Mets Keep Adding to Their Bullpen With Trade for Ryan Helsley

The National League East is shaping up into full-on sprint down the homestretch. Entering the day of the trade deadline, the Mets find themselves half a game ahead of the Phillies, but our playoff odds give Philadelphia a 51-49 edge at winning the division. Both teams have spent past two weeks reinforcing their bullpens, and on Wednesday night, just hours after the Phillies traded for a fireballing closer in Jhoan Duran, the Mets found their own slightly-less-fireballing closer in Ryan Helsley. The 31-year-old Helsley is a rental in his final year of arbitration, and for his services the Mets sent the Cardinals prospects Jesus Baez, Nate Dohm, and Frank Elissalt. After trading for Gregory Soto last week and Tyler Rogers earlier on Wednesday, the Mets have now completely reshaped the backend of their bullpen. Jon Heyman of the New York Post and Anthony DiComo of MLB.com were the first to report different parts of the deal.

Before we get into the trade, let’s take a moment to marvel at how quickly the Mets and Phillies have remade their relief corps. I should start by crediting the prolific Michael Baumann, who wrote up the Soto deal, the Rogers deal, and the Duran deal. I also wrote up the Phillies’ signing of David Robertson last week. Put all that together, and the Mets and Phillies have added the players who rank ninth, 12th, 37th, 54th, and 72nd in reliever WAR since the start of 2024. Impressively, Robertson comes in at 37th even though he hasn’t pitched in the big leagues yet this season, because his 1.9 WAR ranked ninth among all relievers last year. This measuring stick also underrates Rogers, who came in at 54th, because our version of WAR relies on FIP, and the submariner has made a habit of beating his through the mystical art of groundball induction; when using RA9-WAR, Rogers jumps all the way up to 10th. In other words, we’re talking about four of the most valuable relievers in all of baseball and Soto, who is also pretty good.

This is what it looks like when your goal is to win a World Series. The Phillies and Mets are paying heavy prices to give themselves the best possible chance of locking down games late in October. The Mets started out in a better position, as their bullpen currently ranks 11th in baseball with a 3.80 ERA and 4.02 xFIP, and eighth with a 3.70 FIP, and they’ve added one more reliever than Philadelphia. But the Phillies have now added the best reliever on the market (note: I wrote this sentence before the Mason Miller trade went down) and one of the best and most consistent setup men in the game. None of this guarantees that the division will come down to the wire or that these relief corps will actually shut down the opposition in October, but it’s awfully fun to watch them gearing up for a championship run.

Now to the deal! As Anthony Franco noted for MLB Trade Rumors, Helsley has $2.65 million remaining on his $8.2 million salary. Because the Mets are in luxury tax territory, they’ll actually pay something like $5.6 million in total for him over the next two months.

With Edwin Díaz ensconced in the closer role, Helsley and Rogers should slot in as shutdown setup men. After making his debut in 2019, Helsley really took off in 2022, running a 1.25 ERA and 2.34 FIP over 54 appearances and taking over the St. Louis closer role that July. Helsley led baseball with 49 saves last year, and that total represented more than half of the Cardinals’ wins. Though still excellent, it wouldn’t be unfair to say that he has taken a step back this season. He’s currently running a 3.00 ERA, though FIP, xERA, and xFIP all see him as deserving something closer to 3.50. This is a far cry from the combined 1.83 ERA, 2.35 FIP, and 3.04 xFIP he put up over the three previous seasons.

As for why this is happening, Helsley’s strikeout rate has fallen in each of the last three seasons, from a massive 39% in 2022 to a merely good 26% this season. After running absurdly low home run rates on his fly balls for the past two seasons, Helsley is up to a 2.5% home run rate. Because he’s a reliever, we’re only talking about four home runs this season. That could just be randomness evening out, but his hard-hit and barrel rates have also increased. Batters are having less trouble elevating and celebrating than they used to against him. That 2.5% home run rate is the same as his mark in 2022. The difference is that because he was striking out so many batters back then, a few home runs didn’t matter all that much. Dingers were all hitters were going to get, and I mean that literally. In 2022, Helsley allowed nine earned runs. All nine of those runs scored on homers.

Home runs are always going to be a risk for a pitcher who depends on high four-seamers. When players aren’t swinging under them, they’re elevating them. Helsley is still averaging 99.3 mph on his fastball this season, and stuff models are still swooning over the slider that he throws nearly half the time and the curveball he throws 5% of the time. The issue is location. He has an extreme overhand delivery, averaging an arm angle of 63 degrees. That should make for a really fun contrast when Rogers pitches the seventh and Helsley pitches the eighth. It also means that Helsley’s four-seamer is almost pure rise, averaging 17.6 inches of induced vertical break and just 2.3 inches of arm-side break. A pitch like that plays best at or above the top of the zone, but he has struggled to keep the ball up there this season.

As a result, Statcast’s run values have the pitch going from being worth 0.7 runs per 100 pitches in 2024 to worth -2.0 runs this season. Its whiff rate has fallen, its hard-hit rate has risen, and its wOBA has climbed from .325 to .439.

This is still a dangerous pitch, and if Helsley can locate it better and pair it with his unhittable gyro slider, he instantly returns to being one of the best relievers in the game. Maybe the Mets think they can help him find his command or that it will come back in time anyway. Maybe they’ll just tell him to keep throwing hundos over the heart of the plate and trust in his stuff. No batter is dying to see a 100-mph heater, even if it comes in a couple inches lower than the pitcher hoped. If all Helsley does it keep pitching to a 3.00 ERA, he’ll still be very useful over the next couple of months.

That brings us to the prospects going back to the Cardinals. Baez is the main attraction here, and he happened to be on base when the trade went down, which meant that he learned the news when a pinch-runner came to take his place. Eric Longenhagen just wrote up the Mets top prospects a month ago, at which time Baez ranked 16th in the system with a future value of 40+. It’s at least worth noting that Baseball America had him ranked all the way up at sixth in the organization, though he was at least somewhat blocked in an organization with young infielders like Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuña, Brett Baty, and Ronny Mauricio, along with two other infielders who came in ahead of him on our prospect rankings — Jacob Reimer and Elian Peña — and two 2024 draft picks: Mitch Voit and A.J. Ewing. Eric updated his blurb about Baez in light of the deal, so here it is in its entirety:

A $275,000 signee from 2022, Baez slashed .262/.338/.444 at St. Lucie last year and was given the quick hook up to Brooklyn after just a few games back there to start 2025. As of his trade to St. Louis for Ryan Helsely, he had a .740 OPS as a Cyclone, and is on his third consecutive season of a K% in the 15-17% range. This is a sensational hip-and-shoulder athlete who wows you with his ability to throw across his body, as well as his ability to rotate hard through contact. It’s a special, if specific, characteristic that creates some highlight reel plays on both sides of the ball, but doesn’t make Baez a great player or prospect on its own.

Let’s start with defense, where Baez continues to mostly play shortstop. He has the pure arm strength and actions to play short but nowhere near the requisite range, and his first step is slow enough that at times he looks lacking at third base, too. There is a subset of plays where Baez is forced to throw from a low arm slot that he appears most comfortable making, but he isn’t as consistent when he has to get on top of the baseball to throw long distance. This might make his best long-term position second base, where a lot of throws are made back across your body.

On offense, Baez has all-fields doubles power right now thanks to his lubricated hips, and he’s posting roughly average contact and power metrics under the hood. He has pull power even when his feet are early because he’s able to keep his hands back and rotate well through contact. The shaky Jenga block in Baez’s profile is his plate discipline, which gives his profile a Maikel Franco flavor that I can’t quite get out of my mouth. He’s been more patient in early counts this year than in seasons past, but he still expands too much with two strikes. Baez cuts his leg kick with two strikes to be in a better position to spoil tough pitches and grind out long at-bats, but this limits his pop; he had a paltry .490 OPS with two strikes at the time of the trade. This is a talented player who has performed like a future average everyday player on the surface, but who has some issues (defensive fit, strike zone judgment) that force one to round him down into a second division or bat-first utility FV tier.

Dohm and Elissalt are right-handed pitching prospects drafted out of college in 2024 who came in toward the end of the Mets list with future values of 35+. The Mets drafted the 23-year-old Dohm out of Mississippi State in the third round in 2024, and he has put up good results so far as a professional. He has looked solid this season, striking out nearly 30% of the batters he faced in seven games at Low-A and 11 games at High-A. He has a combined 2.87 ERA and 3.25 FIP over nearly 63 innings. Here’s what Eric wrote about him last month:

Dohm transferred from Ball State to Mississippi State, moved from the bullpen to the rotation, and had a hot start to his 2024 season before he was sidelined with an elbow injury. His mid-90s fastball has uphill angle and ride that helps it miss bats at the belt, and Dohm commands his slider (which isn’t especially nasty) to the bottom of the zone. He’s already blown through his career innings high in 2025 and is more of a dev project than the typical SEC arm. He projects as a fastball-heavy reliever.

The Mets took Elissalt in the 19th round of the 2024 draft out of Division-II Nova Southeastern. He was just promoted from Low-A to High-A, and he has a combined 3.04 ERA and 3.46 xFIP over 20 appearances and 56 1/3 innings. So far he’s also striking out right around 29% of the batters he faces. Elissalt can now touch 98, but Matt Eddy and Geoff Pontes of Baseball America have noted that he struggles with both command and maintaining consistent pitch shapes. Here’s what Eric wrote about him last month:

Elissalt went to high school in Miami but somehow ended up in Philly at LaSalle for his freshman season of college ball. It was his only one, as he would then transfer to Florida Southwestern and then Nova Southeastern before he was drafted. Elissalt has already experienced a four-tick bump to his fastball and an eight-tick bump to his primary breaking ball. He’s now averaging 95 mph and releasing from a low point that creates flat angle on a fastball with mediocre movement. Elissalt’s college curveball was scrapped in favor of a harder slider with plus length and bite. It’s the mix of a middle reliever if Elissalt can command his fastball to the location where it thrives.

In all, this is exactly the kind of deal we expect to see at the deadline. The Cardinals aren’t going anywhere with or without Helsley. He’s a pure rental who now has the chance to serve as a crucial piece in a playoff run. The Mets have built up their farm system to the point where they have enough players who may one day end up as good everyday infielders that they can afford to lose one. Dohm and Elissalt have a lot of developing to do for 23-year-old college arms, and they’re likely to get more chances as the Cardinals rebuild than they would have for a Mets team that is intent on building a dynasty.