NERD Game Scores for July 3, 2017
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.
How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.
Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at New York AL | 19:05 ET
Stroman (100.1 IP, 79 xFIP-) vs. Tanaka (90.2 IP, 88 xFIP-)
The major-league season has just passed its midpoint in terms of total games played, which is significant to the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm insofar as now team NERD scores are weighted slightly more heavily than pitcher scores in the calculation of the game scores one finds below. This also represents the point in the season at which a club’s postseason odds slightly outweigh other variables in the calculation of the team score. In either case, this Blue Jays-Yankees contest is the most promising of today’s games and everything remains meaningless.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.
Another Brief Note
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Baltimore at Milwaukee, starts at 14:10 ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.
Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and also sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and the rest of the internet. Note that calculations both for team and game NERD scores feature adjustment for postseason odds that increases as season progresses. Read more about those adjustments here and here.
| Away | SP | TM | GM | TM | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | BAL | 4 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 | MIL | Brent Suter* | 14:10 |
| Steven Matz | NYN | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 9 | WAS | Stephen Strasburg | 18:05 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 7 | PHI | Aaron Nola | 19:05 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 8 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 7 | NYA | Masahiro Tanaka | 19:05 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | STL | Adam Wainwright | 19:15 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | TEX | Martin Perez | 20:05 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | COL | Jeff Hoffman | 20:10 |
| Alex Meyer | LAA | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | MIN | Adalberto Mejia | 20:10 |
| Carlos Rodon* | CHA | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | OAK | Jharel Cotton | 21:05 |
| Ian Kennedy | KC | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | SEA | Andrew Moore* | 22:10 |
TM denotes team score.
GM denotes overall game score.
Highlighted portion denotes game of the day.
* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of doomed author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Are you using the linked fangraphs projection postseason odds or the coin flip postseason odds?
I claim coin flip is better for this sort of thing, as emotional reactions have little to do with projections. A Brewers fan this year is likely to consider his team to have an excellent shot (true in coin flip) rather than to think that the division lead means little.