Nicholas Minnix Baseball Chat – 9/22/14
| 11:34 |
: Hello, everybody! A surprise chat today. I’ll be with you at the top of the hour, look forward to answering some questions.
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| 2:57 |
I was 80 games over .500 in my league in 1st place. I got crushed 9-1 in the first round (after a bye) to a team that was 3 games over. Why do I still play H2H? |
| 2:58 |
: I have no idea!
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| 2:58 |
Championship in weekly points league. Degrom has been my ace lately but I’m concerned collins shuts him down after rosters lock. Go with degrom or 2 start peavy against sd and la. Thanks. |
| 2:59 |
: Wouldn’t risk it. Go with Peavy.
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| 2:59 |
Nats rotation – Roark or Gio? |
| 2:59 |
: This week? I default to Roark.
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| 2:59 |
Any insights on John Coppolella? Hearing he’s the frontrunner for the Braves’ GM job |
| 3:00 |
: No great insight, but from what I’ve read about him, and from what I’ve read that he’s written awhile back, he seems like a sound choice, a strong understanding of the importance of all information.
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| 3:00 |
Given Pirates past offseason misses on FA targets, any reason for Huntington et al not to dip a little deeper into pocket for Russ Martin? What’s his FA ceiling, assuming it comes with a QO attached? |
| 3:01 |
: I think they shouldn’t leave it to question. The C’s on the market this winter after Martin don’t come close to fitting the bill of what they need. They’ll skip the QO and go straight to an offer that keeps both sides happy, I hope/expect.
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| 3:01 |
On a scale where Chief Wahoo is 100% racist, how racist is the Tomahawk Chop? Dan Szymborski said 88% and Eno Sarris said 70%. |
| 3:03 |
: Uhhh … I’ll say 89.8%, I like to top. It’s all ambiguous and sort of offensive. It depends on who’s offended. These issues are far beyond black and white, even if they’re mostly one or the other, I tire of the “rhetoric” I should say. It’s nonsense, often.
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| 3:04 |
Championship in H2H points league with 10 SP max. How do you feel about starting both Ventura and Salazar tomorrow as they face one another? Think I should drop Salazar and start Niese vs HOU later this week? |
| 3:04 |
: Wouldn’t bother me. Start your best.
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| 3:04 |
i have a buddy who was saying he believes the worst hitter should be hidden in the 6 spot, due to the way it works out with outs and such. all i could say was data shows lineup construction isnt that important. anything to help me out? |
| 3:06 |
: I think the returns on such a thing are so mihimal, kind of as you believe, that it’s not worth arguing about, and more so, I think it’s silly to make a statistical decision when the pieces to every team’s lineup are different and therefore the outcomes can’t be definitively favorable based on such analysis every time.
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| 3:06 |
If Frank Wren is getting fired, and it seems as though popular opinion is he deserved it, why not Jocketty? What exactly is the difference between them and their “accomplishments”? |
| 3:06 |
: If I had the answer to that, sir, then I’d own a planet.
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| 3:07 |
Hi! I’m in a league that allows for three keepers, and I’m fortunate to have a few options. We use OBP and SLG instead of AVG and RBIs. Who would you keep from Jose Bautista, Jose Altuve, Anthony Rizzo, Andrew McCutchen, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber? I’ll have to try and find people to trade away the other players to. Many thanks! |
| 3:08 |
: I think if you don’t have to make that choice now, then don’t worry about it or think about it. I’d try to trade Altuve definitely and Kluber probably and Bautista probably. Rizzo, McCutchen and Kershaw are no-brainers. But things happen in the winter.
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| 3:08 |
Mainly for ratios, which outings would you start/bench, assuming they make said starts? Dickey SEA/BAL — Gray LAA/@TEX, Paxton @TOR/LAA |
| 3:11 |
: This is tough. If it’s just one, Paxton, actually, I like him, and he’s pitching the best of them right now. It’s a gamble. Next I’d go … I have a hard time trusting Gray right now, velo dip, Dickey I think.
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| 3:11 |
hi nick |
| 3:11 |
: Hello!
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| 3:11 |
oh okay this time it’s foreal |
| 3:11 |
: It appears so.
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| 3:12 |
What the bleep happened to jean segura this season and what should we expect from him next season? |
| 3:13 |
: Eno and I discussed on a recent pod, which ended up as a blog, this past Thursday. You can get a touch more there. Basically I think .260ish, 25-30 SB, are realistic next year. I think people vastly overrated him this year based on true talent plus how hard it is actually to play in MLB.
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| 3:14 |
any thoughts on ender inciarte? will he have a starting job next season? |
| 3:16 |
: He’s avoided the look of potential platoon issues, so that’s a big positive. I fear for his sake that he’ll be cast as a platoon player, though, at least in the short term, and that’s a bit damaging, potentially. I like Peralta, his problem is obviously in platoon, however. I still like Peralta as a starter, more upside vs. RHPs, and that leave Inciarte as a 4th OF next season, barring changes in ARI.
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| 3:16 |
peavy or samar |
| 3:16 |
: Samardzija, I think, roll the dice.
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| 3:16 |
Do you think Pearce stays in Baltimore? |
| 3:18 |
: Goodness, haha, interesting question. He’s final year arb this winter, so, assuming he’s not ridic cost, probably so.
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| 3:19 |
: And he surely can’t cost too much.
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| 3:19 |
real baseball q: Nats have a problem at 2nd going into next season…MOOKIE BETTS? or anyone else out there a good fit. |
| 3:20 |
: Betts would seem like a good fit, would help with on-base at leadoff spot, if they don’t pick up Span’s option. But surely they’ll do that, I’d guess. Zobrist, Stephen Drew, otherwise?
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| 3:21 |
does jon lester repeat his 2014 performance in 2015 or was this season an outlier? |
| 3:22 |
: Not repeat, but he’s discovered a new level. I’d expect a little natural regression but be closer to this year than last year, which was also good. Something between the two — easy answer.
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| 3:22 |
What is worse, Clint Hurdle’s tactital decision making, or his bum hip? |
| 3:23 |
: Haha, I’ll go with the hip. But he has some things to learn, I’m sure, he’s at least displayed a willingness to learn from past mistakes.
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| 3:23 |
Let’s presume through the magic of the Internet that Jayson Werth is a FA after this season and wants three years at $63m, exactly what he will get from the Nationals. Does anybody offer him that contract? |
| 3:23 |
: No.
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| 3:23 |
20 team rotisserie league and im up 3.5 points going into this week. Is my lead safe? |
| 3:23 |
: No. Keep playing.
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| 3:23 |
Thanks for the feedback! (Don’t worry about posting this message.) |
| 3:23 |
: Too late!
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| 3:23 |
is ellsbury done for the year? |
| 3:24 |
: I wouldn’t expect him to play again. He might, but there’s really no point for the Yanks to do that. Girardi’s words are more telling than Ells’.
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| 3:24 |
whats wrong with sonny gray recently? |
| 3:25 |
: Velo is down a tad, think fatigue is factoring in at a time when A’s can’t really afford to give him a break. Think if they make the postseason, he’d be good to go.
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| 3:25 |
I just discovered on the side of the home page where writers are listed i can go all teh way back to 2005. these artciles are entertaining. jeff kent and mike lowell were still playing.. |
| 3:25 |
: !
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| 3:26 |
piggybacking the archives thing- sky kalkman? who? |
| 3:26 |
: I couldn’t tell you, haha.
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| 3:26 |
300 dollar cap, got segura next season at 8 dollars with unlimited keepers. do I keep him, try to deal him, or cut him? |
| 3:28 |
: At that price, I think he’s still a keeper to consider. Not for sure, but to consider. Unlikely to trade and get what you’d have wanted. I’d throw him back if I thought I could get him for less. But that seems like a fair price for his upside, given that cap. If you don’t like him, tho, then deal him.
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| 3:28 |
love you and eno by the way, you guys have been a huge help all season. thanks again |
| 3:28 |
: We try! Thanks!
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| 3:29 |
I’m in a 14-team keeper league finishing up its 7th season and I pretty much am guaranteed to win this year at this point. Over time, I have acquired as my three keepers Kershaw, Trout and Stanton. Given the results of this year, the league is polling whether we should make a clean slate and start over. I vote “no” of course, but is it a good idea to start over every few years? |
| 3:30 |
: Wow. Kudos, well done! No, it’s not, IMO, but it’s good to examine the rules regularly. If it’s keep forever and you keep only 3 guys with no penalty (draft pick/salaries, limit on years), then your league is set up to allow dominance like yours, assuming you fill in around those pieces well. So, revision … is in your league’s future, perhaps.
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| 3:31 |
Thanks for the chat Nick. I’m in a 20 team dynasty league in the mold of TDGX. I can keep everyone on my team. Should I throw back Maybin,Quentin,Beckett, and EJax? My starting pitching is Cole,Cobb,Cue to,Kluber,Odorizzi,Holland and McHugh. I have Corbin,Amderson and Bailey on the way back. If May in was the speedster I expected, I would have won the league. |
| 3:31 |
: I think you can safely throw those players back, they won’t cost much, or any more than they did this season, should be less. Sorry about Maybin!
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| 3:31 |
Got any sleeper OF for next year? |
| 3:33 |
: 15-team mixed, I do like David Peralta, think he’s for real (but a platoon player). Juan Lagares to be a potential 25-SB guy.
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| 3:33 |
Should the Braves trade Gattis to an AL team and stay with youngster Betancourt, or keep him another year or two? |
| 3:35 |
: I think they can afford a transition year with Gattis, but it’s getting to that time. 2016 should be Bethancourt’s. Gattis isn’t even up for arb this winter, so he’s too cheap not to transition one year, I think, and the Braves may have bigger concerns.
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| 3:35 |
do you expect gillaspie to have a starting role next season? |
| 3:35 |
: I think the ChiSox will give other players every chance to take it from him in 2015. In 2014, it was the opposite, someone had to give them a reason.
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| 3:36 |
do you like big hugs or little hugs? |
| 3:36 |
: Big, almost always big. Little if the other hugger is self-conscious or otherwise uncomfortable.
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| 3:36 |
I mean…I mean…I mean… |
| 3:36 |
: Yep.
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| 3:36 |
Do you buy Gerrit Cole as a fantasy #1 for next season? The stuff is insane and some of the best in baseball, but he seems to have either command problems or sequencing issues |
| 3:37 |
: Not quite. Too many good ones to buy that yet. But I think this year will put him closer to that than people realize.
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| 3:37 |
 Thanks, Frank Wren!
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| 3:37 |
: Yeah, and take that.
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| 3:38 |
21 pitchers have an ERA under 3.00 this season. Is that a modern record? There is normally just a couple. #22 is Edison Volquez who has quietly been blowing by his peripherals. Thoughts? |
| 3:39 |
: I doubt that it’s a modern record. Definitely not, just looked. Some hitters are bad. I came across this article I intend to read: http://www.theatlantic.com/…
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| 3:40 |
: I don’t agree with it entirely, but I’m sure it makes a good point or two.
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| 3:40 |
is storen closer next year? |
| 3:40 |
: It seems inevitable, likely. They won’t pick up Soriano’s option.
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| 3:40 |
whose the SD closer next yr? |
| 3:41 |
: Benoit.
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| 3:41 |
Nats questions/Mookie – No they resign span- Span is amazing..let Laroche walk/Zim to 1st, Betts at 2nd. What sort of prospect would they have to give Boston for Betts? |
| 3:43 |
: Span’s is an option, so he’ll surely be back. I wouldn’t expect a repeat, though. I think it’d take one of those top two pitching prospects to get Betts, I’m not sure Washington has anything else that would tempt Boston.
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| 3:43 |
is this the real chris carter this season? seems like his numbers have been ascending for the last two seasons and im starting to believe |
| 3:43 |
: Yes, believe so, but the swing and miss will always put him at huge risk. I like, more than not. Not by a ton, though, it’s scary.
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| 3:44 |
My team’s a little dinged up heading into Championship Week (Ellsbury, Pagan). Do I roll with Granderson or Nava for my 3rd OF spot? Also, D. Norris or W. Ramos behind the dish? I have thoughts on what I want to do but am looking for some reassurance (and hopefully not torpedoing my chances by over thinking this!). |
| 3:45 |
: Reflex: Nava, Ramos. Granderson I’m not sure, is he hitting, then there’s more upside, perhaps you roll the dice, he gets 4 RHPs this week at least.
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| 3:45 |
And thanks for the chat! I forgot to add that to the end of my question. |
| 3:45 |
: Thanks!
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| 3:45 |
Are you surprised we haven’t seen Lindor getting a cup of coffee? He is the starter opening day for Cleveland, right? |
| 3:46 |
: No, and no. They wait until the summer, I expect. I think given Jose Ramirez’s play, they can afford to try to hone Lindor’s bat, which needs work. Not his primary tool, of course, but won’t hurt.
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| 3:47 |
Who would you start as pitcher in the late night 10pm games |
| 3:47 |
: Samardzija? Is that a choice? Haren. …
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| 3:47 |
do you expect dallas keuchal to be THIS dallas keuchal next season? |
| 3:48 |
: Yes, mostly. He has consistent stuff, I think this is a true talent breakout. Repeats are difficult, I’ll just say another solid year.
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| 3:48 |
is CJ Wilson’s regression this year something to be concerned about next season or do believe he can bounce back to his former self? |
| 3:49 |
: He’s wild, he’s inconsistent, and now he’s aging (a bit in the velo). Yes, he can, but it becomes less likely, slowly. He’s good for K’s, W’s (assumption there) in a fantasy league, that’s about it, if you’re asking for that reason.
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| 3:49 |
mlb reports mets close to signing sandy alderson to 3 year extension. oh boy…hahah |
| 3:50 |
: Haha, well, that’s better than Terry Collins … although maybe they go hand in hand. …
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| 3:50 |
What’s the best thing I can do to improve during the offseason? Just won my league for the fourth time in five years, but I always want to keep getting better. |
| 3:51 |
: We expect to talk about that some in offseason podcasts. Basically, just always be willing to become more open-minded. Look back at your seasons and see which types of players were unexpectedly good and then try to figure out why.
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| 3:51 |
: That’s a start. There are so many things one can do.
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| 3:52 |
 Are you a “Javier Baez is a slow starter that then adjusts” believer?
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| 3:53 |
: More of a hoper. I like what I see with my eyes, besides the swings and misses. I see fewer holes in his swing than the average fanner and therefore more room for growth. But habits, approach are difficult to change, so maybe I’m just too wishful.
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| 3:53 |
What did Oscar Taveras do to Mike Matheny? |
| 3:54 |
: His dad started interfering? Matheny learned by watching TLR, so really this isn’t much of a surprise.
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| 3:54 |
You starting Alex Wood against Pitt on Tues? |
| 3:55 |
: Yeah, generally speaking, PIT is hot, but Wood is good, shouldn’t be up against much of an IP threshold in that particular start.
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| 3:55 |
5×5 10 team H2H keep-25-forever dynasty league. Saves…or Holds + Saves? Don’t like the fact that Betances, Davis, Watson, etc. are barely usable, but don’t want middle relievers suddenly gaining lots of value. |
| 3:56 |
: HLD+SV, I think. Don’t want that, why not? How many are we talking about, really? Otherwise, try shutdowns and meltdowns (search FG for those).
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| 3:56 |
in an 11-player roto keeper, is keeping $5 Chris Carter, $3 Springer, $11 Ortiz, and $10 Dozier too much of a BA risk? |
| 3:57 |
: Not entirely, but I’d trade one. Probably Carter, just because I imagine you’d get the most for him?
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| 3:57 |
: And because you could also have less faith in him being this good ever again.
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| 3:58 |
Do the Reds try to move Cueto this off season? He is going to cost a lot and the Reds budget isn’t going to be pretty with Votto and Bailey making a ton. I think trying to move Votto makes sense once he restablishes his value. |
| 4:00 |
: That’s a tough one. I tend to agree, RE: Votto, but maybe that’s not really practical. The sounder move might be to trade Cueto, who has a mild injury history (albeit nothing structural, I believe, and therefore I think he’s not as dangerous as others), and sort of retool. Reds tied up Phillips, he’ll be tough to deal, but … it’s a team that’s built to win now but doesn’t have the pieces to win now, so Cueto deal might be smartest long-term and short-term.
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| 4:01 |
Get really good at Excel,SQL,combing through data and making modified projections |
| 4:01 |
: Yeah, a good suggestion. And some things there I need major improvement in, myself.
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| 4:01 |
where has Middlebrooks power/ hit tool gone? do you expect him to find regular playing time somewhere in 2015? is it time to give up on him fantast wise even at a good price? |
| 4:02 |
: I’m not sure his hit tool was ever very good, just the power tool. Regular in 2015, no, but will get a shot to prove he can hold such a job, perhaps. I’d give up on him, yes, he’s not keeper material, more buy low if you’re a believer material.
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| 4:02 |
You think Zimmermann pitches Friday or nah? |
| 4:03 |
: I’d assume so, but not deep, just basically to get in his work. 3, 4, 5 IP tops, maybe.
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| 4:03 |
: OK, folks, that’s a wrap! It’s been real. Fun. Thanks! Enjoy the offseason, we may chat again!
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Nicholas Minnix oversaw baseball content for six years at KFFL, where he held the loose title of Managing Editor for seven and a half before he joined FanGraphs. He played in both Tout Wars and LABR from 2010 through 2014. Follow him on Twitter @NicholasMinnix.