Marlon Byrd Likes Chicago

Little has gone right for the Chicago Cubs this season. The club’s starting pitchers boast the second-best xFIP in the National League and the defense isn’t too shabby, either (fifth in UZR). Unfortunately, those strong performances have gone to waste due to mediocre relief pitching (11th in the NL in xFIP) and offense (12th in wOBA). Even after last night’s 1-0 victory over the White Sox, the Cubs have a 28-35 record. At 7.5 games back of the division-leading Cardinals and eight games behind the Dodgers in the Wild Card chase, the Cubs have less than a seven percent shot of making the playoffs, according to CoolStandings.com. Yes, Lloyd, I’m telling you there’s a chance. It’s not looking good, though.

While there are many reasons as to why 2010 is shaping up to be yet another aggravating season in Wrigleyville, Marlon Byrd surely isn’t among them. The 32-year-old center fielder, inked to a three-year, $15 million deal over the off-season, is enjoying a career year.

Byrd’s batting .333/.375/.543, with a .400 wOBA that ranks in the top 20 among qualified big league hitters. He’s not walking (3.6 BB%) or whiffing (13.7 K%) much — he’s just racking up extra-base hits and getting some fortunate bounces on balls put in play. Byrd’s ISO is a career-high .209, while his .354 BABIP is 31 points higher than his expected BABIP and 29 points above his career BABIP in the majors. Defensively, Byrd has rated as average to slightly below average in center during his career. But he owns a +17.3 UZR/150 and +10 DRS in 2010. With three Wins Above Replacement, Byrd places seventh among all MLB position players. Not bad for a guy whose career has been on life support a couple of times over the years.

A Georgia prep star in baseball and football, Byrd attended Georgia Tech but suffered a devastating right leg injury — three procedures were performed on the leg, and at one point doctors considered amputation. He transferred to Georgia Perimeter Junior College, where his health and stock improved enough for the Phillies to pluck him in the 10th round of the 1999 draft.

Byrd emerged as a top prospect, cracking Baseball America’s top 100 list prior to the 2002 and 2003 seasons. He amassed 3.5 WAR rookie season in ’03, proving himself an asset at the plate (116 wRC+) and in the field (+5.1 UZR/150 in CF). At 25, Byrd looked poised to be a quality contributor for the Phightins for years to come.

But then he imploded. Byrd plummeted to -1.6 WAR in 2004, and followed that up with 0.9 WAR in part-time play during a 2005 season in which he was traded to the nascent Nationals. He split 2006 flailing in Washington (.294 wOBA, 0.4 WAR). But he hit fairly well in Triple-A (.369 wOBA). Byrd latched on with the Rangers prior to 2007, signing a minor league pact. After raking with the RedHawks to begin the year (.424 wOBA), Byrd was called up to the big leagues and proceeded to revive his career in Arlington.

From ’07 to 2009, Byrd was Mr. Average — he had 2.3 WAR per season, with a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA 14 percent above the norm (114 wRC+) but a glove that was a couple runs below average per 150 defensive games. CHONE had Byrd pegged for 2.6 WAR in 2010, a mark that he has already exceeded. Barring injury, he’ll easily surpass his rookie WAR total, too.

Odds are Byrd won’t remain one of the absolute best players in the majors. But ZiPS projects a .367 wOBA for the rest of the season. That, coupled with average D, would continue to make him a valuable starter. Byrd has taken a circuitous route to big league success, but he’s looking like a free agent coup for the Cubs.