NERD Game Scores: Watch Felix Doubront for Some Reason

July 22, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Oakland | 22:05 ET
Doubront (14.0 IP, 77 xFIP-) vs. Gray (129.2 IP, 86 xFIP-)
While the author is unable to cite any such documents specifically, reason dictates that there are probably hundreds or even thousands of tirelessly researched and scrupulously peer-reviewed scientific papers all of which conclude that human decision-making is a largely arbitrary endeavor. Today, instead of continuing to ignore this difficult truth, the reader has an opportunity to embrace it — by watching Toronto left-hander Felix Doubront pitch for some reason. Doubront has produced two curious starts for the Blue Jays, conceding just a single walk against 52 batters while recording a 69.0% ground-ball rate — this, however, while also allowing eight runs over just 11.2 innings. A compelling blend of success and failure, that. As to whether it’s a reason for watching Doubront, however — let’s regard this concern as moot for the moment.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

Two Brief Notes
Perpetually Looping Video: Joe Ross’s Slider
Yesterday, as part of Tuesday’s most highly rated game, Washington right-hander Joe Ross produced a 4:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio against 25 batters over 6.1 innings (box). Here’s footage of three of those strikeouts, all recorded by means of Ross’s slider.

Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features San Francisco at San Diego, starts at 15:40 ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.

Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that the calculations both for team and game NERD scores have changed recently to better integrate playoff odds into same. Read more about those changes here, if you’re the sort of person accustomed to making poor life decisions.

Away		SP	Tm.	Gm.	Tm.	SP		Home	Time
Mike Bolsinger	LAN	5	5	4	2	5	ATL	Julio Teheran	12:10
Kyle Hendricks	CHN	7	7	6	4	6	CIN	Mike Leake	12:35
Dallas Beeler*	CHN	5	7	6	4	6	CIN	Tony Cingrani*	18:10
N. Syndergaard	NYN	10	5	6	5	6	WAS	Jor. Zimmermann	12:35
Jake Odorizzi	TB	6	4	3	2	2	PHI	Adam Morgan	13:05
Cody Anderson	CLE	6	7	5	3	5	MIL	Kyle Lohse	14:10
Martin Perez*	TEX	6	3	4	4	4	COL	Jorge de la Rosa	15:10
Matt Cain	SF	5	5	5	4	7	SD	James Shields	15:40
Kevin Gausman	BAL	7	6	6	7	2	NYA	Ivan Nova	19:05
M. Montgomery	SEA	5	4	5	5	5	DET	Anibal Sanchez	19:08
Joe Kelly	BOS	6	4	6	10	5	HOU	Collin McHugh	20:10
Charlie Morton	PIT	5	8	6	6	4	KC	Edinson Volquez	20:10
Lance Lynn	STL	5	5	4	1	4	CHA	John Danks	20:10
Jose Fernandez	MIA	10	5	6	5	6	AZ	Robbie Ray	21:40
Mike Pelfrey	MIN	2	4	4	7	3	LAA	C.J. Wilson	22:05
Felix Doubront	TOR	9	8	7	5	7	OAK	Sonny Gray	22:05

* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.

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NotGettingIt

8 years ago

I don’t think I understand what the NERD score actually measures. Just prior to the break 2 of the top 3 teams in baseball played 4 games and not one was highlighted by NERD. Now, once again, 2 of the top 3 teams in baseball played each other and not one game highlighted by NERD.

It seems to me that when two elite teams are playing each other, at least one of those games (likely more) ought to have the high score on the watchability meter. What am I missing here?

-1

GettingIt

Reply to NotGettingIt

You are missing the link in the very first paragraph that explains what NERD measures: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nerd-scores-return-with-something-not-unlike-a-vengeance/

StillNotGettingIt

Reply to GettingIt

You mean the paragraph that states “NERD scores represent … the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability … of a player or team or game”? I have seen that paragraph and gone to the link that has the algorithm explained.

I suppose, given the evidence, that the algorithm must be broken or biased in some way (towards the starting pitcher). I understand why someone would want to watch, say, Jose Fernandez pitch even though it would require sitting through a Reds-Marlins game. I also get why Nationals – Mets would be compelling viewing. I’m less inclined to believe, however, that a properly functioning algorithm to predict the most watchable games on a given night would completely ignore a Cardinals-Pirates series, or the Monday Pirates-Royals matchup.

MDLmember

Reply to StillNotGettingIt

I don’t think rivalries or postseason implications are factored into the team NERD numbers. That sounds like it’d be a nice enhancement though.

You skipped the most crucial part:

the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan , of a player or team or game

(emphasis mine)

NERD is for baseball nerds — i.e. people who care more about the actual baseball being played than about the narrative surrounding it (standings etc.).

@MDL

playoff odds are factored in

sepia officinalis

Don’t you realize that the Astros were playing?

That is an interesting posit. However wouldn’t it stand to reason that the teams with the best records would also, generally speaking, play the best baseball? Are baseball nerds not interested in watching the best teams play, but rather only interested in unique or odd scenarios?

Specifically, as a baseball nerd, perhaps you can explain the draw to watching Felix Doubront that he deserves a 9. Or what is it about the Blue Jays that a baseball nerd would find so appealing that a .500 team gets an 8? And why would that game be more interesting, to a baseball nerd, than Snydergaard and the Mets vs. the Nationals? Or another Jose Fernandez start? Or, as I mentioned in my original post, the 2nd and 3rd best teams in all of baseball playing each other?

doug

thanks for changing your name, pirates hurdles

Pirates Hurdles

Reply to doug

Not it, chalk it up to another Pirates fan. I have no issue stating my beliefs under my own banner.

BTW, Morton vs Volquez isn’t exactly prime time viewing. That said Ventura/AJ was pretty fun.