NERD Game Scores for Wednesday, June 01, 2016
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.
Most Highly Rated Game
Tampa Bay at Kansas City | 20:15 ET
Archer (60.1 IP, 88 xFIP-) vs. Duffy (30.2 IP, 86 xFIP-)
Would you like to know what life is like? Here’s what it’s like. Over his first six starts, Chris Archer produced a 3.22 xFIP but 5.01 ERA. Which is to say, he allowed nearly two more runs per nine innings than one might generally expect given certain predictive indicators. Over his next five starts, however, Archer produced a 4.07 xFIP and 4.18 ERA. Which is to say, he pitched worse in terms of those indicators, but actually conceded fewer earned runs. Now ask yourself, “How’s anyone supposed to learn anything when they get better results with the worse process?” Now continue by answering yourself, “I don’t know, stop harassing me.” This! This is what life is like!
Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: Tampa Bay.
Two Other Brief Notes
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Detroit at Los Angeles AL, starts at 19:05 ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.
Broadcaster Rankings
Recently, the present author facilitated a crowdsourcing effort to reproduce the broadcaster rankings which appeared on this site roughly four years ago. The results from that effort — for television broadcasts, at least — are available by means of this hyperlinked text.
Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that calculations both for team and game NERD scores feature adjustment for postseason odds that increases as season progresses. Read more about those adjustments here and here.
| Away | SP | TM | GM | TM | SP | Home | Time | ||
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHA | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | NYN | Jacob deGrom | 13:10 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | MIL | Zach Davies | 13:40 |
| Pat Dean | MIN | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | OAK | Sean Manaea | 15:35 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 5 | CLE | Trevor Bauer | 18:10 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 5 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 4 | BAL | Mike Wright | 19:05 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 10 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 7 | LAA | Matt Shoemaker | 19:05 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 10 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 4 | PHI | Adam Morgan | 19:05 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYA | 7 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 9 | TOR | Aaron Sanchez | 19:07 |
| Jon Niese | PIT | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | MIA | Adam Conley | 19:10 |
| Albert Suarez* | SF | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | ATL | Williams Perez | 19:10 |
| Mike Bolsinger* | LAN | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 | CHN | Jon Lester | 20:05 |
| Robbie Ray | AZ | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | HOU | Mike Fiers | 20:10 |
| Chris Archer | TB | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 9 | KC | Danny Duffy | 20:15 |
| John Lamb | CIN | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | COL | Tyler Chatwood | 20:40 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 4 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 0 | SD | Christian Friedrich | 22:10 |
TM denotes team score.
GM denotes overall game score.
Highlighted portion denotes game of the day.
* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of clueless author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
How does deGrom go from a 7 SP rating in his last start, to a 6 now? I would think a start that brought up his K/9 and lowered his FIP and he had the highest average velocity of any start this season.
Mostly, I just find it hard to believe that anyone would think Matt Shoemaker or Pat Dean(?!) is better to watch than deGrom.
I don’t have a particularly strong defense of the numbers, because tastes naturally vary pretty wildly. Anyone who enjoys watching Jacob deGrom ought to continue doing that. Life is a nightmare and simple pleasures ought to be celebrated.
Here are two points I’d make, however:
1. Jacob deGrom hasn’t produced particularly strong fielding-independent numbers thus far (or, a particularly strong xFIP, at least). Not at the level of the last two years, certainly. He’s preventing runs in the same sort of way, but without the characteristically strong indicators underneath. Has he learned to manage contact particularly well? It’s possible! But there’s no way of knowing, and he’s not dominant in the way he has been.
2. Neither Dean nor Shoemaker have recorded many innings, so their scores are naturally more subject to change. They’ve both been pretty good, though. Shoemaker, notably, has been the best pitcher in baseball by almost every measure over his last two starts (which also represents more than 20% of his starts)! He’s produced a 33:0 K:BB in 15.2 innings. That’s basically like if Kenley Jansen were a starter.
Just a thought, and maybe you’ve already written about it and I’ve missed it or you’ve probably thought about it already do, but I find a pitcher to be much more watchable when he keeps the pitch count low. Quick and efficient (minus the time between pitchers).
You kind of show it in there with Pace, but that doesn’t really show how efficient a pitcher is. Maybe like a Pitches per IP combined with Pace? It’s one thing to have a guy who works quick, but another things to have a guy that works quick AND is efficient about it.