National Soft-Tosser Association
Radar guns are not fans of the Washington Nationals’ makeshift pitching rotation. As a unit, they have an average velocity of 87.9 MPH. Big league lineups know that when they are facing Washington, it’s soft-tosser after soft-tosser after soft-tosser. While there is much more to pitching then just rearing back and throwing fastballs in the upper-nineties, there is a correlation between velocity and striking batters out. So it shouldn’t come as a shock to see the Nationals’ staff sitting at a dangerously low strikeout rate of just 4.67 K/9. When you’re missing this few bats, you’re relying on your defense to make a lot of outs. And for the Nationals, that can be a bit of adventure at times when you’re fielding Adam Dunn at any position.
The Head Master of the slow fastball is Livan Hernandez, whose heater comes in at a breakneck speed of 84.1 MPH. More than a handful of pitchers throw change-ups faster than that, but it’s Livan’s calling card. Livan has a magical ERA of 1.04 right now despite a K/BB ratio of 2.91:2.91. His 5.18 xFIP tells us the cold, hard truth of about Livan, as if we didn’t know it already.
Lefty Scott Olsen is the only one out of the bunch with an above-average strikeout rate at 8.36 K/9. His slider has been a put away pitch for him so far in the season, and he has a decent change-up to keep opposite handed batters off-balance. While he’s off to a great start, we’re still talking about Scott Olsen, and a pitcher that’s not far removed from labrum surgery, so I’d expect some regression.
Craig Stammen throws the ball harder than any of his other rotation mates, with an average fastball velocity of 90.4. Whoa, there. He does however have some good control working in his favor. He’s walking only 1.13 batters per nine, and while that low rate won’t stay that good, he has had a good walk rates throughout his minor league career.
John Lannan had an ERA of 3.88 last year despite a K/9 rate of …3.88. That just doesn’t even seem possible, unless we’re talking about a different generation of pitchers. Lannan is predictably getting rocked by batters so far this season (45 hits in 32.2 innings). He’s also hurting himself by walking 4.96 batters per nine.
Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler, Chien-Ming Wang are all expected to come off the disabled list sometime this year for the Nationals. I also heard this rumor about a guy they have in the minors named Stephen Strasburg who throws the ball really, really hard and is supposed to be really, really good. He should be up when his general manager is done manipulating the service time rules. Uh, I mean when he decides that he’s major league ready. So there is a reason to believe that radar guns will soon be lit up in our nation’s capital.
Erik Manning is the founder of Future Redbirds and covers the Cardinals for Heater Magazine. You can get more of his analysis and rantings in bite-sized bits by following him on twitter.
Huh? What’s your definition of a soft tosser? Wang’s fastball (at least when healthy) throws the ball at 94-95 MPH.
Did you read this article?
Yes? I just don’t understand why he didn’t qualify the pitchers who are returning from the DL. Nor do I understand why he talks about correlation between MPH and K/9 at the beginning, only to never talk about it again when analyzing pitchers other than Stammen and Livan.
The others sit in the 88-89 range, didn’t think it was worth mentioning each one. The point is, they don’t throw very hard, they don’t miss many bats and they’re not very good. But the rotation will be quite respectable if they can get everyone healthy. Strasburg-Zimmermann-Wang-Marquis-Detwiler as a potential starting 5 is pretty stout.
Again, I just found it fascinating that a 5 man rotation could have such an average velocity in Suppan territory.
Again, why not write about the Brewers, who are underperforming BECAUSE they built themselves a soft-tossing rotation, rather than the Nationals, who have a soft-tossing rotation because of injuries or youth?
Just because the Nationals are an easy target?