Matrix Reloaded: January 5, 2026
Welcome to 2026. Time marches on, and so too does the Offseason Matrices document. It has been pretty quiet since I updated you with a Matrix Reloaded last Monday, so much so that we pushed back our return to our usual Friday schedule, knowing that Tatsuya Imai and Kazuma Okamoto would at least sign over the weekend. Assuming the first full week of the New Year is busier, we’ll be back at it on Fridays for the remainder of the offseason.
Significant Signings
Blue Jays Sign Kazuma Okamoto for Four Years, $60 Million
Effect on the Blue Jays
Step one for the Jays: figure out where Okamoto will play. He’s got extensive experience at both infield corners but has also spent time in left field, though not since the 2024 season with Yomiuri. He’s obviously not going play much first base with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. locked up for 15 seasons, and barring a trade, the outfield looks well set with Anthony Santander, Daulton Varsho, Addison Barger, and Nathan Lukes; there’s also the possibility George Springer spends more time on the grass than he did last year.
The problem with Okamoto playing third is that he might not be that good over there; our prospect team has him down as a 40-grade first baseman, so it stands to reason that he’d be below average at the harder position to play. Perhaps Andrés Giménez’s excellent range at short can help paper over some of Okamoto’s deficiencies, or perhaps the Blue Jays will take the defensive hit if it means getting his bat in the lineup.
The other thing to monitor here is how, if at all, this affects the team’s reported pursuit of Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, and Cody Bellinger (all source information is on the Matrix). On the surface, the Jays don’t have “space” for another starting-caliber (starting-calibre?) bat, but a team that was just two outs from winning the World Series might decide not to care about making Santander an expensive bench player and add anyway.
Effect on Other Teams
In the run-up to Okamoto’s signing deadline, the Blue Jays actually weren’t among the most oft-mentioned teams. That distinction belongs to the Pirates, Angels, and Padres. Okamoto would have been more of a luxury for the Padres, so I don’t necessarily expect them to sign another hitter instead, but the same can’t be said for the Pirates and Angels. Those two teams have some of the worst third base projections in the league, with the Pirates ranking 25th in projected WAR at the hot corner and the Angels checking in at 29th.
Fortunately for those two clubs, there are still some intriguing options. Unfortunately for those two clubs, it remains to be seen if they’re willing to spend that kind of cash. Bregman is probably out of the question, but Eugenio Suárez could be in either team’s price range. Considerably cheaper options include Yoán Moncada, Willi Castro, Miguel Andujar, Luis Rengifo, and Ramón Urías.
Effect on Similar Players
Okamoto’s signing could push the infield market along at least a little bit — especially if the Jays are pivoting away from Bichette and Bregman, which we don’t know for sure — and Suárez could be the hitter to most directly benefit. His median contract prediction (on the Total Spending Projection tab) is three years at $63 million, and the longer he’s out there, the likelier he is to end up taking two years, or even just one. But a not-super-needy team signing Okamoto could energize Suárez’s market; if Okamoto had signed with the Pirates or Angels, the team that lost out might have been more comfortable waiting for the Suárez market to come to them. Now, someone might get desperate.
Astros Sign Tatsuya Imai for Three Years, $54 Million
Effect on the Astros
Imai is the highest-profile starter to be added by an Astros club that also signed Ryan Weiss from the KBO and traded for Mike Burrows in the three-teamer with Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. Those moves give the team a rotation that’s short on top-end talent behind Hunter Brown but long on options.
Despite Imai’s contract structure (it includes incentives for 2026 and escalators for the 2027 and 2028 options at just 80, 90, and 100 innings pitched), he figures to be the only lock to join Brown in the rotation, assuming health; the Astros aren’t paying $18 million a year for someone they’re going to stick in the bullpen in April. Beyond Brown and Imai, a smorgasbord of arms are competing for the final three spots, including [deep breath before listing a bunch of names]: Weiss, Burrows, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Nate Pearson, Spencer Arrighetti, AJ Blubaugh, Jason Alexander, Colton Gordon, and J.P. France. McCullers and Javier figure to have a leg up considering their veteran status and expensive contracts.
Effect on Other Teams
As far as we know publicly, the Cubs may well have been the runners-up to sign Imai. They’ve had a rotation opening all offseason, and while they hypothetically could just roll with Colin Rea or Javier Assad as their fifth starter, they’ve been shooting higher for the vacancy next to Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, and Shota Imanaga, with Justin Steele, who had elbow surgery in April, rejoining the club at some point this season.
So what’s next for them? Well, I’ll believe that they’re being truly aggressive in their pursuit of Framber Valdez or Ranger Suárez — the top two remaining free agent starters, both of whom will eclipse $100 million and/or sign for an average annual value higher than the Cubs have ever committed — when I see it. Enter Zac Gallen.
The Cubs have been linked to Gallen all offseason, most notably when Bob Nightengale reported that they were finalizing a deal with the former Diamondbacks righty before amending his post to say that the Cubs were merely “hopeful.” Gallen has been on the downswing the last two seasons. When he finished third in Cy Young balloting in 2023, it wouldn’t have been at all outlandish to forecast that he’d sign for $200 million or more once he hit free agency, but after posting a 4.83 ERA, 4.50 FIP, and 4.28 xERA (all worse than average) in his walk year, the Scott Boras client may have to settle for a contract structure similar to Imai’s.
Effect on Similar Players
And that’s where the Imai Effect might help Gallen. Imai and Michael King both signed three-year contracts allowing them to opt out after each season, and Gallen could be the third pitcher to sign such a deal. Like Gallen, Imai is a Boras client, and Boras could jockey for Gallen to sign a deal with a similar structure with the Cubs or another team.
I would anticipate Gallen signing for more than Imai (if he gets a three-year deal) considering his track record and durability — he’s thrown 180 innings in three of the last four seasons, and threw 148 in the fourth, a year in which he still made 28 starts — but less than King. Complicating matters for Gallen is that he’s attached to a qualifying offer, which may make teams hesitant to give him the chance to opt out after one year. Perhaps something in between King and Imai (three years and $63 million?) with an opt out after just the second year could get the job done.
Giants Sign Tyler Mahle for One Year, $10 Million
Effect on the Giants
The Giants’ rotation is ostensibly full, but not in an “I really don’t see how they could add another starting pitcher” way. It’s more an “if everyone enters spring training healthy, their rotation looks set” situation, with Mahle joining Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Adrian Houser, and Landen Roupp in the starting five.
But beyond Webb, who’s as steady and durable as they come, that fivesome is rife with pitfalls. Mahle himself made just 16 starts last year and only eight additional ones in the two prior seasons; he’s only topped 130 innings in a season once, during a very good 2021 with the Reds. Ray faded down the stretch after being named an All-Star in his first full season since 2022. Houser was great in the run prevention department last year, but wasn’t so great in the bat-missing department. And Roupp missed a chunk of 2025 due to injuries and has never thrown more than 107.2 innings in a pro season.
Maybe the stars will align for good output from the rotation, and the depth is decent with Kai-Wei Teng, Trevor McDonald, Carson Whisenhunt, Blade Tidwell, Carson Seymour, and Hayden Birdsong. But a bunch of maybes and decents shouldn’t dissuade a team looking to take a leap under first-year manager Tony Vitello from adding another rock solid starter, whether it’s Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, or Zac Gallen, or a non-QO-encumbered arm like Chris Bassitt.
Effect on Other Teams
The relief market has almost been picked clean, but the same can’t be said for starting pitchers, no matter which aisle you’re shopping in. Teams still in need of a starter or two have plenty of options lingering on the open market, and arms like Edward Cabrera and Kris Bubic have been mentioned as trade possibilities, too.
Effect on Similar Players
Mahle’s signing takes an affordable-to-everyone pitcher off the board, but with the whole starting pitching market moving slowly, there are still interesting arms who should be signable for around Mahle’s $10 million. Griffin Canning, Max Scherzer, Aaron Civale, Jose Quintana, and Tomoyuki Sugano will likely all sign for just one year in the low eight figures at most.
Rapid-Fire One-Year Deal (Only One This Time!)
Angels Sign Kirby Yates for $5 Million
Yates missed the Dodgers’ entire postseason run with a strained hamstring, prematurely ending his only season with the club. His 2025 was a major step back from his excellent 2024, anyway, though on the plus side, his walk rate was the lowest it’s been since his career-best 2019 with the Padres. This will be Yates’ second go-round in Anaheim after a one-game cameo in 2017, and he’ll compete with Robert Stephenson, Drew Pomeranz, Brock Burke, Ryan Zeferjahn, and Jordan Romano for saves in a bullpen that lacks a designated closer.
Trades
Marlins Acquire Esteury Ruiz from Marlins for Adriano Marrero
Effect on the Marlins
After trading Dane Myers to the Reds on Sunday, the Marlins had just one righty outfielder on the roster in superutilityman Javier Sanoja. Ruiz’s speed gives Miami a different type of bench player compared to Sanoja’s strong glovework; he stole 67 bases in 2023 to lead the majors. The big negative to Ruiz’s game is… well, everything else in his game. He hasn’t shown any of the other four tools at the big league level, so his usefulness as a backup outfielder remains to be seen if he still grades out as below-average on defense.
Effect on the Dodgers
The Dodgers had no real need for Ruiz, what with Alex Call set to reprise his role as the team’s fourth outfielder and the powerful Ryan Ward and defensive whiz Michael Siani also on the 40-man. Marrero just turned 18 in September and performed well in his first taste of pro ball in the DSL.
Jon Becker manages RosterResource's team payroll pages and assists with all other aspects of RosterResource, too. Follow him at your own peril on Twitter at @jonbecker_ and on BlueSky at @jon-becker.com.
Typo: Marlins acquire Ruiz from Marlins…
I assumed that was to get their name in a headline without all the effort of a “We Tried”.