Neil Weinberg FanGraphs Q&A – 12/3/14
| 2:39 |
: Hi all, we’ll begin at 3pm. Load up the queue with stat/data/FG/any other baseball related questions and we’ll chat. See you then
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| 3:00 |
: Alright, let’s get started. FYI I am @NeilWeinberg44 on Twitter if you have inquiries throughout the rest of the week.
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| 3:01 |
Am I correct in understanding that while both are great prospects, Buxton is the better real life and Sano is the better fantasy prospect? |
| 3:01 |
: That’s probably fair to say.
|
| 3:01 |
Hi Neil. Is Rendon going to get time at second next year or has he become a third baseman exclusively? Chase Headley would make a lot of sense for the Nationals if they move Rendon back to second. |
| 3:02 |
: Would expect Rendon at 3B.
|
| 3:02 |
I feel like I’m missing something. Why did the Mariners want a RH power bat in a park that depresses RH power. It’s like the opposite of the McCann in Yankee Stadium logic. Explain? Thanks. |
| 3:03 |
: The logic is that they need a RHH who can still hit bombs at Safeco, and they think Cruz is capable of that.
|
| 3:03 |
Thanks for the chat Neil! I’ve been periphrally aware of sabr in the recent years and have very raw understanding (K%, GB%, LD%, etc) but can’t quite translate it very well. What’s the best place to start? |
| 3:04 |
: Our Library is full of helpful stuff:
http://www.fangraphs.com/li… Also, go here (my Library blog entries) and read from the bottom: I’ve tried to cover the basics |
| 3:04 |
Is there a way to quantify how good an individual player is at positioning himself? For that matter, how do fielding metrics account for positioning? Some of it (idk how much) is likely the player so it shouldn’t be discounted. Would identifying which players have the best range/hands be more useful for a team trying to improve their defence? The player would seemingly have a higher ceiling defensively. |
| 3:06 |
: Current defensive stats don’t do anything about the players who move three steps to their right before a pitch, so that essentially gets combined into range. So a player with good range in the numbers really has some combination of good range and good positioning. Some is on the player, some on the coaching staff. Hopefully, StatCast will allow us to track starting points and that will change.
But individual teams are paying attention to positioning and have a sense of which players are rangy and which are “smart” |
| 3:06 |
Is Joc Pederson the Dodgers starting CF in 2015 seems like he’s the only true CF of the 6 |
| 3:07 |
: I think he winds up getting most of the reps, but that he’ll have a job share in some fashion. Maybe some time for Heisey, a little for SVS, a little for Puig. Really depends on who gets dealt.
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| 3:07 |
So, my biggest frustration with the Fangraphs stat library is the Team Positional Stats. For example: Team Stats Batting for 2014 and CF: Dodgers had 446 Games and a 7.6 WAR because it includes all the stats for any player who touched CF during the course of the season. So, it has all Puig’s, all Kemp’s, all of Ethier’s and Joc’s stats from the entire season regardless of the position they played that day. Is there a way to keep track of the players stats for when they are playing CF? |
| 3:07 |
: Yes. Use the “split” dropdown menu and select “CF”
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| 3:08 |
: Here’s a link about how to use the leaderboard with other nuggets like that http://www.fangraphs.com/li…
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| 3:09 |
Do you see the Cardinals making any additional moves regarding bench players? Specifically: What is the solution at 1B? |
| 3:10 |
: Well what they need is for one of their 832 outfielders to be able to play the infield! Wonder if they could get Holliday some time at 1B? Really the move I’m watching for is a back end starter
|
| 3:10 |
Red Sox’ new offseason strategy: Buy ALL of the players, let injuries shake out the roster, profit. Sound about right? |
| 3:11 |
: It’s not a bad plan. I’ve been advocating the Tigers do a version of this for a couple years. I assume teams don’t want to have the crowded roster problem because it breeds bad feelings, but I like it.
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| 3:11 |
Any non-tendered guys that you would’ve tendered? |
| 3:12 |
: I thought it was odd that the Jays didn’t tended Dirks and Mayberry and then signed Carrera. I probably would have kept the Braves pitchers, but they know more about their medical info than I do.
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| 3:13 |
Are the Cubs now in “win” mode or are they still 1 year away as they wait on Bryant and Russell? If they are still 1 year away, would it be smarter to take a chance on short term guys like they have been or should they still go after Scherzer if they don’t get Lester? |
| 3:14 |
: I think they’re basically ready to contend in 2015. They aren’t positioned to be an elite team, but they are good enough to compete for a WC for sure and signing Max or Lester is fine because they’ll still be good in 2016 and 2017 when the Cubs will really be ready.
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| 3:14 |
Jayson Stark reports that the Tigers and Red Sox have the foundation of a Porcello for Cespedes trade, but that the Tigers could require a SP in return. Would Porcello for Cespedes + one of the young BOS starters (Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens) make sense? |
| 3:15 |
: I think so. I prefer Porcello to Cespedes for the ceiling, but on one year deals, you’re getting pretty similar value. But the Tigers probably want a little more to make it worthwhile and Sox probably don’t mind losing a non-elite pitching prospect too.
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| 3:16 |
Hi, what will be the biggest shock this offseason? |
| 3:16 |
: Orioles sign a good starter.
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| 3:16 |
About what do you think are the odds that McCutchen has a higher WAR in 2015 than Trout? |
| 3:16 |
: 40%
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| 3:16 |
Do guys who take long at-bats have more value on a team full of full swingers (e.g. Markakis on the Orioles) or on a team of other guys who take long at-bats. Does the marginal value of forcing a pitcher to throw an additional pitch go up or down the more pitches you expect him to throw that game? |
| 3:17 |
: You actually don’t want to chase a starter who isn’t an ace. So the value of wearing a pitcher down really comes over an entire season, and you don’t reap the rewards of that, really. But I don’t know the empirical answer to your exact question.
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| 3:17 |
Who would you guess is the mystery team Gammons says is in on Lester? (He notes Cubs, Red Sox and a mystery team as finalists per sources) |
| 3:18 |
: Orioles, Yankees, Tigers, Rangers, Nationals, Dodgers? I’m speculating. No inside info.
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| 3:19 |
Baez straight up for Zimmermann with a window to negotiate an extension. Who says no? |
| 3:19 |
: Cubs. Baez might bust, but there is a lot of pitching on the market. Can get a Zimmerman type for only $$.
|
| 3:19 |
Souza>M. Taylor ROC? |
| 3:20 |
: If I had to bet, yes.
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| 3:20 |
How much would Harper get if he was a free agent right now |
| 3:20 |
: Hmmmm. Let’s see.
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| 3:21 |
: 10/$250M? Hard to say because there’s no precedent for a 22 yr old FA and he’s recently injured. It would be a lot.
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| 3:21 |
Where does Everth Cabrera end up? Low risk, high reward type of signing |
| 3:22 |
: Dodgers make a lot of sense. Yankees might be interesting. A’s even?
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| 3:22 |
Can a statistic be reliable without being valid? |
| 3:23 |
: Sure. Assuming you’re using those words the way I think you are.
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| 3:23 |
Can you set the chat to read in reverse chronological order? Dave did it for the chat at noon so that it would read top down instead of bottom uo? |
| 3:23 |
: Let me see if I can do that
|
| 3:25 |
: I don’t see where he did that. Might have had to before I started. Will ask for next week. Also, the transcript will be in order!
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| 3:25 |
Ubaldo Jimenez for Matt Kemp. Crazy or crazy like Dan Duquette? If you include the sunk money you’d dump on the Jimenez contract, it’s basically the same money Markakis is seeking with an extra year tacked on. |
| 3:25 |
: Would have to look, but I don’t really see why the Dodgers would do that. They can probably eat a little more money and get a useful player.
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| 3:25 |
I have a choice between Sriracha sauce, Tabasco Sauce, and Frank’s Red Hot. Thoughts? |
| 3:26 |
: I need to know what you’re eating.
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| 3:26 |
Is this a decent summary of the thinking on Markakis: He’s approximately a league-average player, which makes him a decently valuable commodity. However, given his age, he may be replacement-level before a 3- or 4-year contract is over. Thus teams shouldn’t pay very much for him–and nowhere near the 4/$48 the Orioles were rumored to offer. ? |
| 3:27 |
: I think the feeling is that there are other ways to acquire Markakis’ value without committing to 4 years. For example, you can probably sign or trade for a two year commitment of a nearly equal player without as much risk. I think that’s a fine point, but I don’t think committing $48M to NM will be a disaster, either.
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| 3:28 |
Do you share my sentiment that the sabermetric community tends to be a little too conservative when it comes to player acquisitions? I feel like a lot of the big splashy moves are often derided by statheads for being too risky or overpays. Cleveland seems like the prime example with lots of saber smart moves but seem to have trouble transitioning from a decent team to a playoff team. I’m beginning to believe that sometimes you gotta step outside the formula and take a gamble even if the numbers say no. That’s what perhaps elevates an Oakland over a Cleveland. |
| 3:30 |
: I think generally, we’ve created a formula for reacting to prominent moves and in doing so, we don’t talk very much about the probabilities.
For example, I think the Blue Jays did better than Oakland in the recent trade. But I’m not 100% certain of that fact. I think that on average, the Jays were 60/40 winners or something. But 40% is decent odds and if you are smart and take advantage of info gaps, you can clean up making a lot of moves like that |
| 3:31 |
: in reality, I think we’re so used to trade reactions that we don’t spend much time on the nuance. Jays win, Oakland could have had more….but we’re not *that* sure about those options.
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| 3:32 |
Could you see a Xander-Harvey/deGrom-Tulo three way deal? Prospects would be involved as well. Mets get their SS to contend and have a lot of pitching. Red Sox get a top end starter,could move Mookie to SS for a year freeing up a slot for Victorino. Rockies get a SS they can sell as a Tulo replacment and save over $100M. |
| 3:33 |
: Hmmm….it’s not….crazy…..it’s a lot to process but the basic outline of Xander-Tulo-pitching from Mets could be a framework.
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| 3:33 |
Is Adam Jones a candidate for regression? His free swinging ways have made him a mainstay on “Caution” lists. Has he earned our trust as a Top 10 fantasy player or is this the year he gets bit? |
| 3:33 |
: I always think Jones is going to collapse and so far he hasn’t. He’s probably going to be a guy who falls off a cliff at some point, but that cliff might be a ways off
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| 3:34 |
As a pirates fan, I think the Reds and Brewers futures are not good but the Cardinals and now the Cubs will be tough to contend with. Are there any moves the Pirates can make this year to push forward. I think they need to take a real shot over the next 4 years with Cutch and worry about 5 years from now later. |
| 3:35 |
: Would be fun to see them get in on Tulo, but how much can they spend? The window is now for the Pirates. While this young, talented core is together. Donaldson could have been cool too.
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| 3:35 |
I can’t wait until some genius figures out how to apply a technology similar to StatCast to old baseball footage. This will happen… right? |
| 3:36 |
: I would be embarrassed if you knew how much I thought about how this would work. Realistically, there just isn’t enough useful footage.
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| 3:36 |
Any clue as to why the jays threw away 200k on smoak? seems kinda weird |
| 3:36 |
: Probably didn’t expect to get Donaldson and Martin when they picked up Smoak, just cut their losses.
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| 3:37 |
Why wouldn’t that be the the default setting for team stats? Who would care about the combined stats of any player who happened to play a few innings in CF but spent almost the entire season in RF? |
| 3:37 |
: There are disagreements about what people want to see when they click “CF.” Both options are available.
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| 3:37 |
When the Jays traded Gose for Travis, I figured we’d solved our second base problem, especially considering that Steamer projects him as an average hitter and scouts say he can handle second, along with the whole young and cheap thing. So what’s up with the rumours that we’re still looking for second basemen, e.g. Callaspo? Do you think there’s good reason for that, am I missing something? |
| 3:40 |
: Couple things: 1) There are conflicting views on his glove. Some people say he can be solid there, some think he can’t. 2) He’s constantly injured. Basically every year. There are real durability concerns. 3) This is a player who *has* to hit and I haven’t seen anyone hang a top notch grade on that tool.
Travis could turn out to really work at 2B, but he’s not a guy I would treat as sink or swim. Insurance needed |
| 3:40 |
Mookie for Stroman: Who says no in a hypothetical world where teams are reasonable and don’t believe in division nonsense? |
| 3:40 |
: Sox say no, I think. But that’s the kind of thing that gets a deal rolling.
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| 3:40 |
Any actual examples of ‘he lives there in the offseason/grew up there!’ actually influencing a player to sign somewhere? Hear it a lot in rumors but it seems like it never actually pans out. |
| 3:41 |
: I think 1) it happens to be true in some cases, so we latch onto those and 2) we as regular people who care a lot about that. I have no idea if there’s real evidence either way.
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| 3:42 |
When you state that a certain type of stats “stabilize” over an x period of time, what are you referring to from a statistical standpoint? For ex, I seem to recall that in a previous chat you stated that iso stabilizes over 200-300 PA. Could you refer me to any references regarding the period of times that different stats stabilize? |
| 3:43 |
: This is industry speak for getting the R^2 about .5 using split half reliability….I think. Russell Carelton (aka Pizza Cutter) did the most popular work. Some references here http://www.fangraphs.com/li…
|
| 3:43 |
: Stabilize is not really the proper word, but it’s the lingo we use
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| 3:44 |
In hockey, players who put their dominant hand on the upper part of the stick have more power while guys who put the dominant hand down tend to have more control. Does this same logic apply to baseball? The reason I ask is that it seems like a lot of switch-hitters are very different from one side of the plate(like Neil walker hits homers as a lefty and singles(and lots of outs) as a righty) |
| 3:44 |
: I don’t think it works the same way, but I’m not the right person to ask. Interesting question though!
|
| 3:44 |
ZIPS and steamer projections are so hard to compare. Is there a simple way (especially for pitching lines) to translate one to the other? (specifically, steamer ERA/WHIP are so much more conservative…) |
| 3:45 |
: Kind of the nature of the beast. I recommend looking into or asking about the league average numbers and going from there.
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| 3:46 |
I am eatting Ghost Peppers. |
| 3:46 |
: I don’t know what those are. Going to say FRH
|
| 3:46 |
What are the three most important stats when evaluating hitters? |
| 3:47 |
: wRC+, K%, BB%, ISO….plate discipline numbers……all rate stats. So obviously be sure to make sure you’re looking at # of PA as well
|
| 3:47 |
Why is the outfield of the Nationals ballpark oriented to give views of Southeast DC instead of due north to give views of the Capitol Dome? I get that many ballparks are oriented in that direction for the sun but it seems like a pretty huge tradeoff to cover an iconic view like that. |
| 3:47 |
: Better question: Why is the press box there located on the moon?
|
| 3:47 |
Real or fake Christmas Tree? |
| 3:48 |
: We do fake, but I don’t really have a strong opinion. I have only celebrated since meeting my wife, and they’ve always gone fake.
|
| 3:48 |
It was a trick question. It doesn’t matter what I’m eating. Sriracha is always the right answer. |
| 3:48 |
: Darn it.
|
| 3:48 |
i was looking through Josh hamilton’s player page… he had an 8 Win season…. crap i had no idea. wow. |
| 3:49 |
: Josh Hamilton’s career is crazy.
|
| 3:49 |
What do you think about Tulo to the A’s? |
| 3:49 |
: Fits on the roster, not really sure how they make the money work.
|
| 3:49 |
If there’s an expansion team in Brooklyn, what would be a realistic compensation paid to NYM and NYY for relinquishing their territorial rights (that they’d actually agree to?) |
| 3:50 |
: This is a better question for Dave or Wendy (who no longer writers here 🙁 ). I don’t have any real sense of the actual $ they’d lose. But it seems like a lot because otherwise it would be easier to move the A’s to San Jose
|
| 3:50 |
Regarding the Mets, could Wilmer Flores, Matt Reynolds, or even Daniel Muno emerge as an obvious starter at SS in spring training? Is the Mets “need” for a SS being overblown by the media? |
| 3:50 |
: They could. But I would not bet on that happening.
|
| 3:50 |
What are we doing |
| 3:51 |
: I really don’t know. Can’t really tell what the plan is. I think the Braves are trying to do a quick rebuild and we’re just too early in the game to see it
|
| 3:51 |
have participants in this chat increased? I look forward to this one every week, i enjoy hearing your responses, and have been surprised to see so many of my questions answered. |
| 3:52 |
: Certainly many more people than when I started. I try really hard to answer all the questions, or all of the ones I have good answers for that come in before about 4pm. So if you ask a lot of stuff early you have good odds.
|
| 3:52 |
Wait the Astros are in the AL? |
| 3:52 |
: I am just getting used to this.
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| 3:52 |
How long have you been at FanGraphs? |
| 3:53 |
: Officially started in July, I think.
|
| 3:54 |
How do the depth charts get compiled on FG? It seems that sometimes players get more/less PT than they should (eg Yusmeiro Petit has both SP and RP innings right now giving him more IP than any other pitcher for 2015) |
| 3:54 |
: Each division has a person who is responsible for the playing time. It’s an inexact science, especially in the offseason.
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| 3:54 |
Will baseball ever work in Colorado? |
| 3:55 |
: Yeah, this is a tough one. I can’t get over the breaking balls not breaking part of things.
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| 3:55 |
How about baseball in Portland, Oregon? |
| 3:55 |
: A real contender when the league goes to 32.
|
| 3:55 |
Machado, Puig and Rendon all project to be 5 WAR players next year, over the next 5 years who is the better player? |
| 3:55 |
: I think the smart money is on Puig, but Rendon is my personal favorite on the list
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| 3:56 |
BELTRE |
| 3:56 |
: This is out of context, but I agree.
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| 3:56 |
Is it possible that Allen Craig was just James Loney breaking into the Show much later in life? The .ISO decline through the first 1100 PAs for Loney and first 1400 PAs for Craig are very similar, and Loney’s power never returned despite his youth. Is a BABIP dependent 270-300/300-330 with a 120-140 ISO and a >20% K rate really a major leaguer? |
| 3:58 |
: Craig has hit better than Loney during their best days, but they’re both low K, low BB, meh power types.
|
| 3:58 |
: Craig’s a major leaguer for sure.
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| 3:58 |
Who is the next player to win MVP without 30HR? (non-pitcher) |
| 3:58 |
: This is fun.
|
| 3:59 |
: Addison Russell?
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| 3:59 |
Saunders+Taylor/Miller for Zimmermann+random minor leaguer? I’m no good at these fake trade proposals but Zimmermann would give Seattle a killer top 3 without another big contract on the books. |
| 4:00 |
: That is the kind of thing that sounds pretty fair, but Zimmerman is a big name so people will hate it. JZ is good, but he’s also a $16.5 million guy.
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| 4:00 |
What is the logic behind the jays non-tendering smoak, mayberry and dirks? |
| 4:00 |
: I don’t really know.
|
| 4:00 |
Do you think there’s any chance that Jacob Turner could follow the Wade Davis/Andrew Miller route of busted starter prospect that becomes elite reliever? |
| 4:01 |
: I still think he winds up being a decent starter. But yes.
|
| 4:01 |
Would the public be more keen on using plate appearances instead of at-bats if plate appearances had a cooler name? |
| 4:01 |
: The problem is the lingo. Everyone cares about PA rather than AB and think saying AB means PA.
|
| 4:02 |
i have no hard data to back it up but it seems like the “player X grew up here/lives here in the off season” rationales seem to mostly work for veteran player with only a couple years left, not players looking for the biggest contract they will ever get in their life. |
| 4:02 |
: That makes some sense. It’s always a personal decision. On average, I bet it’s more important to people with wives and kids, but I’m guessing
|
| 4:02 |
Real or fake menorah? |
| 4:02 |
: Real.
|
| 4:03 |
Do you like chats? |
| 4:03 |
: Yeah. Was actually a lot of work at first to keep up, but you figure it out
|
| 4:05 |
Justin Upton and Cody Martin for Taijuan Walker? |
| 4:05 |
: I don’t know that much about Martin. Upton for Walker is a no-go for Seattle. So Martin has to be good, I don’t know how much his stock rose this year, if at all
|
| 4:05 |
Sriracha is good, but overrated. Sambal oelek is a far superior product. |
| 4:06 |
: Ketchup is good.
/runs away |
| 4:06 |
If Joe Mauer was traded, who would he be a fit for? |
| 4:07 |
: SEA, MIA, PIT, this is a weird list….he’s tough to trade because you need a team with room at the position and cash….hmm
|
| 4:08 |
Why are triples used to create ISO? It seems that is more of a speed component rather than a power component…I don’t see Prince crushing double digit triples… |
| 4:08 |
: Same is true with slugging. It’s really more a measure of extra base ability than truly power
|
| 4:08 |
what are the cubs waiting for to make a big splash? im the one who asks every week about the 1000$ bet i made with a buddy about them winning 79 games or more… im beginning to get nervous! |
| 4:09 |
: Winter meetings start Monday. The time is coming
|
| 4:09 |
What’s a better way to evaluate a team based on their Zips projections, rather than adding up WAR totals on the depth chart? |
| 4:10 |
: If you use the Depth Charts, you’d in the right direction, because we adjust for playing time. But you have to pay attention to the fact that projections are all conservative. They’re a solid estimate but they have plenty of variation
|
| 4:10 |
Why on Earth did the Braves non-Tender both Medlen and Beachy? |
| 4:10 |
: Presumably they think they can’t pitch until midseason and don’t want to burn the cash?
|
| 4:10 |
Since breaking balls don’t break as well in colorado, why don’t fastballs go faster? |
| 4:11 |
: I don’t think there’s enough time for it to matter. I believe they would slow down less quickly but 60 feet is too short to notice. Better question for @pobguy
|
| 4:11 |
Wow, Steamer has Torii Hunter worth 1.7 WAR in his age-39 season. Seems high, right? |
| 4:11 |
: Not crazy if you think his defense can go from terrible back to kinda bad. I would be the under, slightly.
|
| 4:12 |
I saw speculation that the Braves are (or should be?) making moves to put them in better position in 2017, when they move to the burbs. |
| 4:12 |
: They need to tweak the roster, but 2016 is doable too
|
| 4:12 |
Over/under: year we see wRC+ consistently appear on a local broadcast – 2017 |
| 4:12 |
: Consistently on one single broadcast or on all local? Still over. But Houston is showing lots of stuff like that on occasion
|
| 4:12 |
Is Torey Lovullo gonna be a manager someday? |
| 4:12 |
: Next time around.
|
| 4:13 |
How appealing is Juan Francisco to a team that needs a power hitting 3B, and how would you compare him to Chase Headley? |
| 4:13 |
: Much worse. Not a bad platoon option but not close to Headley
|
| 4:13 |
difference between PA and AB? |
| 4:14 |
: PA is every time you get to the plate. AB is hits, strikeouts, non-sacrifice outs
|
| 4:14 |
my man crush on nathan eovaldi wants him to remain a starter- but out of the pen i feel like he could be nasty. |
| 4:14 |
: This isn’t a question. But yes.
|
| 4:14 |
Aarong Gleeman > Carson Citsuli or other way around when it comes to ground breaking under the radar MLB activities? |
| 4:14 |
: I don’t understand this question.
|
| 4:14 |
If Mike Trout is player A and Mike Stanton is Player B that who is most likely to be player C ? Kris Bryant, Byron Buxton or Frankie Lindor? |
| 4:15 |
: I also don’t understand this question.
|
| 4:15 |
wRC+ is supposed to be park-adjusted, but it’s based on wOBA, which is based on league-wide linear weights. Wouldn’t it be more accurate to, when calculating wRC+, adjust a player’s wOBA using park-adjusted linear weights? You might get very different wRC+ values if you calculated everyone’s wOBA with, say Coors Field run expectancies rather than Safeco Field run expectancies. Or does the park factor adjustment already account for this? |
| 4:16 |
: Park factor is basically doing this. But park factors could be more refined to make it work better.
|
| 4:16 |
what would it take for the jays to get fowler? |
| 4:16 |
: Not that much.
|
| 4:16 |
Fun fact: the last three NL MVPs all had less than 30 homers. |
| 4:17 |
: I picked an NL player!
|
| 4:17 |
how do you say Taijuan? like Tay. Juan. or TIEjuan or what? |
| 4:17 |
: I’ve always heard it TIE-JUAN.
|
| 4:18 |
how many home runs does Mike “The ultimate bro” Morse hit next year and for whom? |
| 4:18 |
: 23 for BAL
|
| 4:18 |
re triples and ISO: So few triples are hit that numbers wouldn’t change very much. Agree? |
| 4:18 |
: You probably wouldn’t notice.
|
| 4:18 |
Did I expect to much too soon from 1 Byron Buxton or possibly Miguel Sano in some of the moves i’ve been making: I.E. Ricky Nolasco? |
| 4:19 |
: Both got hurt. It happens.
|
| 4:19 |
Is Donaldson the player with the highest 2015 WAR traded this offseason? |
| 4:19 |
: Heyward’s in the game.
|
| 4:19 |
I CAN’T STAND THIS ANY MORE! THERE ARE MISSING QUESTIONS TO ANSWERS POSED. THERE ARE MISSING ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS POSTED AND WHEN I TRY TO SCROLL ONE QUESTION AT A TIME (I’M 15 BEHIND) IT STARTS FLYING TOWARDS THE TOP 4 OUT OF 5 ATTEMPTS. SOMEONE PLEASE FIND A BETTER ALTERNATIVE! |
| 4:19 |
: I know. I know. The transcript will be in the right order if that helps.
|
| 4:20 |
for now I will have to wait for the transcript and be completely absent from the ongoing dialog that happens in the chat. A really disappointing fact of life with Live Chat. |
| 4:20 |
: 🙁
|
| 4:20 |
Over/Under Alex Rodriguez PA in 2015: 400 |
| 4:20 |
: That sounds about right.
|
| 4:20 |
what tweaks can be made to park factors to make them better? is there something we dont understand like for example the oakland visitor locker rooms are known to be disgusting. maybe this affects park factors because guys cant take pregame dumps in fear of falling in ? |
| 4:21 |
: We use a single factor for each park, but in reality, parks play differently for L/R, certain types of pitchers, etc. There’s more we could do.
|
| 4:21 |
how do the sox juggle their ooutfield? who gets the lions share of PA? |
| 4:21 |
: Hanley, Castillo/Betts/Victorino job share. Cespedes traded. Craig or Napoli gets dealt. Nava might be too
|
| 4:21 |
It’ll be fun to watch Lawrie have so much foul territory to run around in this year, right? |
| 4:22 |
: I had not considered this. Although JD was fun in that regard too
|
| 4:22 |
buxton/sano or bryant/baez next 10 years? |
| 4:22 |
: Cubs guys. Close though.
|
| 4:22 |
Were you a Topps, Fleer, or Donruss guy way back in the day (80’s)? |
| 4:22 |
: I was a not-alive-guy in the 1980s.
|
| 4:22 |
FWIW I think the Sox keep Nava because of a lack of left handed bats (only Sandoval, Ortiz currently) |
| 4:23 |
: Very possible, just depends on how they clear everything else out.
|
| 4:23 |
Chances the Phillies trade anyone this winter? Literally, anyone. |
| 4:23 |
: 90%
|
| 4:23 |
Rank the following OFs in descending order of WAR amassed during 2015: Pirates, Red Sox, Marlins |
| 4:23 |
: In that order.
|
| 4:23 |
If Lawrie lands Donaldson, What would it take to land McCutchen? Could Betts do it?(Interesting ZipS #1 comp FP Betts IS McCutchen |
| 4:25 |
: In theory, Betts is the centerpiece of a Cutch type deal, but you need to add in the other stuff the A’s got to get close. Even though Cutch and JD are close in terms of value last two years, Cutch gets a bigger return because he was supposed to be this good and people don’t forget that
|
| 4:25 |
What happens to knuckleballs in Colorado? |
| 4:25 |
: I’m not sure we have much of a sample to analyze….? Someone look into this.
|
| 4:25 |
: Last chance to get questions in!
|
| 4:26 |
Worse contract in the end: Pujols or Cabrera? |
| 4:27 |
: Pujols
|
| 4:27 |
Kinsler plus $5/yr gets you what? |
| 4:28 |
: A slightly worse, but cheaper player or a good not great prospect and some stuff.
|
| 4:28 |
is the Giancarlo deal 13 years or 6 years long exactly? |
| 4:28 |
: It’s 6 with a 7 year player option
|
| 4:28 |
Is baseball the sport most affected by where it’s played (both weather and park dimensions)? Only competition I can think of is football in a dome vs football in snow. |
| 4:28 |
: Of the major sports, gotta be baseball
|
| 4:28 |
Pirates called you , and offered Alen Hanson, Gregory Polanco, Nick Kingham and Tony Sanchez + another prospect for Miguel Sano and Alex Meyer and Brian Dozier ? what do you do if you’re Twins GM? |
| 4:29 |
: Take it, probably. But I’d have to get reports on the non-Polanco people because I’m not a prospect guy.
|
| 4:29 |
Will Marcus Stroman continue his success in the rotation in 2015? |
| 4:30 |
: Pitches worse, but throws more innings. Winds up being pretty close to 2014 value
|
| 4:30 |
Is Alex Rios a good fit for the Tigers? |
| 4:30 |
: Yes.
|
| 4:30 |
The Red Sox won 71 games last year and just added two players that maybe improve them seven wins, yet somehow they’re already being picked to win the division. Are people ahead of themselves here? |
| 4:31 |
: Bogaerts and Betts should be better. Castillo maybe. Victorino is healthy. Plus we are all assuming they are getting some pitchers.
|
| 4:31 |
Nationals should really trade Stras for a good package over trading Zimm for a mediocre one? right? |
| 4:31 |
: I would.
|
| 4:31 |
Matt Harvey will be the number ____ pitcher in the NL in 2015 |
| 4:31 |
: ~10, and then top 5 in 2016.
|
| 4:32 |
: Alright, going to have to wrap this up. Let’s do it again next week. I’m @NeilWeinberg44 on Twitter if you’re looking for me.
|
Neil Weinberg is the Site Educator at FanGraphs and can be found writing enthusiastically about the Detroit Tigers at New English D. Follow and interact with him on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44.
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