biggest supporters but I think he’ll still develop into a solid big league contributor.
|
| 1:41 |
Prospects whose stock has jumped the most so far this season? |
| 1:43 |
: Kind of hard to say but Puig definitely jumps to mind… Rafael Montero, George Springer… I’m sure I’m forgetting a ton of guys.
|
| 1:44 |
Rank the following Sox pitching prospects: Webster, De la Rosa, Barnes, Ranaudo, Owens, Ball |
| 1:49 |
: Webster, Owens, Barnes, Ranaudo, Ball… with de la Rosa no longer a rookie… and yes I’m using that to avoid including him because I’m not quite sure where I’d put him.
|
| 1:49 |
When do the Jays bring up Marcus Stroman? What do you think of his arm? Thanks. |
| 1:50 |
: I hope they keep him in the minors this year… He’s still inconsistent and his repertoire needs some polish. It’s probably a lost year for the Jays (again) so there is no need to rush another pitcher.
|
| 1:50 |
Austin Meadows & Reese McGuire — top-10 prospects in the Pirates system? |
| 1:50 |
: Good system… yes on Meadows and probably on McGuire.
|
| 1:50 |
What are your thoughts on the Cubs taking Kris Bryant? |
| 1:50 |
: Love it, I would have taken him first overall if it had been up to me.
|
| 1:50 |
Obvious first question: does Bogaerts see the majors this year? |
| 1:51 |
: It’s not out of the realm of possibility but I doubt he plays a major role — maybe a September call up…
|
| 1:52 |
Wilmer Flores is on fire! |
| 1:52 |
: Put him out, dammit
|
| 1:52 |
Is something wrong with Justin Upton? |
| 1:53 |
: welcome to the Justin Upton that everyone knows and loves… extreme talent but inconsistent as hell.
|
| 1:53 |
Can Gerrit Cole keep a reasonable performance level for rest of season? I’m thinking/hoping for something like Harvey’s debut. |
| 1:54 |
: Hoping for the Harvey debut might be a bit much but based on what I saw of him in the minors, I think he can be a solid contributor this year as long as your expectations are No. 3-4 starter type results
|
| 1:54 |
Now that he’s started hitting again, what do you think the Pirates have in Tony Sanchez? |
| 1:55 |
: I don’t think anybody really knows at this point… a platoon big league catcher would be pretty sweet at this point… with the hope for a little more.
|
| 1:55 |
Anthony Meo, Zeke Spruill, Evan Marshall, Kyle Winkler and David Holmberg have all been very underwhelming for the Diamondbacks this year. Do you see any of them improving during the rest of the year? |
| 1:57 |
: Holmberg has been underwhelming? He’s one of my favorite under-the-radar guys… The K rate is down but he’s not a strikeout pitcher and that tends to happen at the AA level for those kinds of pitchers. Don’t underestimate him… He’s not a stud but could be a No. 3 or 4 guy down the road.
|
| 1:57 |
The Cubs’ Almora: best guess ETA … as late as ’16?? |
| 1:58 |
: Quite possibly… he’s only in Low-A ball now.
|
| 1:58 |
Who’s your top Cubs prospect with Bryant now in the fold? |
| 1:58 |
: I think it’s still Baez for now.
|
| 1:58 |
Who is the biggest winner out of this year’s draft? |
| 2:00 |
: On early impressions, I like what the Yankees, Red Sox and Pirates did.
|
| 2:00 |
What say yee about the Gregory Polanco promotion?? |
| 2:00 |
: Excited to see what he can do in Double-A… definitely a rising talent.
|
| 2:01 |
Between Travis D’Arnaud, Jonathan Singleton, George Springer, Hak-Ju lee, and Xander Bogaerts, which do we see first? |
| 2:01 |
: Lee is out for the year with an injury so it won’t be him. Maybe Singleton. Then again, maybe Bogaerts.
|
| 2:02 |
Is Cesar Puello a top 100 guy now? Any higher? |
| 2:02 |
: Not a shoe-in for me, no.
|
| 2:02 |
Will Michael choice get the call this year? Why are your thoughts on his future? |
| 2:04 |
: Very good raw power but he hasn’t exactly lit the upper levels of the minors on fire. He has to be added to the 40 man this fall so maybe he gets a September call up if he hits well in the second half
|
| 2:04 |
Do you see Burch Smith as more of a relief pitcher or a starting pitcher? Since his short stint in the majors, he seems to be doing well in the PCL. |
| 2:04 |
: I’m still undecided but I’m leaning towards reliever at this point.
|
| 2:04 |
What do you think is the appropriate amount of time between the draft and the signing deadline? I feel like a lot of the signings go down to the wire just because of the nature of negotiations. However, there still needs to be time to travel, get physicals, etc. July 15 acceptable? or move it up closer to the draft? |
| 2:05 |
: I think it’s OK where it is… still gives guys a chance to get a full month and a half of minor league play before the year wraps up. If you really want to get out and play that badly do what a lot of guys are doing right now and sign your contact.
|
| 2:08 |
: Paul Swydan and I were talking about this the other day… I think a lot of guys are signing earlier now because they’ve seen all the 2012 draftees that have made it to the majors already — due to the fact they got their careers started earlier than in past years when the signing deadline was later… it’s a big motivator because you potentially speed up Super 2, arbitration, free agency, etc. and start making the mega-big-bucks sooner…. So who cares if you lose out on $100,000 or $300,000 when holding out to the last minute…?
|
| 2:08 |
True false: Myers is a regular for the rays by July 1st |
| 2:08 |
: I’m not 100% sold that he’s ready…
|
| 2:08 |
What’re your thoughts on two-way players like Trey Ball being drafted so high? Very generally speaking, I think fans are skeptical of 2 way guys due to their relative inexperience and the fear that their high ranking is inflated by their having a “fall-back position.” I’m happy with the Trey Ball pick, and I assume the Sox saw something in Meadows they didn’t like, but until we see Ball pitch at A+ or AA all Sox fans are going to be filled with the fear that he was |
| 2:11 |
: On the flip side, you have a guy that flashed first round potential as a pitcher even though he didn’t focus on the role full-time… maybe he becomes a monster star with the added focus. Look at someone like Casey Janssen or Shaun Marcum, they weren’t first rounders and didn’t exactly develop into superstars but they were two-way guys in college and have both exceed expectations since focusing on pitching full time.
|
| 2:11 |
With Beachy coming back soon-ish, someone has to get bumped from Atlanta’s rotation. Alex Wood won’t start this season right? And maybe not next season either? |
| 2:12 |
: They’re going to have trouble finding a spot for Teheran to pitch so no, I don’t think Wood gets in the starting rotation this year… I wouldn’t commit to making a decision on next year just yet, though.
|
| 2:12 |
Between Kyle Crick and Martin Agosta which Giants pitching prospect will benefit the most from Dave Righetti’s coaching? |
| 2:13 |
: They’re both impressive… and can both benefit from good coaching.
|
| 2:13 |
Can Jedd Gyorko be a middle of the order bat? He seemed to be on pace for 20 HRs before he went on the DL and this is in Petco. |
| 2:15 |
: I’ve seen a lot of players batting cleanup this year that I never thought I’d see in that position so anything is possible. I could see him in the three-hole.
|
| 2:15 |
People say zunino is like arencibia but do you think he’s closer to present day Matt wieters at least offensively speaking? |
| 2:15 |
: Yikes, Arencibia? That’s harsh…
|
| 2:16 |
Javier Baez hit four home runs on Tuesday, but is also on pace to put up his best strikeout and walk numbers in any month of his career this month. With it being a small sample size, this of course could just be a hot streak, but have you heard anything coming out the FSL regarding if Baez has started making the necessary adjustments? |
| 2:17 |
: Baez is always going to be an aggressive player, it’s just the type of player that he is… but, yeah, he’s making strides on all aspects of his game
|
| 2:18 |
Why is Barnes’season disappointing? looks pretty good if you acknowledge the .374 BABIP, no? |
| 2:20 |
: He’s been hittable (even if you attribute some to luck) and inconsistent… and just hasn’t taken the big step forward some of the other guys in the league have… You want big improvements from your top guys each year… At best, he’s about as good as he was last year.
|
| 2:20 |
Yelich potential is….. |
| 2:21 |
: Above-average player capable of providing some star-caliber seasons.
|
| 2:21 |
George Springer seems to have all the talent in the world, do you think he makes enough contact to be anything more then the Next Mike Cameron |
| 2:21 |
: I think he’ll be a better hitter than Cameron but the contact issues are going to drag down his batting average, for sure.
|
| 2:21 |
Where does Mark Appel slot into the Astros farm system rankings? And how much has Mike Foltynewicz moved up with his performance this year? |
| 2:24 |
: He’s definitely in the running for top prospect in the system and certainly in the Top 3. I had Folty at No. 7 earlier this year and he’s certainly moved up into the Top 5 at least.
|
| 2:24 |
I heard phegley might not get the call because cws wants to save face in trusting flowers o succeed? Thoughts? |
| 2:25 |
: I don’t buy it… seems like a silly reason.
|
| 2:25 |
Should we be worried at all about Kyle Cricks walk rate? |
| 2:26 |
: Nope, he’s young and has a solid delivery.
|
| 2:26 |
Re: Erlin. Why is his ceiling so low when his minor league stats suggest that he is much better (10k/9, 6 k/bb). Just because a guy doesnt throw 95 shouldn’t limit his ceiling? And he is left handed! |
| 2:27 |
: Yeah, his stuff is modest and plays up because of his plus control… I’ve seen him pitch a few times and he’s never wowed me. I just can’t see his stuff playing up to the point where he’s a frontline guy.
|
| 2:28 |
There’s no questioning Joey Gallo’s power. Currently leading MILB with 21. Can he overcome his K issues or are we looking at a Dunn/Reynolds guy? |
| 2:29 |
: He’s still young. Big K numbers in the low minors are not the nail in a coffin but you definitely want to see him trimming those as he moves up. If we’re still seeing 40% K rates next year, then I start to worry. +30% after a full double-A year then I’m definitely having Russell Branyan comps jumping into my head.
|
| 2:30 |
To use Gray in September you don’t have to add him to the 40 man … I think. |
| 2:30 |
: You do. You cannot call up a player without adding them to the 40 man… you don’t use up an option, though, as long as he doesn’t get sent back to the minors. As soon as you assign him to a minor league team in 2014, though, you use an option if he’s on the 40.
|
| 2:31 |
Nick Castellanos impact this year? |
| 2:31 |
: No
|
| 2:31 |
: But he might get a call up… just hasn’t dominated AAA
|
| 2:32 |
Wisler and Fried ready for 2015? |
| 2:32 |
: Seems too early for Fried, for sure.
|
| 2:32 |
Has Daniel Norris regained some of his prospect status? |
| 2:33 |
: He’s pretty raw, but I never really dinged him too much on the early struggles…
|
| 2:33 |
Paxton, Walker, Hultzen….which finishes with the highest career WAR? |
| 2:33 |
: Walker
|
| 2:33 |
Rafeal De Paula: Whats his stuff like? |
| 2:33 |
: Nasty. Tough to square up his heater
|
| 2:33 |
What are your thoughts on Kolten Wong? |
| 2:34 |
: Potential solid regular probably not a star
|
| 2:34 |
What do you make of Daniel Fields’ 2013 season? Has he returned to prospect status? And is Jordan Lennerton a legit prospect based on his destruction of the International Leauge? |
| 2:35 |
: Not really. Fields maybe makes the majors as a platoon or bench guy. Lennerton is probably a quad-A guy.
|
| 2:35 |
Is Peter O’brien a legit prospect? Second round pick from last season, catcher that is hittin 330/400/630 |
| 2:36 |
: I like O’Brien but he’s a college product in low-A so I need to see him against more age-appropriate competition before i fully buy into the bat. And the defense needs some work
|
| 2:36 |
Does Robert Stephenson have the kind of stuff of a future 1 or 2 |
| 2:36 |
: Yes, love him.
|
| 2:36 |
Does Robert Stephenson jump into the top 25 prospects mid-year? |
| 2:37 |
: Potentially….
|
| 2:37 |
Who will be called up first: Springer or Singleton? |
| 2:37 |
: Singleton
|
| 2:38 |
: Gotta go… but thanks for the questions… sorry I couldn’t get to them all… hit me up with questions on Twitter @marchulet if you want to keep chatting…
|
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
I’ve never seen a prospect chat host hedge their answers as much as this particular chat. No Mawl-Blez! Maha-Bwills!