NERD Game Scores for Thursday, September 18, 2014
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.
Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Pittsburgh | 19:05 ET
Brandon Workman (82.0 IP, 112 xFIP-, 0.7 WAR) faces Gerrit Cole (117.0 IP, 96 xFIP-, 1.2 WAR). While French theologian John Calvin — and any other number of determinists, religious or otherwise — would likely argue that the outcomes of the various playoff races have been decided already, the editors of FanGraphs are capable only of speaking in probabilities. So far as Pittsburgh’s probability of qualifying for the divisional series is concerned, “almost exactly 50%” is the best answer available to us at the moment. Of greater certainty — one bordering on 100%, in this case — is that Cuban emigre Rusney Castillo will make his second start for Boston tonight in center field.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio or Television.
Lone, Brief Note
Regarding Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Cleveland at Houston, starts at 8:10pm ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.
Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that the calculations both for team and game NERD scores have changed recently to better integrate playoff odds into same. Read more about those changes here, if you’re the sort of person accustomed to making poor life decisions.
| Away | SP | Tm. | Gm. | Tm. | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 7 | OAK | Sonny Gray | 15:35 |
| Bran. Workman | BOS | 5 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 10 | PIT | Gerrit Cole | 19:05 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 10 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 9 | NYA | Shane Greene | 19:05 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 8 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | MIA | Brad Hand | 19:10 |
| Zack Greinke | LAN | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | CHN | Tsuyoshi Wada | 20:05 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 10 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | HOU | Scott Feldman | 20:10 |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | STL | Shelby Miller | 20:15 |
| Vidal Nuno | AZ | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | COL | Yohan Flande | 20:40 |
| Kyle Kendrick | PHI | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9 | SD | Robbie Erlin | 21:10 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 10 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | LAA | Jered Weaver | 22:05 |
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Carson, I love the NERD scores but you have to put in a filter for divisional matchups. I can tell you that despite the fact that the math might get us to Pittsburgh-Boston, Seattle-Los Angeles is the more intriguing matchup (and king felix is starting).
That’s not unreasonable,and really my main argument against adding a divisional adjustment is that it’s difficult for some of my skill level.
I think, also, there’s maybe a gap between how likely the Mariners seem to be of qualifying for the divisional series and how likely the numbers suggest they are. Just a one-in-eight chance, according to nerd math.
Qualifying for the Division Series is not the number you should be looking at. You should look at how much today’s games affects their chances of qualifying.
The Pirates have near a 50% chance of qualifying for the Div. Series, but only because they are very likely to be the Wild Card. They have only a 16.2% chance of winning their division. So regular season games mean little to them and are not much worth watching in comparison to Seattle. The Wild Card game will be worth watching, but not their games now.
Seattle, by contrast, has a 25% chance or so of attaining the Wild Card. Whether they get the Wild Card slot will be determined based on their games now.
So I advise watching Seattle tonight and Pittsburgh in a couple week’s time, unless he manage to improve their odds of winning the division above 16%.
Makes sense to me. Plus who am I kidding the games are 3 hours apart, I’ll watch both!