Neil Weinberg FanGraphs Q&A – 9/17/14

Neil Weinberg: Hey all, we’ll chat at 3pm. Remember priority to stat, data, FG questions, but happy to take regular baseball talk as well. I’m @NeilWeinberg44 on Twitter if you want to get in touch.

See you soon!

Neil Weinberg: Alright, hey everyone!

Neil Weinberg: Let’s do some chatting.

Comment From Tim Whatley
I would obviously take Pedro over Kershaw in terms of level of peak years (those dominant yrs during the PED era is insane). But in terms of sustained greatness over a longer period of time….have to give it to Kershaw if he does this a few more years…Agree?

Neil Weinberg: Big if, Pedro was amazing for a nice amount of time. To be determined. He has been good enough for this to be a plausible question.

Comment From Pete
Hey Neil, thanks for doing this. As a batted ball type, how stable is IFFB%? What kind of sample size thereof might be meaningful?

Neil Weinberg: Let’s fire up the ol’ correlation machine!

Neil Weinberg: Looks like the percentage of FB that are IFFB (IFFB%) probably needs about two years, but raw, IFFB/BIP is probably a bit less for whatever reason.

Classification issues are an issue here, but I wouldn’t make too much of two months of pop ups, for example regardless.

Comment From Josh
In your opinion should defense position adjustments be increased, decreased or stay the same

Neil Weinberg: I think there is a good case to be made that we should update them. We haven’t do that in a while. I think you might be able to bring LF down a few runs and also increase C a few runs. But they are a bit tricky and the key for me is to understand their possible range.

You know a SS is better than a 2B. Is it 10 runs? I don’t know, but it’s greater than 0 and it’s probably less than 20. 10 was out best guess a few years ago, but these things can change as baseball changes.

Comment From Brad
As a general rule, if a player’s UZR is outstripping the positional adjustment (either positively or negatively), could/should that player be moved up or down the defensive spectrum?

Neil Weinberg: Depends. If they do it for a long time, (like post +20 at 2B every year), they can probably move to SS. But, it’s never quite that simple because some players are good for reasons that don’t translate as well to other spots. Like a LF with an insane arm won’t play up in CF the same way one with insane range would. Positional adjustments are estimates built on complicated interactions. So, in theory, yes. But in practice, it is tricky.

Comment From Arnold
Do you think that JD Martinez can do next year what he has done this year?

Neil Weinberg: This? No. Can he be solid? I think he’s got a shot at a .330-.350 wOBA. It’s so hard to be this good with his K and BB profile. You can do it, but the power has to be insane. I’m not sure one year of insane power is enough for me to trust a .400 wOBA.

But I do think he’s probably no longer a AAAA guy.

Comment From Mike
Why is the distinction between earned and unearned runs not meaningful when evaluating pitchers?

Neil Weinberg: Earned runs are based on errors. But errors aren’t the only way defense can completely screw up an inning.

If you just totally run past a fly ball in the OF, you aren’t getting an error but the pitch got a routine fly out.

Comment From Sean
Is there any way to compute the confidence interval/standard error for WAR or components of it?

Neil Weinberg: Yes. I think some people have toyed around with this. I would do it by calculating the standard deviation by component (Def, Bat, BsR, etc) and building in something that could handle the fact that defense has more variable than base running, for ex. I think we’re all aware of the need to do this in some way, but it’s hard to really come up with the right way.

But, yes, WAR is an estimate with uncertainty around it. 100%.

Comment From Jheff
I am trying to look at all players stats over a specific timespan, May 1 to today, how do I do this>

Neil Weinberg: You can’t do this on the site right now. You can do individual players like this, or you can look at all players for certain intervals. I know this is something people would like and it’s on my list of stuff to recommend.

Comment From Ben
How accurate are park adjusted stats?

Neil Weinberg: Define accurate. Seriously, not being a jerk. What do you mean when you say accurate?

Comment From Bob
Does UZR or DRS take into account base runners when determining the runs saved per play? Specifically, a SS with a double play opportunity (runner on 1st) will shade towards the middle, so ground balls up the middle theoretically should be easier to get to. Or if the outfield is in late in the game because there’s a runner on 3rd with less than two outs, a standard fly ball wins, so the OF might not try to catch that ball. Is that considered a failure of a routine play?

Neil Weinberg: So these little basic things where you might shift a little are not considered by UZR and I don’t believe they are by DRS either. Serious shifts are thrown out. This is definitely a place where measurement error creeps into defensive stats and I suspect we’re going to see improvements to this, maybe as soon as next year.

Comment From Lorenzo
I have grown dissatisfied with Excel’s graphing capabilities. Is there any other (cheap/free) software you might recommend?

Neil Weinberg: I use Excel a lot. I have trouble with Google Sheets graphing. Programming types like R because you can tell it to do whatever you want, but you have to learn codes rather than click. I don’t have a good rec, otherwise. Anyone?

Comment From Mack
Do you know if there exists a version of WAR for pitchers that is based solely on pitches thrown (using Pitch F/X data or something similar)? It seems odd to credit pitchers for throwing bad pitches that result in strikeouts or to penalize them for good pitches that end up as home runs.

Neil Weinberg: Perhaps someone is working on this, but nothing is out there. The tough thing about this is deciding what is a good pitch. It’s really hard to build a metric that knows if your high fastball was good or bad. That may sound silly, but try it! Very hard.

Comment From Robert Hombre
When calculating pitcher WAR, it’s said that a pitcher’s run prevention impacts his own run environment. In the sense that teams score fewer runs when he’s on the hill, so one should expect him to give up fewer runs – sure. What I’m unclear on is the purpose – either mathematical and/or qualitative – on separating pitcher from this aspect of his run environment. Pls help, Lord Protector of Number ‘Splainin.

Neil Weinberg: So the basic logic here is that the better you are (let’s say you’re Kershaw) is that the number of runs/FIP you allow per inning impacts your own personal run to win calculation.

In other words, if you allow 1.00 RA9, you’re influencing the run environment in a way that makes it easier for your team to win because they can score fewer runs to achieve the same thing.

It’s kind of tricky to explain and I’m not sure I did it well. There will be a section on this when I update pitcher WAR in the next couple weeks. Sorry!

Comment From Bob
For xFIP, is the HR/FB comparison percentage adjusted for park? Should it be?

Neil Weinberg: No and no. If you want to park adjust, use xFIP-, which is park adjusted xFIP.

Comment From Toby
Can you explain why hitters receive 57% of WAR each year vs. pitcher’s 43%? Do you think this needs to be tweaked at all?

Neil Weinberg: So there is obviously a split between the two. We also know that hitters should be greater than pitchers because hitters hit and play defense while pitchers only pitch. So its’ 51/49 or more. We estimate 57/43 based on 1) how much teams seem to pay for these skills and 2) how much we think defense plays a role in run prevention.

I don’t see a strong argument for moving away from 57/43, but I also don’t necessarily think it should be taken as gospel.

If you can make an empirical argument for a change, there are many people who would listen.

Comment From DLowe
Hi Neil, Corey Kluber got a lot of press on FG last year (including the Corey Kluber Society) promoting him as a breakout candidate. Now that he has done that this year (and exceeded even the optimistic expectations), who are your top 2 or 3 candidates to do the same thing next year? Thanks

Neil Weinberg: Well, this is theoretically a question for Carson, because he was the Kluber guy before any of us were Kluber guys.

Good question though. Might have to think about it!

Comment From Big Jerry and the Chatanoogga 7
Neil you rock! A question re: BIS and batted ball types (GB/LD/FB%). How reliable are these figures? Do you trust these numbers?

Neil Weinberg: I’m not sure of their official reliability, but typically you can trust GB vs LD+FB pretty well. It’s the LD and FB distinction that’s tricky. I would say you can trust these numbers within a few percent, but don’t look at a 43 FB% and think it’s definitely 43%, because the reality is that there’s no perfect cut point.

Comment From Bill
How come FG does not offer pitcher’s RAA in it’s value section. It gives RAR and WAR, but not RAA?

Neil Weinberg: I guess we could? I’m going to do a long thing on pitcher WAR in a week or two, so you can draw on that if it’s important to you.

Comment From Ben
Do you find either the BIS or PITCHf/x plate discipline numbers to be more reliable? Is it just a matter of personal preference?

Neil Weinberg: I use PITCHf/x more than BIS because they aren’t adjusted by hand. I like that BIS does that, but it also means that I might be dealing with changing definitions. Also, fun fact, the data gets much better over time. So like 2008 data is not as good as 2012 data. Even though it’s presented the same.

BIS is good, it’s juts Pfx is a little more safe in terms of what you’re dealing with

Comment From Guest
what few players differ significantly in FG defense measures than in other references for defense. ie SDI or other?

Neil Weinberg: Don’t know off hand, but a good way to check is to go to our fielding section and compare UZR and DRS. We use UZR in our WAR calcs, B-Ref uses DRS, so you can compare both on our site.

Comment From Josh
How will run values be gathered from field f/x? or will it just be speed and route efficiency.

Neil Weinberg: Would assume we’d use similar methods to UZR, but the input will just be able to control for the precise velocity of the ball and then distance between the fielder and the landing spot rather than just assuming the fielder started in the typical location.

But I could be wrong, I’m not very creative.

Comment From Guest
i noticed that Miguel Gonzalez has a LOB% this year of 84.5, which is absurd and surely not sustainable, while Strasburg has a LOB% of 73.9, which is in line with his career average but seems low for an elite level starter. is this an actual skill or just the result of good/bad luck and timing (like hitting with RISP)?

Neil Weinberg: LOB% is correlated with skill because good pitchers allow multiple hits and walks per inning less often, but there is a big randomness component. So an elite starter might hover around IDK, 78%, but bounce from 73 to 82 while an average starter would bounce from 69 to78 or something

Comment From Sean
@Lorenzo Tableau Public is free and can do something amazing data viz + graphing http://www.tableausoftware….

Comment From Timmy and Tommy
What do you think is a reasonable comparison of what Buxton will provide compared with what fellow speedster, Hamilton, gave this year offensively?

Neil Weinberg: Buxton is probably slightly less talented in the field and on the bases relative to 2014 Hamilton, but the bat should be much better.

Comment From Jheff
Why not keep it at 57/43, but make the extremes closer to the midde?

Neil Weinberg: This is an argument for regressing defensive numbers, which you can’t exactly do if you don’t shrink their importance. You could regress big values, although I’m not a big fan of that strategy.

Comment From Jheff
Good question is code for ‘I dont have an answer.’

Neil Weinberg: Not sure it’s code, but basically yes.

Comment From Pol Pot
Is it better to use Def, DRS or UZR to evaluate a defensive player?

Neil Weinberg: Def, because it includes the positional adjustment. DRS and UZR are relative to position average, so comparing a 1B and SS requires you add in the positional adjustment

Comment From sinep
Would Kershaw be your MVP this year?

Neil Weinberg: I think so. I haven’t fully decided and it’s close enough that someone could catch him down the stretch, but I’m leaning that way.

Comment From Robert Hombre
Jason Kipnis, peculiarly, is regarded by FG/BBRef defense as ~6 runs below average, whereas BP’s Fielding RAA has him as ~9 runs *above* average. Faced with a conflict like that, how would Neil Weinberg treat the extreme divergences?

Neil Weinberg: Probably use the FRAA number to info the other two. So DRS/UZR see him as -8 to -10 (+2.5 pos adj), so I’ll give him a little bonus for his good FRAA mark and call it something like -5 to -6

Comment From twinkie
does yusmeiro petit hold down that sp role in sf for next year too. What can we expect for him if he does?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t know if the Giants have anyone obvious to push him out coming up, but I think he’s probably capable of being an average starter? I confess I don’t know about his durability. But he’s capable of performing at that level while on the mound

Comment From Reknaw
Andrelton Simmons has a 73 wRC+ (-16.8 Off), but because of his defence (20.3 Def) he has a 2.3 WAR, do you think that is accurate of his value?

Neil Weinberg: That seems about right.

Comment From twinkie
what’s andrew susac’s role next year in San Fran?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t suppose he can play anywhere other than catcher? Nice backup.

Comment From Hideki Tojo
Would Matt Kemp be better off as a LF/RF or as a DH?

Neil Weinberg: Let’s check his current numbers!

Neil Weinberg: DH, if you buy his bad defense so far. If you think it’s because of the injuries or whatever and he’ll be better, then LF/RF. He has performed in a way this year that would make him better off as a DH if he was going to do this again

Comment From Bob
Is it more difficult to generate an outlier WAR value in the current environment or back in the deadball/pre-integration era? I’m assuming there’s more talent, currently, so is it easier or more difficult for the best to stand out?

Neil Weinberg: Probably in the earlier era, but that’s based on a few seconds of thinking. Could be wrong.

Comment From Hideki Tojo
Who is your favourite for most overpaid free agent this year?

Neil Weinberg: Hanley or Shields. Not that either is bad, but they are the kinds of players I can see one or two teams going crazy over relative to their worth.

Neil Weinberg: Hanley, because a team will dream about his health. Shields, because a team will overvalue his durability.

Comment From Yahya Khan
What should the Tigers do with Nick Castenallos? Absolutely dreadful defence.

Neil Weinberg: 1) There is a decent argument to be made that he’s fixable. His bad rating is based on botching a large number of routine plays. Presumably, you can fix that. Also, he hadn’t played 3B in 1.5 years prior to spring, so there is an adjustment period. So they could wait another year and see how it goes…and they probably will.

2) Move him to a corner OF spot now and get the transition started.

I would let this play out for another year and see. This isn’t sustainable, but it also might be a mirage. Need more data.

Comment From Adolf
Dominic Brown has a -1.7 WAR, was last year just a fluke?

Neil Weinberg: If he doesn’t hit for power, he’s not a good player. He did last year, but hasn’t in his other 1000 PA or so. I wouldn’t say fluke exactly, but he’s probably not an MLB regular.

Comment From Mao Zedong
Is Ryan Braun’s days as a superstar over?

Neil Weinberg: I’m not sure. I think so, but I don’t feel great about the answer. A fully healthy Braun in 2015 is still very much an MVP candidate.

Comment From Josh
are you good with gifs? If yes, then what is a good way to capture a video from mlb.com and make it into a gif? (mac)

Neil Weinberg: I don’t use a mac, but let me see. I know I have Mac instructions somewhere…

Neil Weinberg: I’m told LICEcap is an option?

Comment From Hamilton Porter
In what ways should Buxton’s bat be better?

Neil Weinberg: I’m not a scout but everyone I trust says he has an above average hit tool with potential for plus power.

Comment From Yakubu Gowon
What went wrong with Albert Pujols

Neil Weinberg: He got older.

Comment From Yakubu Gowon
How can I see player IDs without going to excel?

Neil Weinberg: You can’t, although they are in the URL for each player’s page. If you just want one of them.

Comment From Hamilton Porter
Could Buxton realistically pass enough eye, not stat, tests in the AZFL to accelerate his debut?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t think anyone doubts his ability, it’s more a matter of getting enough PA to develop into his potential. I don’t think AFL can offer a huge boost to that, but if he kept developing while injured, we may find out about it at AFL

Comment From DannyB
For comparing players today against players from earlier decades, how much would you adjust (estimate) for the talent improvement. If you were trying to come up w a single number rating how would you factor in strength of competition? 5% increase for each decade a decent estimation?

Neil Weinberg: That seems right, basically. But there are going to be weird spikes during integration and expansion, too.

Comment From DannyB
Favorite baseball simulator or video game ? Any simulator you find more “accurate” than others?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t really get into these. Used to play 2K and MVP but really haven’t had time for more than a simple Ottoneu team in about two years.

Comment From Robert Hombre
Indians Fan here (if you oouldn’t tell from the Kipnis questioning), and I recall that the 2013 Defensive runs below average *approximately* equaled the 2013 ERA-FIP gap. Not at all scientific, but the current approximate equality of team DRAA and ERA-FIP (ra9-fip ideally, but that’s not how FIP’s scaled) seems to be the argument against regressing defense. Is that about right?

Neil Weinberg: Yeah, in a basic sense, WAR correlates with real wins better with defense like this than with defense being narrowed. Just saw a bit of work that suggests it might actually be more like 60/40 rather than 57/43. Hard to say, but we’re close…I think

Comment From Yakubu Gowon
Would you trust FIP or K-BB% for minor league pitchers?

Neil Weinberg: For minor leaguers I would probably recommend looking at all of the components separately. So K%, BB%, HR/9, etc. FIP and K-BB% are great, but we care about projecting their future and certain problems are easier to fix than others. So you want more info.

Comment From Yakubu Gowon
Which teams have the best young pitchers?

Neil Weinberg: Mets?

Comment From Chinky
What is the best for making GIFs on a PC?

Neil Weinberg: Best, no clue. I use HyperCam and iWisoft video converter

Comment From DannyB
Best resource for old game footage? Is MLBAM the only place out there? Have they sufficiently wiped out any and every other site?

Neil Weinberg: It’s hard to find. There is a guy, I can’t remember his name, who has like a baseball history website. He has some videos. iTunes has some. One time, I asked a friend at a network to send me a game tape and he made it happen. It’s tough.

Seems like an easy win for MLB to release old games for free.

Comment From Robert Mugabe
Im trying to look at all Twins stats over history for the month of June, but it wont let me, how do I do this without going through each individual year?

Neil Weinberg: Yeah, we can’t do that here. B-Ref might be able to with the Play index.

Comment From Tubkcid
Who do you think performs better in 2015, Stroman or deGrom?

Neil Weinberg: deGrom?

Comment From DannyB
Is it possible to create a report that shows every players rookie season? Or 3rd season? I get one that shows each players age year, but want each players certain service year. Possible?

Neil Weinberg: You can do rookie (click the rookie check box), but for now we don’t have service years as an option. Just age. Sorry!

Neil Weinberg: Quick break. Keep asking questions and I’ll pick up in a second.

Comment From Guest
Imagine a regular fangraphs reader for 2010-2013 who hasn’t read much this year (due to weird constraints). What do you like talking about on here, Neil?

Neil Weinberg: I’m the site educator, which means it’s my job to help readers and the public understand and use our data and features and stats. But normal baseball questions are cool too!

Comment From jerry
Thanks for the chat. FG authors often reference whiff and GB rates for different pitch types when evaluating pitchers. When do I find that on FG, and what are the league averages? Thanks.

Neil Weinberg: Go the player’s page and click the Pitchfx tab. You can get that for individuals. I don’t know if the specific pitch averages are anywhere on the site, to be honest.

Comment From AndrewY
How long should we wait before passing judgment on rookie hitters? Both Travis D’Arnaud and Wilmer Flores were awful to start the year but have recently picked up. Should we believe in them, or wait to see if it’s a mirage?

Neil Weinberg: At least two years. Every single PA is relevant, but you need at least 500 PA or so to tell you anything, and that number increases when you’re talking about players who are new to the league and still learning. Don’t give up on anyone too early. You can lose confidence but don’t bail

Comment From John
What was your opinion of Stroman missing Caleb Joseph’s head? It looked like he was trying to hit him.

Neil Weinberg: Didn’t look good. My guess is that he was trying to intimidate him with no intention of actually hitting him. But that is reckless and dangerous. But, again, I don’t really know.

Comment From John
Im trying to make a GIF using iWisfot but it comes out as 60 different pictures, how do I fix this?

Neil Weinberg: That’s…weird? Probably need to change the output format. You want animated gif

Comment From Robert Mugabe
Whats wrong with Joe Mauer?

Neil Weinberg: This is basically 2011 again. He was excellent just last year. Some age, some health. Probably going to be good again next year.

Comment From Josh
Thanks for the gif help. Its working fine but what is a good fps rate?

Neil Weinberg: Capture at 30, playback at 10 is how I do it.

Comment From Ewald
how is the yearly positional adjustment for pitchers derived year to year? because those values seem to constantly change.

Neil Weinberg: Doesn’t look like it’s constantly changing? What do you mean?

Comment From Guest
Stroman has been suspended 6 games, one less than Papelbon. Do you see a problem with this?

Neil Weinberg: Yes. The league does not properly handle head hunting, fighting IMO. Papelbon deserved a suspension for that, but going after someone’s head should be 15 or 20 games I think.

Comment From Dave M
What is the logic behind the DH defensive adjustment? Why can’t a DH’s defense simply be N/A?

Neil Weinberg: It has to be something. Otherwise a .400 wOBA (600 PA) DH would be equal to a league average 2B .400 wOBA (600 PA) even though the 2B is way more valuable.

Comment From John
There is no way Stroman was going after his head, giving him 15 or 20 games would be insane

Neil Weinberg: I was speaking about head hunting in general. I don’t know if Stroman was in particular.

Comment From John
How do upload GIFs to intenet?

Neil Weinberg: You can use Twitter, or Gfycat. Or upload them to a website. Lots of options

Comment From JB
A few words about how awful Brad Ausmus is please.

Neil Weinberg: He is very bad. He doesn’t seem to know his player’s strengths, he doesn’t prepare well for game events, he relies on pitcher-batter matchup data, he refuses to adjust his bullpen roles…and on and on.

I am unhappy with his performance.

Neil Weinberg: But this is a family website and I try not to use rough language!

Comment From Ben
Doesn’t a DH’s -17.5 adjustment speak to how bad of a fielder he is relative to his peers? Theoretically, at least

Neil Weinberg: Exactly!

Comment From JB
Will Alex Gordon finish in the top 5 in MVP voting?

Neil Weinberg: Let’s see. Who will the voters favor ahead of him….

Neil Weinberg: I think right around 5th would be by guess of his location. I think I would say he could be as high as 2 and as low as 10 for me. Probably around 4-5?

Comment From John
I made a GIF! http://www.gfycat.com/Insis…

Neil Weinberg: I was very proud of my first one too. It was a big day at the Weinbergs when I learned this.

Comment From Guest
with a manager like Ausmus, do you think the front office needs to step in and “suggest” some things to him? obviously there is some learning but that team can’t waste a postseason on poor strategy. and the Tigers aren’t the only team like this.

Neil Weinberg: It’s tough to say. They should do this, but it’s also not clear how much of this they support. The Tigers are an extremely tight-lipped FO, so you never get a sense of how they feel about things. I would guess that they aren’t as unhappy with him as the fans are, but it also might be a case of Ausmus being allowed to use judgement within a given framework.

Neil Weinberg: It could also be the case that FO know that strategy is limited enough in impact that they don’t want to mess with the team midseason? Don’t know.

Comment From Robert Hombre
Who are your top 5 AL Central regression candidates for 2015 (individual players)?

Neil Weinberg: Altuve? Carter? Does Moss count? that’s not five…

Comment From Ben
Central, Neil!

Neil Weinberg: Oh dear.

Neil Weinberg: Um…

Neil Weinberg: JD Martinez.

Neil Weinberg: Brantley

Neil Weinberg: Wade Davis just because gravity.

Comment From John
How do I fix framerate?

Neil Weinberg: HyperCam, go to AVI File tab

Neil Weinberg: Alright, I have a couple more minutes. Fire off any quick hits you have

Comment From Seth Smith
Wilmer Flores is Tulo 2.0 right? Just with slightly worst defense.

Neil Weinberg: I wanted to have a funny reply to this, but I can’t think of one.

Comment From Ross
Can we expect any columns from you? I’d be interested in seeing you push the theories to their bounds in the abstract, at least. It could be cool!

Neil Weinberg: Every week! Did you know we have a blog in the library section? Probably not because it’s hidden. Which is something we will probably change

http://www.fangraphs.com/li…

Comment From hscer
I’d set up the chats 15 minutes in advance instead of 30, as most FG chats are. I closed the tab instead of leaving it open taking memory for 30 minutes, planning to come back–and forgot until now.

Neil Weinberg: Ah, yeah I’ve been starting them earlier because it’s a new one. But that’s a good idea now that they are gaining traction.

Comment From Seth Smith
Does odor get squeezed out of a starting spot in texas next year, with the return of profar?

Neil Weinberg: Probably for a little bit.

Comment From hscer
how exactly are IFFB’s handled in WAR. Treated like a strikeout?

Neil Weinberg: Yes.

Comment From Ewald
the positional adjustment for pitchers seems to be dependant on the pitcher batting runs. the better the pitchers hit the lower the positional adjustment and vice versa.

Neil Weinberg: I think it’s based on playing time, like it should be. I’m not seeing a correlation between performance and positional adjustment.

Comment From Dave M
If defense gets 7% of the WAR calculation, the -17 run DH adjustment seems kind of high. I mean the DH is still doing a lot of stuff.

Neil Weinberg: Why does it seem high? Have to remember there are only 15 DH spots and not 30, too.

Comment From hscer
I wonder how many fewer runs the Nationals would be expected to score over 162 games with today’s lineup–Taylor Espinosa Frandsen Moore Schierholtz Souza Kobernus Leon Treinen–compared to their optimum lineup

Neil Weinberg: Okay, hold on. Everyone stay here and give me a second to actually check this.

Neil Weinberg: Checking…

Neil Weinberg: Lol what? They are expected to score 2.13 runs per game.

Neil Weinberg: They have scored 4.29 runs per game this year

Neil Weinberg: I love post-clinching lineups. That is amazing.

Neil Weinberg: I mean, the 2.13 is an estimate, but still. That’s awesome.

Neil Weinberg: Alright, I should wrap up. But first…

Neil Weinberg: If all goes well, we should have overhauled WAR glossary entries within the next two weeks for hitters and pitchers!

Neil Weinberg: So now no one can say “how do you even calculated WAR?”

Neil Weinberg: Because I’m going to write many words and equations for you!

Neil Weinberg: So, prepare! Take care. Remember to find me on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44