Mike Podhorzer RotoGraphs Chat — 7/18/13

Mike Podhorzer: I’m here, I’m here! It’s my first RotoGraphs chat so treat me well. I’ll start answering questions at noon and go until 1, so start asking away!

Mike Podhorzer: Okay, I can’t wait any longer, let’s do this!

Comment From bdhudson
Hey Mike, thanks for hanging out. Who do you think are the most over and undervalued fantasy players? Pitcher, hitter, whatever

Mike Podhorzer: I’m going to give you general types, rather than specific names- Undervalued hitters are guys who do a little of everything, like Norichika Aoki. Pitchers, especially in the minors, are ground ballers who don’t have great strikeout rates

Mike Podhorzer: Overrated in fantasy is definitely power hitting first basemen. The top guys are routinely overvalued in my auction. Pitching? Guys whose ERAs are well below their SIERA marks the previous year?

Comment From Oscar
Thinking about proposing my Fielder for Holliday and Minor. I have a big lead in a H2H league so I am looking ahead to the playoffs where ATL has one of the best pitching schedules and STL has one of the easiest hitting schedules. ATL also has one of the best pitching schedules ROS. I have Hosmer and Rizzo clogging up my util positons so this trade would give me a little more flexibiltiy too. Don’t sugar coat it … would I be stupid to propose this trade?

Mike Podhorzer: not a huge fan of Minor, but in a vacuum and just comparing value, I think it’s fair. I like Holliday more than most. And Rizzo is going to kill it in the 2nd half!

Comment From Jesse
Why only 1? I miss Eno already!

Mike Podhorzer: You will forget Eno ever did this chat after I Wally Pipp him by chat’s end!

Comment From Alex
What’s your favorite beer?

Mike Podhorzer: Ummm, I don’t drink beer! Crazy right?

Comment From Pat D
I can trade Jeff Locke for Charlie Morton. Should i pull the trigger?

Mike Podhorzer: I’d prefer to trade you as the host of the Roundtable

Comment From bdhudson
How did you get into this whole writing biz?

Mike Podhorzer: It started when I had been reading a blog called The Fantasy Baseball Generals something like 5-6 years ago. He made a call for writers and I responded. The blog’s following grew and it was all rainbows from there.

Comment From Pat D
Speed dating or fantasy baseball?

Mike Podhorzer: The classic conundrum. How about talking fantasy baseball with your speed dating date?

Comment From Pat D
How bad are you going to feel when you collapse in Tout?

Mike Podhorzer: Neeeeeeeeeever

Comment From Pat D
Charlie Morton…..the best? or the GREATEST?

Mike Podhorzer: Stop clogging up my feed! The BESTEST.

Comment From John
Trade Machado and Wheeler for Darvish? I have Miggy at 3rd

Mike Podhorzer: Without more context, yes. Though Darvish’s injury is obviously a concern.

Comment From Kris
What SP should I target if dealing Pedroia? Have Cano at 2B as well.

Mike Podhorzer: A top tier one. He’s a $20+ player. Might as well shoot for the stars initially – why not go for a potentially discounted Verlander?

Comment From Lane Willis
Which Yankees prospect has a better shot to making the majors, Jairo Heredia or Cale Coshow,

Mike Podhorzer: I’m not a prospect guy but damn, Cale Coshow is an awesome name.

Comment From mike
I have three third basemen, need to cut one… Prado, Freese or Chris Johnson.

Mike Podhorzer: Johnson

Comment From hooha
I traded Starling Marte to bolster my pitching, but now have logan morrison starting in my last OF slot. What do you see Morrison doing in the 2nd half?

Mike Podhorzer: Probably getting injured. Ha. He’s always had BABIP problems, but that appears to be more bad luck. He’s a bit of a sleeper, but still not much better than replacement level in a 12-team mixed league

Comment From Alex
Do you think Allen Craig will start 6 more games in LF this year? His value will increase greatly for me if he retains that eligibility.

Mike Podhorzer: Probably, though might be cutting it close. Between Holliday and Beltran, I’d think there will be enough OF opportunities for Craig

Comment From austin
My team is loaded with first basemen right now (Goldy, Prince, and Votto) but my only 2B is Altuve. Another player in my league is willing to deal Kipnis if I include a first basemen. Should I sell high on Goldschmidt for Kipnis and, say, Dom Brown? Or should I just stick with Altuve? I’ve got a 12.5 game lead on the rest of the league right now

Mike Podhorzer: It would be silly to upgrade Altuve and then bench him as he’s clearly a starting worthy hitter. As long as you could play all those first baseman, I don’t see a problem.

Comment From Tom
Thanks for chatting, Mike! Who would you prefer among Rickie Weeks, Aaron Hill, Jose Altuve and Nick Franklin ROS in a BA league? Is Walker worth stashing?

Mike Podhorzer: Hill, easily. Then Altuve, Weeks, Franklin. Ehhh, Walker is decent, but if it’s a shallow league and someone else is available, wouldn’t criticize you if you dropped him.

Comment From Reverend Redd
In a 14 team (34 roster) keeper league, how much value should I be placing on Zach Wheeler? Xander Bogey? Thanks for the chat!!

Mike Podhorzer: Pitching prospects are a dime a dozen. Wheeler is in a good situation in the NL and a pitcher’s park and obviously has intriguing stuff. I’d value the shortstop with power and some speed higher in Bogaerts

Comment From Mitch
What is your area of expertise.. HS? College? Minors?

Mike Podhorzer: I am an expert in all fields of life 🙂

Comment From Wild Bill
What do you expect from the following SPs returning from injury in the second half: Beachy, Pineda, and Carpenter.

Mike Podhorzer: Surprisingly, Carpenter appears to be the most likely to earn positive value for fantasy owners. I would place Beachy second and would be shocked if Pineda was worth anything

Comment From Alex
What is the most you would give up for Buxton in a dynasty league? Top __ SP pitcher? Top __ OF?

Mike Podhorzer: Not a big fan of trading for prospects, I always want to play for this year. Of course, if you have no chance this year, then that changes things. But remember there is always another top prospect people are excited about.

Comment From hooha
Odds Blake Parker takes over the closer spot in Chicago after the trading deadline?

Mike Podhorzer: He might get a shot because the Cubs’ alternatives are terrible, but I don’t expect him to succeed. Funny, they got rid of Marmol and now their replacement options are a bunch of Marmols – good strikeout guys with bad control. This also includes Pedro Strop. Arrieta is my real darkhorse, but seems like he’s been starting in the minors.

Comment From Kevin
Any reason to be optimistic about Josh Reddick returning to form?

Mike Podhorzer: You just never know with wrist injuries. I wouldn’t bother in a shallow mixed league, but if he’s super cheap, I guess he’s worth the gamble in an AL-Only

Comment From dude
ENOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO…oh wait….POOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD!!!!!!!!!!

Mike Podhorzer: That excitement truly comes through the screen and totally brightens up my afternoon. Thanks dude!

Comment From zack
Better ros: Burnett or liriano?

Mike Podhorzer: Ahhh, good comparison. I’ll give Liriano the slight edge just due to the fact I expect his strikeout rate to be more sustainable and higher RoS

Comment From austin
my starting pitchers are kershaw, gio, sale, darvish, fernandez, harvey, teheran, ryu, and hellickson. Basically, I’m in good shape. I know I’ll lose fernandez at 170ish IP, but should I still try and sell high on sale? First half/second half splits were ugly for him last year

Mike Podhorzer: Off the top of my head, it was just a matter of Sale’s good first half luck reversing in the second half, rather than a skills decline. Trading him away is fine, but I wouldn’t consider it a sell high. He should remain a top AL starter.

Comment From Jason
Roto Strategy question. When are percentage leads safe? Example, .296 average and closest competition is at .276 with a similar OBP lead. Can I trade away a high average guy for some needs and not worry? Assuming I don’t roster Uggla and Uptons.

Mike Podhorzer: Good question and wow, I thought my avg lead was relatively safe at like .280 to .272! Umm yeah, time to trade for Dunn, Reynolds and Weeks!

Comment From Wild Bill
What will happen to Craig Gentry given the emergence of Leonys Martin in Arlington? Seems he could handle CF duties for a number of other clubs and could be part of a trade package for the Rangers.

Mike Podhorzer: Gentry is good defensively, but he can’t hit. He’s a reserve OFer.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Tell us how your beer tastes differ from that of Mr. Sarris please

Mike Podhorzer: Well, that’s easy. I don’t drink beer, while he obviously enjoys it to a great degree! I don’t totally hate it, I just prefer other drinks.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Jeff Zimmerman was very pessimistic in his MASH report that went in depth on Yu Darvish before the ASB…..do you share the sentiment that he is destined to get hurt again this season?

Mike Podhorzer: Well the word “again” presumes he’ll be back shortly and then get hurt several weeks later. I’m not so sure he’ll be back so soon to begin with.

Comment From austin
I have Hanley and Segura. Should I go ahead and sell high on Segura or hold on to him in case Hanley goes down again? And what is a reasonable return for Segura?

Mike Podhorzer: Assuming it’s not a keeper, then sure, trade away Segura. But I don’t think you’ll get anywhere near the return that you could have maybe a month ago. Not knowing if you want a pitcher or hitter, I’d say a Shields, Bumgarner, Sale type is fair. For hitters, really depends on what position you want, but I’m valuing Segura as a high teens value in 12 team mixed leagues.

Comment From Rick Reilly Sucks
Who will be the more productive SS Franklin or miller Dave seems to think Franklin is too small. BTW Eno I had the Elysian Peppercorn Saison on tap last night that stuff is awesome

Mike Podhorzer: This is Mike, but I’m sure Eno would be very happy to hear that! Hmm, I think I like Miller slightly better as they are very similar but Miller’s power looks to be a bit better at the moment.

Comment From Guest
How would you rate Jordan Zimmermann? Top 5 if K’s don’t matter that much and you count CG?

Mike Podhorzer: Not a big fan of his. Hard for me to get past that huge SIERA/ERA disconnect. A .253 BABIP won’t last. I’d rather have at least 10-15 pitchers.

Comment From e
Do you think Bogaerts gets at least 5 games at 3B for the Red Sox by the end of this season? I’d love to be able to put him at 3B next year even if he ends up playing SS, as I already have Profar and Segura in my dynasty league.

Mike Podhorzer: I don’t think he has played a game at 3B this year. So I’d say no. If I’m wrong, then maybe.

Comment From Grohman
I received DPrice, SMarte, and BPosey for Anibal Sanchez, CarGomez, CSantana, and Pujols. Win?

Mike Podhorzer: Man big trades with all these stars are so hard to evaluate. I think I’d slightly prefer the Pujols side, but would need more context.

Comment From JP
Just before the allstar break I traded Greg Holland and Steve Cishek for Ryan Braun… good move right? Who could I target on the waivers as guys likely to gain the closer role?

Mike Podhorzer: Ummm seriously?! That’s highway robbery. Betancourt could be traded, making Brothers closer again. Street, making either Thayer or Gregerson. K-Rod, making Henderson closer and of course Gregg, but that bullpen should be avoided.

Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
In roto, is there a point at which the rate stats are more or less locked in?

Mike Podhorzer: No, but if you have a large lead, it may be safe. Depends on the size of the gap.

Comment From Alex
When will the industry stop calling Giancarlo Stanton GEE-AN-CAR-LOW and pronouncne it right JOHN-CAR-LOW

Mike Podhorzer: Or Jean, like Jean-Claude Van Dam!

Comment From JP
Which one of these guys would you try to move? 5 outfielders and only 4 spots….. Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Ryan Braun, Mike Trout, Jayson Werth

Mike Podhorzer: Wow. Easily Beltran just given his performance to date and potential for a collapse in the 2nd half. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2nd-half-hitter-bust-candidates/

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
% chance the Twins actually deal Perkins and % chance he becomes a setup guy if that happens?

Mike Podhorzer: I own Perkins in too many leagues to want to think about this. Hard to speculate and depends on the team he goes to as to whether he closes or not.

Comment From Matt
Chris Sale for Cole Hamels/Billy Butler, worth the gamble on the 2 in a vacuum?

Mike Podhorzer: Depends on who Butler replaces, but I’d venture yes. I don’t see why Hamels couldn’t match Sale in value the rest of the way.

Comment From atoms
Is Matt Moore finally starting to figure out his command issues, or is this just random fluctuation?

Mike Podhorzer: Random fluctuation likely

Comment From Rick Reilly Sucks
Who has the better 2nd half Hamels or Iwakuma?

Mike Podhorzer: Hamels

Comment From Alex
More likely to figure it out, Ike or Middlebrooks?

Mike Podhorzer: Ike

Comment From e
Maikel Franco has looked really good this year. I know he doesn’t have the power of Sano, but considering his plate discipline and contact rate advantage, could he hit a similar number of HR in actual MLB play?

Mike Podhorzer: Not a prospect guy, so all I could do is check out his stats. That contact rate is ridiculous. It’s rare to find that combination of power and contact ability, but it’s too small a sample and only Double-A to get too excited yet.

Comment From Guest
hey mike – what’s in store for b.j. upton/matt kemp/giancarlo stanton/starlin castro

Mike Podhorzer: More crying and tissues? I thought Upton had a decent chance to rebound if he hadn’t gotten injured. Kemp has had one injury after another but his average distance has improved throughout the season. Stanton should be fine, but of course his run and RBI totals in that pathetic offense won’t be great. Starlin’s BABIP/AVG will rebound, but if he doesn’t start attempting more steals, he won’t be worth a whole lot.

Comment From hooha
You don’t drink beer?!?! Then, uhhmm, what do you do?

Mike Podhorzer: Ha, I was waiting for that kind of response. I’m a vodka drink guy. Or maybe rum.

Comment From Mike in ATL
Ivan Nova putting some nice starts together, are you intrigued?

Mike Podhorzer: I absolutely am! Ground balls and strikeouts, me likey

Comment From Guest
all of whom are on my team – yea i’ve had a rough first half

Mike Podhorzer: Well at least you know things can’t get any worse!

Comment From jay
Is this your only job? Writing fantasy baseball that is.

Mike Podhorzer: Umm kinda….I’m technically unemployed right now. Anyone want to hire me?

Comment From Matt Moore
Who is the sell highiest guy, right now?

Mike Podhorzer: Jeff Locke or Travis Wood

Comment From Mike
Segura and Stanton enough in return for Cano?

Mike Podhorzer: Yes, but who replaces Cano and who Segura and Stanton replace is an important consideration

Comment From Jesse
Thoughts on Aoki going forward in an OBP league? Is Freese or CarlCrawford a better option ?

Mike Podhorzer: Aoki needs to stop getting caught stealing! Crawford is better if I knew he’d play every day with that crowded OF. Freese is not.

Comment From juan pierres mustache
why don’t you drink beer, you biased prick (sorry bout that, force of habit)

Mike Podhorzer: I’ve tried some beers that were decent, but just never developed the taste for it. Most people like the taste of beer, the best I could find is a beer I don’t dislike and is only somewhat drinkable. Sad 🙁

Comment From dude
Did Eno tell you about the regulars? And about the blood-feuds? And about the random pics, comments, and lunacy?

Mike Podhorzer: I stepped into the chat room of death completely blind. Where are the random pics?! Bring ’em on!

Comment From acc
Do you like Ishikawa to rebound or continue to fall??

Mike Podhorzer: Uhhh, you mean Iwakuma? Just his luck evening out in recent outings. Still a solid pitcher – mid-3.00 ERA RoS

Comment From mr. anonymous
glad you’re doing a chat.. really enjoy your rotograph articles. really good stuff. i usually learn something on projecting!

Mike Podhorzer: Thanks, appreciate it!

Comment From Lily
I am stashing BJ for a rebound any chance of this ???

Mike Podhorzer: Now he’s on the DL, so he’s getting to the point of this being a completely lost season. Might as well hold on if you have a DL spot, but if you’re using a bench spot for him, not as confident.

Comment From person
Didn’t the All Star Break used to be only three days? Where’s my baseball dammit?!?

Mike Podhorzer: I know, the nerve of MLB to give the players an extra day of vacation!

Comment From Chaz
Is Heyward going to produce second half or is it time to give up…lost season.

Mike Podhorzer: Still holding out hope for a big rebound

Comment From Kate Upton
Can we get some insight into the 2nd half for Justin Upton?

Mike Podhorzer: He’s suffered from simple timing. All his production came early in the season and so it’s a matter of perception. If you check his HR/FB rate, it’s near a career high. Striking out more often, but you should expect similar production as you did in the preseason. 25-30 HR pace

Comment From Dustin
Have Machado, Wil Myers, Marte, and J Fernandez all for keepers $6-$8 next year, but can only keep 3 in that league. Currently second place. What kind of deal would you try to make with a team out of contention using one of those 4 guys?

Mike Podhorzer: Macahdo prob is the best sell high guy given his performance to date and that I think it’s less sustainable than Marte. So I’d look to trade him first. Ask for the farm first and then gradually ask for less

Comment From mr. anonymous
jeff zimmerman uses projections for his consensus rankings. where does he get the numbers for players don’t have projections listed on the site? puig is a good example. he has no zips projection and his streamer is incomplete, but jz has him ranked #6. how did he come up with that?

Mike Podhorzer: I’m really not sure, tweet at him and ask or something

Comment From bdhudson
Guy whose performance this year so far will lead to his extreme overvaluing on draft day next year?

Mike Podhorzer: There are always going to be lucky pitchers who fit into this, but Domonic Brown, depending on how he finishes, is a hitter

Comment From Jesse
Will Putz close again in Arz? should i keep him on my roster or grab Ziegler? or just keep my ear to t he ground for the 1st closer changer via trade?

Mike Podhorzer: There’s no way Ziegler ends the season as the closer. I bet they trade for a proven guy

Comment From John
Thanks for answering before! Another trade question. Trade Harvey for McCutchen? I’m already way ahead in most pitching categories

Mike Podhorzer: Absolutely!

Comment From mr. anonymous
after a dl stint last year dan haren was a serviceable pitcher the remainder of the year. his results have been good in his first two games back after the dl this year. think he can reproduce last years comeback?

Mike Podhorzer: You picked the right man to ask about Haren! Unfortunately, velocity didn’t improve after returning from DL, but man has he had some horrible luck. I picked him back up in the leagues I dropped him in so I still have hope

Comment From Mike
Hey Mike, Yes or No?

Mike Podhorzer: Yes

Comment From Kevin
Similar to the Pedroia question. If Verlander is a good starting point for Pedroia, what would be a good starting point for Kinsler?

Mike Podhorzer: I valued Kinsler pretty closely to Pedroia, but with his injury, he won’t fetch as much, so he’s prob not the best guy to try trading away as you simply won’t get the value.

Comment From person
What sort of pitcher would you expect as fair trade value for Pujols? Considering trading him, if I can get value, and going with a Craig/LoMo platoon at 1B

Mike Podhorzer: Oy, beats me what to expect from Pujols. Gotta assume better, right? I just don’t see how trading him for a pitcher is going to be worthwhile.

Comment From atoms
I need runs and OBP and I have good pitching already in a 12-team 5×5 with OBP. I’m trying to acquire Matt Carpenter and Alex Gordon (for Dom Brown and Matt Moore), but if that doesn’t materialize, who else should I target?

Mike Podhorzer: Choo is an OBP monster, though I’m sure it would take a lot to acquire him. OBP is rather stable, so would be hard to really buy low, unless you focused on guys with low BABIPs, but who walk a lot with the assumption his OBP rises with a BABIP rise

Comment From sea salt
Mike, I trust your judgment alone on this site, so please answer – How many HR’s for Raul in the second half? I say 14.

Mike Podhorzer: He has already surprised us all, but I think 14 is way too high for RoS. I’ll say 10

Comment From Bartrollo
Do you think Dan Haren can provide good fantasy value in the second half?

Mike Podhorzer: The 2nd Haren question! You guys know me too well. I hope so, picked him back up in several leagues. His luck has to get better.

Comment From Ricky
I know from the Sleeper and the Bust (which I highly recommed!) that you love Siera. Rick Porcello has a 3.15 Sierra and a 4.80 era and zips/steamer don’t like him much ROS. Is this all because of the terrible defense or are do you predict he will be a top 40 pitcher like his Siera says?

Mike Podhorzer: He has always had trouble with men on base and his skills actually do decline. That’s something SIERA doesn’t account for. So I don’t think his SIERA is attainable, but his skills have improved dramatically this season and have been better since April. I expect a sub-4.00 ERA, just not 3.15 good

Comment From Trevor
Hey Mike. Any general thoughts on how to know if you’re out of it in an ottoneu league? I’m in third, but perpetually about 200 points behind second and 800 behind first. I made upgrades from prospects, but I’m wondering if it’s too little, too late.

Mike Podhorzer: This is my first year in an Ottoneu league and it’s 5×5, so I have no idea how many points players get. That said, I’d guess 200 you can make up, but 800 sounds impossible

Comment From Rick Reilly Sucks
any 2nd saves sleepers?

Mike Podhorzer: Jim Henderson, Rex Brothers, Dale Thayer or Luke Gregerson

Comment From Matt Moore
How close would you have to be in the standings to ‘go for it’ in a 15 team keeper league, and risk missing out on players for next year. Middle of the pack or higher? 5th place or higher?

Mike Podhorzer: Better question would be how many points back of the money. At this stage, 20 points you can make up, as long as you aren’t too far back in the various categories.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Mike is an expert in podcast hosting badassery

Mike Podhorzer: “Podcast hosting badass”- will be my new business card title!

Comment From Rick Reilly Sucks
Any concern with Wright’s foot injury?

Mike Podhorzer: He should be fine.

Comment From Rocket Roger
what do you expect to see from Cespedes in the 2nd half?

Mike Podhorzer: Increased strikeout rate and lots of pop-ups means he’s not going to hit for last year’s average. But, his BABIP should increase, as should his HR/FB rate. Solid buy low if you could pull it off

Mike Podhorzer: Daaaamn, so much for trying to get to every question. It’s already 1:00 and the oldest question right now is from 12:17…AHHH! Will try to get to a couple of more. If I don’t get to yours, follow me on Twitter @mikepodhorzer and ask me anything

Comment From BJP
Who is the best FBB player you know ? What makes him stand out?

Mike Podhorzer: Haven’t been in many leagues with him, but Derek Carty is someone who I have always agreed with in the past and has also done a great job performing research to advance what we know

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
do I sell Yoenis Cespedes in a 5×5 keeper if someone thinks he’ll hit .280+ w/ the speed he showed last season going forward?

Mike Podhorzer: I wouldn’t sell him now at his low point

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
are the complete anti-Eno by eschewing beer and liking/consuming coffee/caffeine?

Mike Podhorzer: I don’t like coffee either! My hair is also less curly and less large than Eno’s.

Comment From Maxamuz
I WILL NOT BE IGNORED MIKE.

Mike Podhorzer: Gosh I am way behind

Comment From Maxamuz

No one likes the cookie monster.

Mike Podhorzer: Had to add our first picture to liven up the chat. I like her

Comment From Maxamuz

Nice shirt you non beer drinking fool.

Mike Podhorzer: Who is that sexy man?

Comment From Rick Reilly Sucks
Pod you are way faster than Jeff S talk about slow

Mike Podhorzer: And yet, I’m like 50 mins behind

Comment From Legend of Zoilo
Mike Pod-hoster

Mike Podhorzer: I like

Comment From the only beast mode
how much money would one need if one desired ur fantasy attention for 24 hours?

Mike Podhorzer: A bazillion dollars

Comment From Maxamuz
I’m not kidding Mike, you may have finally saw me and realized my greatness but its to late. You are my enemy.

Mike Podhorzer: Next time it will be an all Maxamuz chat, I promise

Mike Podhorzer: Okay, I’m officially ending this thing. We’ll be recording The Sleeper and the Bust in a couple hours, so make sure you listen to Zach Sanders and I. Follow me on Twitter and ask me anything I didn’t get to today @mikepodhorzer. Thanks for stopping by and hopefully I’ll get a chance to do this again!