Nicholas Minnix Baseball Chat – 7/18/14

July 18, 2014

8:47	Nicholas Minnix: Hello, everybody! I’ll be with you at the top of the hour, as always. I have been going to about an hour and a half for these, but today I won’t go much beyond the requisite hour, visiting family, hope you understand. Looking forward to hearing what you have to say and ask!

8:57	Nicholas Minnix: And, my sincere apologies: I changed the start time of my event initially … but not the time zone! So now we’re all set.

8:59	Comment From Zach Among the teams who are in the hunt for a RP which would not have Soria as a closer?

8:59	Nicholas Minnix: Gonna go ahead and get started. … I’d say LAD definitely. Initially, I’m going to believe that Detroit wouldn’t, either. Will depend on Nathan’s performance after a would-be deal, I expect, tho.

8:59	Comment From Jeff I just traded Evan Longoria and a 5th rounder for Carlos Santana and Michael Brantley in my 5-keeper Keeper League. Good deal?

9:01	Nicholas Minnix: Um, yes? Really, it’s hard to say. Longoria or Santana is best player in the deal? I think this is a career year for Brantley, easily, and there is no more upside. Maybe Santana is close to Longo, he’s younger, so that’s good.

9:01	Comment From sleeper & the best! I’m very interested in Joc Pederson’s potential arrival. Defensively, the Dodgers have to do it right? There’s gotta be a Kemp taker, right?

9:01	Nicholas Minnix: Sorry, don’t see it this year, except as a bench player in September.

9:02

Comment From (not that) James
Over this scoring period (July 18-27), I’m allowed 7 starts in my points league. Chris Sale’s two starts are a given, so out of these remaining starts, which five would you pick? Richards v. SEA (Fernandez) and DET (Scherzer), Arrieta @ ARI (Collmener) and v. STL. (Lynn), Wood v. PHI or MIA (not clear) and v. SD (not clear), and Kennedy v. NYM (Colon) and @ ChC (Jackson).

My initial thoughts are Richards v. SEA, Arrieta @ ARI and v. STL, Wood v. SD, and Kennedy @ ChC.

9:03	Nicholas Minnix: Arrieta wouldn’t sit for me, Richards hard to as well, but vs. DET you might. Tought calls otherwise, I’d like Kennedy vs. both opponents off the top of my head, esp. vs. CHC.

9:03	Comment From Jolly Roger Would you drop Leonys Martin for any of the following (assuming they’re healthy) in a 5X5 dynasty 12-teamer: Pollock, James Jones, Kevin Keirmaier, Jennings?

9:04	Nicholas Minnix: Man … Jennings baffles. I’d rather own Jennings in a dynasty league, though. I like Martin about as much as or more than the others, though.

9:04	Comment From Guest Nick what are your thoughts on Matt Adams ROS? His peripherals scare me outside of his LD% and his supressed HR/FB%. He’s like jumbo Adam Jones this year.

9:04	Nicholas Minnix: I like him. Like him like him like him. Liked him coming in, so I have to stick with that. I suppose you’re worried about BA regression — probably some, but will come with more power, so, live with it.

9:05	Comment From Santiago wOBA treats infield singles different than any other single? If not, why is that? Thanks

9:07	Nicholas Minnix: I believe it does not. As for why, I do not know. It’s a good question and one I think you should ask Neil Weinberg here when you have the opportunity!

9:07	Comment From Matt Damon MATT. DAMON.

9:07	Comment From Brad Are you in Delaware? If so, thanks for bringing the great weather. 495 closed btw. Keeper trade opinion. Would you trade cron and gausman for Donaldson? Thanks.

9:07	Nicholas Minnix: Haha, no, not this time. I’m in Virginia!

9:09

Nicholas Minnix: Thanks for the travel tip tho. Oooh. Hmmm. It depends, if it’s a limited keeper, say only for a couple of years, then I would, because I love Donaldson and he’s a 3B. If it’s a long-term thing more so, probably not. Gausman doesn’t do much for either of it, to me. If it’s an AL league, I’d probably stick with Cron, especially long term. Not elite, but solid bat.

9:09	Comment From Jack Hammer What are your thoughts on Matt Shoemaker as a fantasy SP? Thanks.

9:09	Nicholas Minnix: I like him. I don’t have any shares. Eno has convinced me that there’s a lot to like and speculate on. However, he’s a matchup play in 15-team mixed leagues until we get more reliable data on him.

9:09	Comment From Snuffy Why do you think the Cubs are moving Baez to 2B when Alcantara is holding his own in the bigs? Making room for Russell at AAA, or does Alcantara move to the OF eventually? Thanks for your insight.

9:10	Nicholas Minnix: Sounds as if it’s more to accommodate Russell than to do with Alcantara. It’s easy to move Baez because he’s unlikely to stick at SS, regardless of where they go at SS.

9:10	Comment From Shawn Looking into stashing Ken Giles but is there any team out there that would realistically trade for Papelbon?

9:11	Nicholas Minnix: Rumor is LAD is really interested. I just don’t see him getting moved. LAD are crazy, who knows. But I don’t see him getting moved. I could be wrong, no doubt.

9:11	Comment From Krusty Our 20+ yr keeper league is strongly considering moving to Fantrax, which I found after I read your category preferences piece. You have clout!

9:12	Nicholas Minnix: LOL, awesome. I do like the site quite a bit. I think it’s a hidden gem of fantasy league hosts.

9:12	Nicholas Minnix: I have heard of others who have had issues. I won’t hide that. I have been happy. I do not speak for FG or anyone else here, FYI.

9:13	Comment From Zach If Soria does go to one of those teams, is the following the correct rank of speculative closers (need saves): Feliz (Frasor was traded), Ramirez, Benoit, Balfour, Giles?

9:14	Nicholas Minnix: I think that’s fair.

9:14	Comment From Trade Bait Did Drew Pomeranz show enough this season (along with his pedigree) to hold onto him (12-team dynasty) in the hopes that he reclaims a rotation spot next season? Thanks for your advice.

9:14	Nicholas Minnix: It depends on how deep your bench is — very deep, why not. Any other depth, no point, because he should be cheap again next year.

9:14	Comment From Brett Gardner How do you view Ellsbury moving forward? Still t10 OF? Hasn’t really seen any of the hoped-for Yankee Stadium bump.

9:16

Nicholas Minnix: I’m a bit disappointed. I think he’s a safe t25 OF, it’s hard to say because of what you cited. I think t10 is still easily within the sights. But in the 3rd spot, he hasn’t run quite as often – still should net 35-40 SBs, hope he adds RBI to make up for it. Maybe HR, would be nice.

9:16	Comment From cbird In my dynasty league i just shipped JD Martinez for Mookie Betts. My OF consists of Harper/Yelich/Cespedes and my ss is Segura. Did I do ok?

9:17	Nicholas Minnix: Yes, I think it’s a fair attempt to stock up. Martinez may have shelf life next year, but it’s a good play. I like your future outlook I think.

9:17	Comment From BJ Mufferaw Trading gausman for trumbo/Quintana in a dynasty is a no brainier, right?

9:17	Nicholas Minnix: I’d say. I’d trade Gausman for Quintana straight up.

9:17	Comment From Brian The O’s are OPS’ing .775 on the road. Should I start Samardzija against them at O.co?

9:17	Nicholas Minnix: Yes. I don’t bench Samardzija. At home is sweet.

9:18	Comment From sleeper & the best! Would you start Verlander @Ari or a two-start Wheeler @AD, @Mil? Points league.

9:19	Nicholas Minnix: Phew, I’m gonna say Wheeler. Wheeler has for whatever reason not walked nearly as many on the road. Verlander not quite ironed out yet.

9:19	Comment From Shawn ROS please rank- Ventura, Gausman, Odorizzi, Wheeler, DeGrom?

9:19	Nicholas Minnix: Ventura, … oooh, tough … I like Wheeler, so I will be biased, then DeGrom, Odorizzi, Gausman.

9:20	Comment From Guest Papelbon for Kemp – who hangs up first, LAD or PHI?

9:20	Nicholas Minnix: LOL … Actually, they might listen then, haha.

9:20	Comment From chris Could you please rank de Grom, Duffy, Stroman, Gausman, Hutchison, Odorizzi and Hahn ROS for roto? I know it’s a tall order but with Minor and Shields going in the tank I need some SP help. Thanks Nicholas!

9:21	Nicholas Minnix: Stroman, DeGrom, Hahn, Duffy, Odorizzi, Hutchison, Gausman.

9:21	Comment From Guest Zimmerman/Lohse or Pearce/Samardzija?

9:22	Nicholas Minnix: Ryan Z, right? I’d go with the former side, vacuum.

9:22	Comment From (not that) James Will Evan Longoria continue to be my fantasy LVP in the second half? Both projections set his ROS ISO well below his career average. Wondering if I should try to sell based on name value.

9:22	Nicholas Minnix: Man, he’s a disappointment. It depends … but I would be willing to shop his name, yes.

9:23	Nicholas Minnix: Depends on what you can get!

9:23	Comment From Frank J. Any news on Cashner’s timetable, and would you pick him up in a monthly draft at the beginning of August to replace one of the following: Smyly, Shelby Miller, Pomeranz, Gausman, Salazar? Dynasty leage and I’m starting to build for next year. Thank a lot!

9:24	Nicholas Minnix: No update I’ve seen, wasn’t expected to be much more than the min. initially. No surprise that it’s not. Miller, Pomeranz I’d definitely consider. Pom just because no job is 1st.

9:24	Comment From BillaBong Who ends up being the best contributor ROS: ECab, B. Lawrie, or Bonnifacio? Deep 5×5

9:25	Nicholas Minnix: Argh … I wish I could say with confidence. ECab, because he’s healthy right now and will play no doubts.

9:25

Comment From Nolan
Just took over a dynasty league team that’s in dead last in almost every category – just wasn’t maintained by the previous owner and has lots of prospect talent. What’s the best way to trade prospects in a league like this and what should I be reaching for in terms of trading guys like Baez, Gary Sanchez, Matt Davidson, etc?

9:28

Nicholas Minnix: If you’re in dead last, you want prospects, to some degree, haha. It’s difficult to answer, but if I deal Baez, killer upside, I want a surefire everyday fantasy player. Sanchez, maybe similar. Davidson, he’s more of a fringe hopeful, IMO, if you get something useful for him. But in your state, I might just hold him. It really depends on what you can get, not what you expect to get. Make offers or put them on the block.

9:28	Comment From VU Commodores Dynasty League. My Andrew McCutchen and Dellin Betances for Polanco, Machado, Profar and Appel. my only good infielder is Rendon. Should I take it?

9:30

Nicholas Minnix: How long dynasty? McCutchen is the best player there for the next couple of years, at least. If you keep so many that you have no doubts that you’d keep the 3 hitters every year for a few, and you’re in sell mode, then I can’t argue against it. Cutch might be the best player ever in that deal too, tho. … Hard for anyone to top him. Good gets, all, tho, what you are getting.

9:30	Comment From Kevin Where would you rank David Dahl among OF prospects? Or which tier if that’s more doable on the fly in a chat. Thanks.

9:33	Nicholas Minnix: How about this? I think based on my very limited knowledge of him that he’s very raw. He’s so far away, I discount that more than others, let’s say a 3rd-tier type? Upside is great, not immense but great.

9:33	Nicholas Minnix: I’m at 9:03 stamp, all.

9:33	Comment From chris Start Shields tonight in Boston? He’s been better lately but he has a bad history in Fenway.

9:34	Nicholas Minnix: This isn’t an easy call. Vacuum, I would. Shallow league, maybe you reconsider, OK. But I normally start my guys like him, regardless. No desire to kick myself later. He’s been better, BOS has a bad offense lately. I’d risk it.

9:34	Comment From alex What do you think happens to the Boston’s OF when Victorino comes back? Who gets put back down to minors? Cut drew move Mookie to SS?

9:35	Nicholas Minnix: They won’t cut Drew, I don’t think. I suspect Nava. They hope to trade Gomes, I believe, so whatever it is may not be for long.

9:35	Comment From Jason Collettes Dogs How good do you expect Arrieta to be ROS? I know we’re supposed to trust the projections, but a 4.01 ERA the rest of the way seems high. Can we reasonably expect a 3.50/1.20 with a K per inning?

9:36	Nicholas Minnix: The projections don’t give him credit for advances in his arsenal. I think he will beat his projections, and your #s sound likelier than ZiPS/Steamer.

9:36	Comment From stonepie think austin jackson stays in the leadoff spot? him or duda ROS?

9:36	Nicholas Minnix: I’d like to see that. I think Kinsler is a more suitable 2-hole hitter.

9:37	Nicholas Minnix: And, yes, I think so, but it’s anyone’s guess.

9:37	Comment From Matt Which starters do you think will have a low ERA and WHIP in the second half?

9:37	Nicholas Minnix: Um … Clayton Kershaw.

9:38	Nicholas Minnix: I guess you want some corrections or something … I think Zimmermann will be even better than he’s been. I like Cobb to rebound, a lot. What a wide open ?.

9:38	Comment From Don Which somewhat disappointing 24 year old do you prefer for dynasty pts league, Heyward or Hosmer (either would be my DH)?

9:38	Nicholas Minnix: Heyward

9:38	Nicholas Minnix: Just more upside, esp. at his position

9:38	Comment From PieTraynee Is Russell Martin a top five catcher in baseball by real life value?

9:40

Nicholas Minnix: This is a guess, I don’t have all the data on-hand, but I’d have to say so. Pitch-framing and defensively he’s top-notch, last time I saw the #s, and that’s his long-time reputation. He puts in such extensive work to prepare with his staff. His bat is maybe average to a little above for the position if he keeps up the BA (not likely), but some of what he does there is just a bonus.

9:40	Comment From sleeper & the best! Are there any similarities with what JD Martinez has done to his swing/plate discipline, and what Edwin Encarnacion did?

9:43

Nicholas Minnix: I cannot say for sure off-hand. I’d speculate not in terms of discipline, because nothing in the numbers suggests it to me, and in terms of that, hitters rarely change much. Martinez, a lot of his changes were made to his swing, the entire process, overhauled. So there might be, there. I haven’t compared them.

9:43	Comment From Patrick Thanks for taking my Q. What is the most likely scenario for Piscotty to see significant playing time in St. Louis next year?

9:45	Nicholas Minnix: Allen Craig becomes expendable to STL, or they think of him as a bench bat/platoon player. Or they trade Matt Adams. I’m not sure. I think he’s just likelier to be a yoyo initially, or platoon player, f/t role possible by 2016. Guessing.

9:45	Comment From chris Can Gillaspie and Coghlan keep this up? They’ve been pretty useful to slot into 3B with Donaldson not hitting.

9:46	Nicholas Minnix: To some extent, sure. Gillaspie will slow down. Coghlan’s #s could be projected forward, minus about 25 pts in BA and a good bit of the power. I like the ROS projections for both, fairly.

9:46	Nicholas Minnix: Nothing special

9:47	Comment From Janak Hey nick- please rank ROS. Arrieta, keuchel, odorizzi, Bauer, walker, stroman. Thanks!

9:47	Nicholas Minnix: Arrieta, Stroman, Bauer, Keuchel (altho health is a big determinant here), Odorizzi, Walker (scared his opportunity won’t come soon)

9:48	Comment From Adam What do you think winds up happening with the Angels’ bullpen? Will they stick with Smith, or do the Huston Street rumors have legs?

9:48	Nicholas Minnix: I think they trade for someone, but who IDK. Soria is a possibility, I think. In that case, Soria takes over. I think LAA want to trade for a Smith replacement if they can, yes.

9:49	Nicholas Minnix: I wouldn’t rule out Jason Grilli there, tho. They seem to have made progress with him. I think Smith isn’t closer ROS regardless, but it may take some time before he isn’t.

9:50	Comment From BillaBong Thoughts on C. Davis? His LD% and babip suggest he should be well above where he currently sits. 2nd half buy low??

9:50	Nicholas Minnix: Yes.

9:50	Comment From JC Suddenly find myself with three technically minor league pitchers in a mixed 14 team H2H redraft: Walker, Salazar, and Gausman. Will any of them fail to reward my perseverence?

9:51	Nicholas Minnix: Yes, probably, sadly. You listen to me too much, perhaps. Sorry. 🙁 Really, all of them are gambles in your format. I’m most optimistic about Salazar, but I’d feel most comfortable owning Walker, if that makes sense.

9:51	Comment From Jeff 10 team mixed league. Chasing wins, ERA and WHIP. i have quintana, gausman,ventura,porcello, bucholz and alex wood. would you drop any of them for Cashner or Cole, Kuroda, walker or skaggs?for Stout lovers Hinterland Luna Coffee Stout.

9:51	Nicholas Minnix: Yes, for Cashner or Cole, drop Gausman.

9:52	Nicholas Minnix: Whichever is back sooner, altho Cole I’m more confident will remain healthy. Coin toss.

9:53	Comment From Mick Ninnix Do you see anything in Desmond Jennings’ peripherals to suggest he’s better than his current numbers, or still has some untapped upside? Thanks.

9:54	Nicholas Minnix: In his #s, no. In his previous performances, definitely. He may end up being a tease, surely possible. He’s 28 after this season, it’s closing in on that. Not a bust, just disappointing. I think some of it’s mental, just my opinion. He’s not very aggressive, either.

9:55	Comment From Joseph Should I drop rondon or Ramirez?

9:55	Nicholas Minnix: For something better, sure, otherwise, don’t know why you would.

9:55	Comment From Patrick Anibal for Ross and j smith?

9:55	Nicholas Minnix: Latter, I suppose, unless you’re chasing wins and want to play that game. Worth a few more K’s, some SV for a while. … Vacuum.

9:56	Comment From Gets by Buckner where do you see Murphy ending up? Colon?

9:57	Nicholas Minnix: Murphy, geez, only place that makes sense IMO is SF. Colon … I’m going out on a limb and saying TOR. Which I wouldn’t like, haha.