NERD Game Scores: Watch Felix Doubront for Some Reason
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.
Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Oakland | 22:05 ET
Doubront (14.0 IP, 77 xFIP-) vs. Gray (129.2 IP, 86 xFIP-)
While the author is unable to cite any such documents specifically, reason dictates that there are probably hundreds or even thousands of tirelessly researched and scrupulously peer-reviewed scientific papers all of which conclude that human decision-making is a largely arbitrary endeavor. Today, instead of continuing to ignore this difficult truth, the reader has an opportunity to embrace it — by watching Toronto left-hander Felix Doubront pitch for some reason. Doubront has produced two curious starts for the Blue Jays, conceding just a single walk against 52 batters while recording a 69.0% ground-ball rate — this, however, while also allowing eight runs over just 11.2 innings. A compelling blend of success and failure, that. As to whether it’s a reason for watching Doubront, however — let’s regard this concern as moot for the moment.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.
Two Brief Notes
Perpetually Looping Video: Joe Ross’s Slider
Yesterday, as part of Tuesday’s most highly rated game, Washington right-hander Joe Ross produced a 4:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio against 25 batters over 6.1 innings (box). Here’s footage of three of those strikeouts, all recorded by means of Ross’s slider.
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features San Francisco at San Diego, starts at 15:40 ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.
Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that the calculations both for team and game NERD scores have changed recently to better integrate playoff odds into same. Read more about those changes here, if you’re the sort of person accustomed to making poor life decisions.
| Away | SP | Tm. | Gm. | Tm. | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bolsinger | LAN | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 5 | ATL | Julio Teheran | 12:10 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHN | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 6 | CIN | Mike Leake | 12:35 |
| Dallas Beeler* | CHN | 5 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 6 | CIN | Tony Cingrani* | 18:10 |
| N. Syndergaard | NYN | 10 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | WAS | Jor. Zimmermann | 12:35 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TB | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | PHI | Adam Morgan | 13:05 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 5 | MIL | Kyle Lohse | 14:10 |
| Martin Perez* | TEX | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | COL | Jorge de la Rosa | 15:10 |
| Matt Cain | SF | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | SD | James Shields | 15:40 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 2 | NYA | Ivan Nova | 19:05 |
| M. Montgomery | SEA | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | DET | Anibal Sanchez | 19:08 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 6 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 5 | HOU | Collin McHugh | 20:10 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 5 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | KC | Edinson Volquez | 20:10 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | CHA | John Danks | 20:10 |
| Jose Fernandez | MIA | 10 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | AZ | Robbie Ray | 21:40 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 3 | LAA | C.J. Wilson | 22:05 |
| Felix Doubront | TOR | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 7 | OAK | Sonny Gray | 22:05 |
* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
I don’t think I understand what the NERD score actually measures. Just prior to the break 2 of the top 3 teams in baseball played 4 games and not one was highlighted by NERD. Now, once again, 2 of the top 3 teams in baseball played each other and not one game highlighted by NERD.
It seems to me that when two elite teams are playing each other, at least one of those games (likely more) ought to have the high score on the watchability meter. What am I missing here?
You are missing the link in the very first paragraph that explains what NERD measures: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nerd-scores-return-with-something-not-unlike-a-vengeance/
You mean the paragraph that states “NERD scores represent … the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability … of a player or team or game”? I have seen that paragraph and gone to the link that has the algorithm explained.
I suppose, given the evidence, that the algorithm must be broken or biased in some way (towards the starting pitcher). I understand why someone would want to watch, say, Jose Fernandez pitch even though it would require sitting through a Reds-Marlins game. I also get why Nationals – Mets would be compelling viewing. I’m less inclined to believe, however, that a properly functioning algorithm to predict the most watchable games on a given night would completely ignore a Cardinals-Pirates series, or the Monday Pirates-Royals matchup.
I don’t think rivalries or postseason implications are factored into the team NERD numbers. That sounds like it’d be a nice enhancement though.
You skipped the most crucial part:
(emphasis mine)
NERD is for baseball nerds — i.e. people who care more about the actual baseball being played than about the narrative surrounding it (standings etc.).
@MDL
playoff odds are factored in
Don’t you realize that the Astros were playing?
@a
That is an interesting posit. However wouldn’t it stand to reason that the teams with the best records would also, generally speaking, play the best baseball? Are baseball nerds not interested in watching the best teams play, but rather only interested in unique or odd scenarios?
Specifically, as a baseball nerd, perhaps you can explain the draw to watching Felix Doubront that he deserves a 9. Or what is it about the Blue Jays that a baseball nerd would find so appealing that a .500 team gets an 8? And why would that game be more interesting, to a baseball nerd, than Snydergaard and the Mets vs. the Nationals? Or another Jose Fernandez start? Or, as I mentioned in my original post, the 2nd and 3rd best teams in all of baseball playing each other?
thanks for changing your name, pirates hurdles
Not it, chalk it up to another Pirates fan. I have no issue stating my beliefs under my own banner.
BTW, Morton vs Volquez isn’t exactly prime time viewing. That said Ventura/AJ was pretty fun.