Matrix Reloaded: February 13, 2026
Spring (training) has sprung, and with it comes another chock-full-of-transactions Matrix Reloaded. I’ll keep the weekly roundups going as long as the transaction gods give me things to write about, but the free agent market is all but completely picked over now. As always, summary statistics can be found at the bottom of the Matrix.
A Panoply of Primary Pitchers
With so many starting pitchers signing in the past week, I’ll structure this opening section a little differently than usual, going over each pitcher/team combo in a vacuum and then rounding up which teams could still use starters and who’s left to be signed.
Orioles Sign Chris Bassitt for One Year, $18.5 Million
In my head, the Orioles went from being “the team likeliest to sign Framber Valdez” to “well, maybe they’re content with their rotation options because I’m not sure there’s a big enough upgrade left now” to “well, how do they sort this all out with Bassitt?” Nobody deserves to get bumped from the rotation if the sextet of Bassitt, Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Shane Baz, Zach Eflin, and Dean Kremer all make it out of spring training healthy, so it’s no surprise that a six-man rotation is on the table.
While Bassitt is no Valdez, I understand wanting to have a guy like him around. He’s durable and is basically the same pitcher he’s always been, and the Orioles have more injury concerns than your typical rotation. Eflin is coming off back surgery, and even though he’s a full go in spring training, you never know how he’ll respond to game action; Bradish is in his first full season after Tommy John; Rogers has made just 47 starts the last three years; and Baz has an extensive injury history his own. If everyone settles in, there’s a bit of logjam even beyond the six, though. Tyler Wells has already been relegated to the bullpen (though he’s staying stretched out in camp), and there isn’t a clear path for Cade Povich or top pitching prospect Trey Gibson to get out of Triple-A. While Bassitt’s signing could leave those three in the lurch, these are the types of problems that good teams like to have, and Bassitt’s only around for a year. Rogers and Eflin are both set to hit free agency after the season as well, so it’s not as if younger arms have no place with the big club.
Rays Sign Nick Martinez for One Year, $13 Million
Martinez accepted the Reds’ $21.05 million qualifying offer last offseason and responded with career bests in innings (165.2) and games started (26), though he took a big step back in terms of his run prevention, strikeout, and walk numbers compared to 2024. While his ERA was better as a reliever, his performance was ultimately quite comparable: His 26 starts produced a 4.32 FIP, with a 4.39 in his 14 relief appearances. Unsurprisingly considering the level of investment, the Rays are counting him as a member of the rotation entering camp, though that obviously doesn’t preclude them from moving him to the bullpen at a later point, as the Reds did last year.
Martinez will join Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Pepiot as definite rotation arms, with Steven Matz (signed to a two-year, $15 million deal earlier this offseason) figuring to have a leg up for a job, too. The real wild card is Shane McClanahan, who missed the last two seasons. If he’s not ready quite yet, or if the Rays want to slow-play his return, they’ve got Joe Boyle, Joe Rock, and Ian Seymour on the 40-man.
Tigers Sign Justin Verlander for One Year, $13 Million ($11 Million Deferred)
It didn’t seem as if the Tigers would be in the market for another starting pitcher after signing Framber Valdez to a three-year megadeal, but the news of Verlander’s home coming was quickly followed by word that Reese Olson would undergo shoulder surgery and miss the entire season.
It was a tale of two halves, but JV quietly ended up posting a strong season with the Giants, even though he didn’t earn his first win until July 23. His fastball was actually harder in 2025 than 2024, averaging just under 94 mph, and he threw his slider more than ever. Now in his age-43 season, he’s 34 wins shy of 300 and is running out of time to get to that incredible milestone, though if he keeps pitching like he did last year, he might just keep going. The Tigers rotation now looks complete, with Tarik Skubal, Valdez, Verlander, Jack Flaherty, and Casey Mize. Drew Anderson, a $7 million signee this offseason, should work out of the bullpen as a long man, and Troy Melton and Keider Montero are important depth pieces.
Rockies Sign Jose Quintana ($6 Million) and Tomoyuki Sugano ($5.1 Million) to One-Year Contracts
The reshaping of the Rockies rotation with veterans on one-year deals is complete, with Quintana and Sugano joining Michael Lorenzen ($8 million) behind longtime no. 1 starter Kyle Freeland. Chase Dollander will probably be the fifth starter, though Ryan Feltner and Tanner Gordon are also in the mix. Quintana (131.2 innings) pitched less than Sugano (157) last year, but was quite a bit better when he was on the mound in terms of ERA, xERA, and FIP. Neither of these two (or Lorenzen, for that matter) would say so out loud, but they’re likely trying to pitch themselves out of Colorado and onto a new team by the trade deadline.
Athletics Sign Aaron Civale for One Year, $6 Million
Civale bounced from the Brewers to the White Sox to the Cubs last year, while also bouncing between the rotation and bullpen. All in all, he had a 4.62 FIP in 18 starts and a 4.67 FIP in five relief appearances spanning eight innings; he also turned in a scoreless, 13-out relief outing in the playoffs. In Sacramento, the fly ball-heavy righty is met with a tough ballpark fit but an assured rotation spot behind Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs. Jacob Lopez and Luis Morales, who both experienced mini breakouts in 2025, figure to have the best odds of grabbing the final two spots, but Luis Medina, Gunnar Hoglund, Mason Barnett, and Braden Nett also have a chance. Top pitching prospect Gage Jump could debut this year, and last year’s first round pick, Jamie Arnold, could move quickly as well.
Marlins Sign Chris Paddack for One Year, $4 Million
Paddack had the healthiest season of his major league career, coming just four innings shy of qualifying for the ERA title between the Tigers and Twins. Unfortunately, the increased volume came with decreased production. His ERA, FIP, and strikeout rate were all career worsts, though he maintained the low walk rate that’s been a hallmark of his career to this point. Paddack, Sandy Alcantara, and Eury Pérez have three spots in the rotation, with the final two spots most likely going to two of Max Meyer, Braxton Garrett, and Janson Junk. Top prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling could debut this year as well.
Nationals Sign Miles Mikolas for One Year, $2.25 Million
After trading MacKenzie Gore to the Rangers, the Nationals finalized a deal with Mikolas, who if nothing else has been extremely durable the past four years; he’s made at least 31 starts each season. For such a low guarantee, he isn’t necessarily going to hold on to a rotation spot for the whole year (it’s worth noting that he has incentives that cover relief outings, too), but he’ll begin as a key stabilizing force in a rotation with a bunch of question marks. Foster Griffin is the other lock for the rotation, and Cade Cavalli should be close to one. The choices for the last two spots include Josiah Gray, Jake Irvin, Brad Lord, Andrew Alvarez, Mitchell Parker, Ken Waldichuk, Jake Eder, and Luis Perales.
White Sox Sign Erick Fedde for One Year, $1.5 Million
Fedde is looking to recapture the magic he had with the White Sox in 2024 before being traded to the Cardinals at that year’s deadline. Last year was split between the Cardinals, Braves, and Brewers, and Fedde failed to reach replacement level. For such a small commitment, he probably isn’t assured a rotation spot, so we can throw him in the pile of arms competing for jobs after Shane Smith and Anthony Kay.
Rangers Sign Jordan Montgomery for One Year, $1.2 Million
Montgomery underwent Tommy John surgery at the tail end of spring training last year, so he probably won’t be back in the majors until May at the absolute earliest. But upon his return, he could have an impact similar to 2025 Patrick Corbin, who signed a modest deal with the Rangers just before last season started and ended up being a key innings-eater throughout the year.
Who Still Needs Starters?
Looking at the worst-projected rotations is a good way to start answering this question, though it’s far from perfect. At the very bottom, the Rockies, Nationals, White Sox, and Cardinals have probably already addressed their rotations satisfactorily enough, considering that they’re not really trying to win and need to save innings for young players, rough as those innings may be. But every team above them is at least ostensibly trying to contend.
Of those contenders, a few jump out at me:
- The Padres have a strong front three of Michael King, Nick Pivetta, and Joe Musgrove, but the final two spots in the rotation are huge question marks.
- The Diamondbacks’ starting five looks settled, but there’s little depth beyond them.
- The Cubs also have a set fivesome, but you’ll see on the Matrix that they’re interested in Zac Gallen, so I’m keeping an eye on them for him specifically.
- The Braves project well thanks to Chris Sale, but they just lost Spencer Schwellenbach for at least two months.
Which Starters Are Left?
Gallen is the clear headliner here. He’s the only remaining free agent who received a qualifying offer, which is certainly complicating his market. Gallen pitched like someone who would probably sign for a one-year pillow contract, or at least a contract offering him the opportunity to opt out after the first year. But if you have to give up a draft pick to sign the right-hander, why risk him leaving after a year? Something like Framber Valdez’s contract structure (for way, way less money) could work, though, giving Gallen the chance to hit the market again in two years as he enters his age-32 season.
Beyond Gallen, the only two starters I’m 100% certain will get big league deals before Opening Day are Lucas Giolito and Zack Littell. Both of them were rock-solid in 2025, and Giolito was viewed as a possibility to receive a QO himself. Max Scherzer should get one on reputation alone, but he may wait to sign until the season starts. Griffin Canning, Patrick Corbin, Tyler Anderson, Germán Márquez, and Walker Buehler could all find guaranteed work, too.
A Significant Swinger Signing
Pirates Sign Marcell Ozuna for One Year, $12 Million
Effect on the Pirates
When the Pirates finished in second place for Eugenio Suárez a few weeks ago, I wrote that the team still needed righty power, but that Ozuna would be an inelegant fit despite the Buccos’ interest. Well, the Ozuna signing has come to pass, and the biggest question isn’t whether he will be more like 2024 or 2025 Ozuna, but how they’ll align their defense now that they have a full-time DH. That was the puzzle that I had to solve on Monday morning when I updated the RosterResource page. I’m not particularly pleased with where we ended up, and I don’t even have to write out the lineup card!
To be clear, Ozuna’s middle-of-the-order pop and plate discipline are both nice to have; the Pirates’ projected lineup really does look notably better, as long as you don’t look at the position column. When Ozuna’s in the lineup, which should be just about all the time, the Pirates will either have to have a first baseman in the outfield (Ryan O’Hearn) or a first baseman elsewhere on the infield (Spencer Horwitz at second or third). With the deal not yet official, it’s unclear exactly what the plan is, and it could get muddier if the Pirates go on to add another bat. For example, they could still fit in a new third baseman and make Gold Glover Jared Triolo a backup infielder.
Effect on Other Teams
It’s not known which other teams in particular had interest in Ozuna, but the free agent market is almost completely bereft of power bats now; Rhys Hoskins is basically it. The trade market has more options: The Astros are dangling Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker; Spencer Steer is now a super-utilityman in Cincinnati, but could start elsewhere; and the Red Sox still have one too many outfielders, though a trade there isn’t at all a given.
Effect on Similar Players
With Ozuna signed, nobody similar is left and I’m not expecting an eight-figure position player deal the rest of the offseason.
Rapid-Fire One-Year Deals
Dodgers Sign Evan Phillips for $6.5 Million
The Dodgers’ former closer will miss about the first half of the season in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, but he still secured a higher guarantee than the $6.1 million MLBTradeRumors projected he would earn before his non-tender. To me, that says the Dodgers simply didn’t want to commit a 40-man spot to Phillips at that early stage of the offseason; the non-tender was more logistical than it was financial. With the 60-day IL back in play now that pitchers and catchers have reported, Phillips has been moved there to make room for Enrique Hernández. When healthy, Phillips will join Edwin Díaz, Tanner Scott, Blake Treinen, and Alex Vesia as the top back-end options in the Los Angeles ‘pen.
Dodgers Sign Enrique Hernández for $4.5 Million
Like Phillips, Hernández will miss part of the season thanks to an elbow injury; he went under the knife last November and probably won’t be back until June. Once he’s back, he’ll occupy his usual Swiss Army Knife role all around the diamond. Last year, he played 28 games at first base, 27 at third, 23 in left, 18 at second, and eight in center.
Yankees Sign Paul Goldschmidt for $4 Million
Goldschmidt signed for $12.5 million last offseason to be the Yankees’ starting first baseman, but he ended up losing that job to Ben Rice by the end of the season. He’s back for less than a third of the money to fill a much more niche role as Rice’s platoon partner, and it remains to be seen how rigid a platoon it will be; Rice was above-average against lefties last year, albeit in limited action.
Goldy was great against southpaws in 2025, with a 169 wRC+, but he tailed off against them as the season went on: From June 1 to the end of the season, his wRC+ against lefties was 87. If that pattern holds and Rice continues to show well enough even without the platoon advantage, Goldschmidt may be limited to even less playing time.
Athletics Sign Scott Barlow for $2 Million
A few days before signing Civale, the A’s added Barlow to their bullpen; he’s their second addition there, along with Mark Leiter Jr. If nothing else, Barlow and his flowing locks are always ready, willing, and able to pitch. His appearance totals since 2019: 61, 32 (out of 60 games!), 71, 69, 63, 63, and a career-best 75 in 2025, his lone season with the Reds. He’s in the mix to earn saves, along with Leiter, Hogan Harris, and Justin Sterner.
Brewers Sign Gary Sánchez for $1.75 Million
Sánchez was ravaged by injuries in 2025, limiting him to just 30 games. He’ll look to bounce back in a familiar spot; he was William Contreras’ backup in Milwaukee in 2023. The days of El Kraken are probably long gone, but he’s still got pop. Sánchez was horrid behind the plate last year (-8 DRS, -5 FRV in just 175.1 innings back there), but some of his missed time was due to wrist inflammation, and it’s not hard to see how that could’ve affected his fielding.
Diamondbacks Sign Paul Sewald for $1.5 Million
Sewald couldn’t stay healthy last year, with just 19.2 innings between the Guardians and Tigers after departing Arizona for Cleveland in free agency. Now 35, he’ll look to recapture his 2021-24 form, when he posted a 3.18 ERA, a 3.58 FIP, and 81 saves. The Snakes are without a clear closer, and Sewald has as good a chance as any to win the job out of camp.
Marlins Sign John King for $1.5 Million
Despite a below-replacement-level showing in 2025, the funky lefty was able to secure a fully-guaranteed major league deal. King can be optioned as long as he’s under five years of service time (he’s 24 days shy of reaching that milestone), so he’s not necessarily going to be on the Opening Day roster despite the seven-figure commitment. He’ll compete for a role behind closer Pete Fairbanks and top setup men Calvin Faucher, Tyler Phillips, and Anthony Bender.
Angels Sign Brent Suter for $1.25 Million
Suter is probably the final piece of a rebuilt Angels bullpen that has added an array of new faces on one-year deals: Kirby Yates signed for $5 million, Drew Pomeranz $4 million, and Jordan Romano $2 million. The soft-tossing, fast-working Suter will join that trio along with Robert Stephenson as locks for five of the eight bullpen spots in a group that’s eagerly awaiting the flame-throwing Ben Joyce’s return from labrum surgery. Ryan Zeferjahn and the out-of-options Chase Silseth figure to factor in as well.
Braves Sign Jonah Heim for $1.25 Million
Heim will fill in for Sean Murphy as Drake Baldwin’s backup while Murphy is out until May recovering from hip surgery. While the Braves would surely love to catch lightning in a bottle and recapture Heim’s 2022-23 form, they’re in need of a competent backup more than anything. They won’t hesitate to DFA him upon Murphy’s return.
Trades
Red Sox Acquire Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio, Anthony Seigler, and 2026 Competitive Balance Round B draft pick from Brewers for Kyle Harrison, David Hamilton, and Shane Drohan
- Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
- Updated Red Sox Roster Projection
- Updated Brewers Roster Projection
- Updated Red Sox Roster Projection
- Updated Brewers Payroll Projection
Effect on the Red Sox
This can’t be how the Red Sox or their fans envisioned shoring up their infield mix at the start of the offseason. But that doesn’t mean that Durbin — who will start at third and/or second base after mostly playing the hot corner in Milwaukee — isn’t a good get at this stage of the offseason.
The diminutive Durbin (I know, I know, I’m one to talk — he still has three inches on me) finished third in NL Rookie of the Year balloting in his only season with the Brewers after being acquired from the Yankees in the Devin Williams trade. His appeal is that he’s pretty darn good at everything. He popped 11 homers while striking out under 10% of the time, and while he didn’t walk much, he got hit by 24 (!) pitches, equating to reaching base by free pass (BB or HBP) four more times than he went down on strikes. He was a run above average by FRV and five by DRS when playing third, and he stole 18 bases in 24 tries. All in all, there’s nothing flashy about him but also nothing he does badly, plus his acquisition allows Isiah Kiner-Falefa to move into the superutility role for which he’s better-suited. Durbin was up just late enough to miss out on a full year of service time, so he can be a Red Sox for as many as six seasons.
If the Red Sox need more third base coverage throughout the year, that’s where Seigler and Monasterio come in. Seigler was once a switch-hitting and sometimes-switch-throwing catcher who’s now primarily a third baseman, but he can play all over and got into his first big league action last year. He struggled in 73 plate appearances but tore up Triple-A, with a 143 wRC+ in 307 trips to the plate. As for Monasterio, he had his best showing with the big club last year (111 wRC+ in 135 plate appearances) and has experience at all four infield spots.
Effect on the Brewers
The most pressing question for the Brewers after making this trade is: Who the heck plays third base for them now? I can’t recall a team trading away an entire position from its depth chart in one move, but that’s exactly what Milwaukee did. It doesn’t sound as if the team is going to change up its Joey Ortiz–Brice Turang middle infield, either. So then who? The speedy Hamilton could well factor in at third despite scant experience at the position as a pro (just 1.1 innings there last year), and perhaps Jett Williams gets a tryout there. Tyler Black is still on the 40-man. But the most seamless fit is Isaac Paredes; the Brewers have expressed interest, though there’s nothing imminent at this point. Such a move would make Williams’ path to the majors at some point this year narrower, but it’s not as if Ortiz has a very steady hold on his starting job and Williams can play center, too.
Not to be overlooked in this trade is the Brewers’ acquisition of Harrison. His velocity has been up and down since debuting in the majors with the Giants in 2023, and so too has his performance and spot on the depth chart. He went from our no. 24 overall prospect upon his graduation in 2024 to being included in the Rafael Devers salary dump in 2025, but he’s still just 24 years old and the Brewers clearly see a path to helping him be more consistent if they’re trading six years of Durbin for him. He’s got a bit of an uphill climb for a rotation spot, but it’s not insurmountable if he shows out this spring, and the Brewers are never afraid to tap into their depth during the season. Drohan, who recently spoke with our David Laurila, could also contribute for the big club at some point in 2026, as he’s coming off a fabulous (if injury-limited) 2025 during which he struck out 34.5% of opponents in 54 innings. He’s further down the starting pitching depth chart than Harrison but could do good work as a multi-inning relief weapon à la DL Hall or Aaron Ashby.
Blue Jays Acquire Jesús Sánchez from Astros for Joey Loperfido
- Updated Blue Jays Roster Projection
- Updated Astros Roster Projection
- Updated Blue Jays Roster Projection
- Updated Astros Payroll Projection
Effect on the Blue Jays
The first day of spring training is a big day for learning about injuries, and the Blue Jays were no exception. The team has lost Bowden Francis to elbow surgery, Shane Bieber to forearm fatigue (he’ll be back a few weeks into the season, hopefully), and Anthony Santander to shoulder labrum surgery. Santander’s injury created an opening for a power-hitting outfielder in Toronto’s lineup, one that’s now filled by Sánchez.
Sánchez’s raw pop is pretty ridiculous (behold this 496-foot bomb at Coors), but it’s not something he’s been able to consistently get to in games; his career high in homers is just 18, and he hit just 14 last year. But while his wRC+ dipped to 93 last season, his strikeout rate was a career-best 22%, so it wasn’t all bad.
One thing Sánchez has never been able to do is hit lefties (33 wRC+ in 2025, 41 for his career), so he figures to be in a pretty rigid platoon with Davis Schneider in left field, keeping Addison Barger’s cannon arm in right. George Springer could play some outfield but will still mostly DH, and Daulton Varsho will be in center. That leaves Nathan Lukes and Myles Straw as bench outfielders, and the team may only be able to roster one of the two.
Effect on the Astros
Sánchez seemed like a non-tender candidate back in November, so it isn’t surprising that the Astros shaved his $6.8 million off the payroll. That 93 wRC+ he posted last season included a 71 mark after being acquired by Houston at the trade deadline, after all. In Loperfido, the team is bringing back a familiar face — he was originally an Astro and was traded to the Blue Jays for Yusei Kikuchi two trade deadlines ago — who comes with five years of control instead of Sánchez’s two. Loperfido’s salary will barely be above the league minimum this year, if he even makes the major league roster at all.
The team’s crowded infield has been well-documented, but the Astros also have decisions to make in the outfield even with Loperfido being a more flexible piece than Sánchez since he can be optioned to the minors. Only center fielder Jake Meyers definitely has a roster spot, though not necessarily a starting one. Loperfido will be fighting for time along with power hitter Zach Cole, sophomore Cam Smith, and top prospect Brice Matthews (an infielder by trade who will get some work in center this spring). Yordan Alvarez will DH almost exclusively but could still occasionally play left field, and the same goes for second baseman Jose Altuve.
Jon Becker manages RosterResource's team payroll pages and assists with all other aspects of RosterResource, too. Follow him at your own peril on Twitter at @jonbecker_ and on BlueSky at @jon-becker.com.