Nicholas Minnix Baseball Chat – 9/22/14 by Nicholas Minnix September 22, 2014 11:34 Nicholas Minnix: Hello, everybody! A surprise chat today. I’ll be with you at the top of the hour, look forward to answering some questions. 2:57 Comment From Los I was 80 games over .500 in my league in 1st place. I got crushed 9-1 in the first round (after a bye) to a team that was 3 games over. Why do I still play H2H? 2:58 Nicholas Minnix: I have no idea! 2:58 Comment From Brad Championship in weekly points league. Degrom has been my ace lately but I’m concerned collins shuts him down after rosters lock. Go with degrom or 2 start peavy against sd and la. Thanks. 2:59 Nicholas Minnix: Wouldn’t risk it. Go with Peavy. 2:59 Comment From David Nats rotation – Roark or Gio? 2:59 Nicholas Minnix: This week? I default to Roark. 2:59 Comment From Vslyke Any insights on John Coppolella? Hearing he’s the frontrunner for the Braves’ GM job 3:00 Nicholas Minnix: No great insight, but from what I’ve read about him, and from what I’ve read that he’s written awhile back, he seems like a sound choice, a strong understanding of the importance of all information. 3:00 Comment From Bill Given Pirates past offseason misses on FA targets, any reason for Huntington et al not to dip a little deeper into pocket for Russ Martin? What’s his FA ceiling, assuming it comes with a QO attached? 3:01 Nicholas Minnix: I think they shouldn’t leave it to question. The C’s on the market this winter after Martin don’t come close to fitting the bill of what they need. They’ll skip the QO and go straight to an offer that keeps both sides happy, I hope/expect. 3:01 Comment From Pennsy On a scale where Chief Wahoo is 100% racist, how racist is the Tomahawk Chop? Dan Szymborski said 88% and Eno Sarris said 70%. 3:03 Nicholas Minnix: Uhhh … I’ll say 89.8%, I like to top. It’s all ambiguous and sort of offensive. It depends on who’s offended. These issues are far beyond black and white, even if they’re mostly one or the other, I tire of the “rhetoric” I should say. It’s nonsense, often. 3:04 Comment From Ryan Seacrest Championship in H2H points league with 10 SP max. How do you feel about starting both Ventura and Salazar tomorrow as they face one another? Think I should drop Salazar and start Niese vs HOU later this week? 3:04 Nicholas Minnix: Wouldn’t bother me. Start your best. 3:04 Comment From 1990JaromirJagr i have a buddy who was saying he believes the worst hitter should be hidden in the 6 spot, due to the way it works out with outs and such. all i could say was data shows lineup construction isnt that important. anything to help me out? 3:06 Nicholas Minnix: I think the returns on such a thing are so mihimal, kind of as you believe, that it’s not worth arguing about, and more so, I think it’s silly to make a statistical decision when the pieces to every team’s lineup are different and therefore the outcomes can’t be definitively favorable based on such analysis every time. 3:06 Comment From THE average sports fan If Frank Wren is getting fired, and it seems as though popular opinion is he deserved it, why not Jocketty? What exactly is the difference between them and their “accomplishments”? 3:06 Nicholas Minnix: If I had the answer to that, sir, then I’d own a planet. 3:07 Comment From Mix Hi! I’m in a league that allows for three keepers, and I’m fortunate to have a few options. We use OBP and SLG instead of AVG and RBIs. Who would you keep from Jose Bautista, Jose Altuve, Anthony Rizzo, Andrew McCutchen, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber? I’ll have to try and find people to trade away the other players to. Many thanks! 3:08 Nicholas Minnix: I think if you don’t have to make that choice now, then don’t worry about it or think about it. I’d try to trade Altuve definitely and Kluber probably and Bautista probably. Rizzo, McCutchen and Kershaw are no-brainers. But things happen in the winter. 3:08 Comment From Elys Mainly for ratios, which outings would you start/bench, assuming they make said starts? Dickey SEA/BAL — Gray LAA/@TEX, Paxton @TOR/LAA 3:11 Nicholas Minnix: This is tough. If it’s just one, Paxton, actually, I like him, and he’s pitching the best of them right now. It’s a gamble. Next I’d go … I have a hard time trusting Gray right now, velo dip, Dickey I think. 3:11 Comment From rams hi nick 3:11 Nicholas Minnix: Hello! 3:11 Comment From 1990JaromirJagr oh okay this time it’s foreal 3:11 Nicholas Minnix: It appears so. 3:12 Comment From rams What the bleep happened to jean segura this season and what should we expect from him next season? 3:13 Nicholas Minnix: Eno and I discussed on a recent pod, which ended up as a blog, this past Thursday. You can get a touch more there. Basically I think .260ish, 25-30 SB, are realistic next year. I think people vastly overrated him this year based on true talent plus how hard it is actually to play in MLB. 3:14 Comment From rams any thoughts on ender inciarte? will he have a starting job next season? 3:16 Nicholas Minnix: He’s avoided the look of potential platoon issues, so that’s a big positive. I fear for his sake that he’ll be cast as a platoon player, though, at least in the short term, and that’s a bit damaging, potentially. I like Peralta, his problem is obviously in platoon, however. I still like Peralta as a starter, more upside vs. RHPs, and that leave Inciarte as a 4th OF next season, barring changes in ARI. 3:16 Comment From Guest peavy or samar 3:16 Nicholas Minnix: Samardzija, I think, roll the dice. 3:16 Comment From Guest Do you think Pearce stays in Baltimore? 3:18 Nicholas Minnix: Goodness, haha, interesting question. He’s final year arb this winter, so, assuming he’s not ridic cost, probably so. 3:19 Nicholas Minnix: And he surely can’t cost too much. 3:19 Comment From David real baseball q: Nats have a problem at 2nd going into next season…MOOKIE BETTS? or anyone else out there a good fit. 3:20 Nicholas Minnix: Betts would seem like a good fit, would help with on-base at leadoff spot, if they don’t pick up Span’s option. But surely they’ll do that, I’d guess. Zobrist, Stephen Drew, otherwise? 3:21 Comment From rams does jon lester repeat his 2014 performance in 2015 or was this season an outlier? 3:22 Nicholas Minnix: Not repeat, but he’s discovered a new level. I’d expect a little natural regression but be closer to this year than last year, which was also good. Something between the two — easy answer. 3:22 Comment From jeff What is worse, Clint Hurdle’s tactital decision making, or his bum hip? 3:23 Nicholas Minnix: Haha, I’ll go with the hip. But he has some things to learn, I’m sure, he’s at least displayed a willingness to learn from past mistakes. 3:23 Comment From Pennsy Let’s presume through the magic of the Internet that Jayson Werth is a FA after this season and wants three years at $63m, exactly what he will get from the Nationals. Does anybody offer him that contract? 3:23 Nicholas Minnix: No. 3:23 Comment From rams 20 team rotisserie league and im up 3.5 points going into this week. Is my lead safe? 3:23 Nicholas Minnix: No. Keep playing. 3:23 Comment From Mix Thanks for the feedback! (Don’t worry about posting this message.) 3:23 Nicholas Minnix: Too late! 3:23 Comment From rams is ellsbury done for the year? 3:24 Nicholas Minnix: I wouldn’t expect him to play again. He might, but there’s really no point for the Yanks to do that. Girardi’s words are more telling than Ells’. 3:24 Comment From rams whats wrong with sonny gray recently? 3:25 Nicholas Minnix: Velo is down a tad, think fatigue is factoring in at a time when A’s can’t really afford to give him a break. Think if they make the postseason, he’d be good to go. 3:25 Comment From 1990JaromirJagr I just discovered on the side of the home page where writers are listed i can go all teh way back to 2005. these artciles are entertaining. jeff kent and mike lowell were still playing.. 3:25 Nicholas Minnix: ! 3:26 Comment From 1990JaromirJagr piggybacking the archives thing- sky kalkman? who? 3:26 Nicholas Minnix: I couldn’t tell you, haha. 3:26 Comment From rams 300 dollar cap, got segura next season at 8 dollars with unlimited keepers. do I keep him, try to deal him, or cut him? 3:28 Nicholas Minnix: At that price, I think he’s still a keeper to consider. Not for sure, but to consider. Unlikely to trade and get what you’d have wanted. I’d throw him back if I thought I could get him for less. But that seems like a fair price for his upside, given that cap. If you don’t like him, tho, then deal him. 3:28 Comment From rams love you and eno by the way, you guys have been a huge help all season. thanks again 3:28 Nicholas Minnix: We try! Thanks! 3:29 Comment From Phil I’m in a 14-team keeper league finishing up its 7th season and I pretty much am guaranteed to win this year at this point. Over time, I have acquired as my three keepers Kershaw, Trout and Stanton. Given the results of this year, the league is polling whether we should make a clean slate and start over. I vote “no” of course, but is it a good idea to start over every few years? 3:30 Nicholas Minnix: Wow. Kudos, well done! No, it’s not, IMO, but it’s good to examine the rules regularly. If it’s keep forever and you keep only 3 guys with no penalty (draft pick/salaries, limit on years), then your league is set up to allow dominance like yours, assuming you fill in around those pieces well. So, revision … is in your league’s future, perhaps. 3:31 Comment From Matt Thanks for the chat Nick. I’m in a 20 team dynasty league in the mold of TDGX. I can keep everyone on my team. Should I throw back Maybin,Quentin,Beckett, and EJax? My starting pitching is Cole,Cobb,Cue to,Kluber,Odorizzi,Holland and McHugh. I have Corbin,Amderson and Bailey on the way back. If May in was the speedster I expected, I would have won the league. 3:31 Nicholas Minnix: I think you can safely throw those players back, they won’t cost much, or any more than they did this season, should be less. Sorry about Maybin! 3:31 Comment From Guest Got any sleeper OF for next year? 3:33 Nicholas Minnix: 15-team mixed, I do like David Peralta, think he’s for real (but a platoon player). Juan Lagares to be a potential 25-SB guy. 3:33 Comment From Carlos Should the Braves trade Gattis to an AL team and stay with youngster Betancourt, or keep him another year or two? 3:35 Nicholas Minnix: I think they can afford a transition year with Gattis, but it’s getting to that time. 2016 should be Bethancourt’s. Gattis isn’t even up for arb this winter, so he’s too cheap not to transition one year, I think, and the Braves may have bigger concerns. 3:35 Comment From rams do you expect gillaspie to have a starting role next season? 3:35 Nicholas Minnix: I think the ChiSox will give other players every chance to take it from him in 2015. In 2014, it was the opposite, someone had to give them a reason. 3:36 Comment From tommy do you like big hugs or little hugs? 3:36 Nicholas Minnix: Big, almost always big. Little if the other hugger is self-conscious or otherwise uncomfortable. 3:36 Comment From Krazy George I mean…I mean…I mean… 3:36 Nicholas Minnix: Yep. 3:36 Comment From Gila Monster Do you buy Gerrit Cole as a fantasy #1 for next season? The stuff is insane and some of the best in baseball, but he seems to have either command problems or sequencing issues 3:37 Nicholas Minnix: Not quite. Too many good ones to buy that yet. But I think this year will put him closer to that than people realize. 3:37 Comment From Rated Rookie Thanks, Frank Wren! 3:37 Nicholas Minnix: Yeah, and take that. 3:38 Comment From Big Commie Machine 21 pitchers have an ERA under 3.00 this season. Is that a modern record? There is normally just a couple. #22 is Edison Volquez who has quietly been blowing by his peripherals. Thoughts? 3:39 Nicholas Minnix: I doubt that it’s a modern record. Definitely not, just looked. Some hitters are bad. I came across this article I intend to read: http://www.theatlantic.com/… 3:40 Nicholas Minnix: I don’t agree with it entirely, but I’m sure it makes a good point or two. 3:40 Comment From PR is storen closer next year? 3:40 Nicholas Minnix: It seems inevitable, likely. They won’t pick up Soriano’s option. 3:40 Comment From PR whose the SD closer next yr? 3:41 Nicholas Minnix: Benoit. 3:41 Comment From David Nats questions/Mookie – No they resign span- Span is amazing..let Laroche walk/Zim to 1st, Betts at 2nd. What sort of prospect would they have to give Boston for Betts? 3:43 Nicholas Minnix: Span’s is an option, so he’ll surely be back. I wouldn’t expect a repeat, though. I think it’d take one of those top two pitching prospects to get Betts, I’m not sure Washington has anything else that would tempt Boston. 3:43 Comment From rams is this the real chris carter this season? seems like his numbers have been ascending for the last two seasons and im starting to believe 3:43 Nicholas Minnix: Yes, believe so, but the swing and miss will always put him at huge risk. I like, more than not. Not by a ton, though, it’s scary. 3:44 Comment From Andy5 My team’s a little dinged up heading into Championship Week (Ellsbury, Pagan). Do I roll with Granderson or Nava for my 3rd OF spot? Also, D. Norris or W. Ramos behind the dish? I have thoughts on what I want to do but am looking for some reassurance (and hopefully not torpedoing my chances by over thinking this!). 3:45 Nicholas Minnix: Reflex: Nava, Ramos. Granderson I’m not sure, is he hitting, then there’s more upside, perhaps you roll the dice, he gets 4 RHPs this week at least. 3:45 Comment From Andy5 And thanks for the chat! I forgot to add that to the end of my question. 3:45 Nicholas Minnix: Thanks! 3:45 Comment From Guest Are you surprised we haven’t seen Lindor getting a cup of coffee? He is the starter opening day for Cleveland, right? 3:46 Nicholas Minnix: No, and no. They wait until the summer, I expect. I think given Jose Ramirez’s play, they can afford to try to hone Lindor’s bat, which needs work. Not his primary tool, of course, but won’t hurt. 3:47 Comment From DarkStar Who would you start as pitcher in the late night 10pm games 3:47 Nicholas Minnix: Samardzija? Is that a choice? Haren. … 3:47 Comment From rams do you expect dallas keuchal to be THIS dallas keuchal next season? 3:48 Nicholas Minnix: Yes, mostly. He has consistent stuff, I think this is a true talent breakout. Repeats are difficult, I’ll just say another solid year. 3:48 Comment From rams is CJ Wilson’s regression this year something to be concerned about next season or do believe he can bounce back to his former self? 3:49 Nicholas Minnix: He’s wild, he’s inconsistent, and now he’s aging (a bit in the velo). Yes, he can, but it becomes less likely, slowly. He’s good for K’s, W’s (assumption there) in a fantasy league, that’s about it, if you’re asking for that reason. 3:49 Comment From 1990JaromirJagr mlb reports mets close to signing sandy alderson to 3 year extension. oh boy…hahah 3:50 Nicholas Minnix: Haha, well, that’s better than Terry Collins … although maybe they go hand in hand. … 3:50 Comment From Reginald Denton III What’s the best thing I can do to improve during the offseason? Just won my league for the fourth time in five years, but I always want to keep getting better. 3:51 Nicholas Minnix: We expect to talk about that some in offseason podcasts. Basically, just always be willing to become more open-minded. Look back at your seasons and see which types of players were unexpectedly good and then try to figure out why. 3:51 Nicholas Minnix: That’s a start. There are so many things one can do. 3:52 Comment From Rated Rookie Are you a “Javier Baez is a slow starter that then adjusts” believer? 3:53 Nicholas Minnix: More of a hoper. I like what I see with my eyes, besides the swings and misses. I see fewer holes in his swing than the average fanner and therefore more room for growth. But habits, approach are difficult to change, so maybe I’m just too wishful. 3:53 Comment From Shawn What did Oscar Taveras do to Mike Matheny? 3:54 Nicholas Minnix: His dad started interfering? Matheny learned by watching TLR, so really this isn’t much of a surprise. 3:54 Comment From Shawn You starting Alex Wood against Pitt on Tues? 3:55 Nicholas Minnix: Yeah, generally speaking, PIT is hot, but Wood is good, shouldn’t be up against much of an IP threshold in that particular start. 3:55 Comment From Sha 5×5 10 team H2H keep-25-forever dynasty league. Saves…or Holds + Saves? Don’t like the fact that Betances, Davis, Watson, etc. are barely usable, but don’t want middle relievers suddenly gaining lots of value. 3:56 Nicholas Minnix: HLD+SV, I think. Don’t want that, why not? How many are we talking about, really? Otherwise, try shutdowns and meltdowns (search FG for those). 3:56 Comment From flanman in an 11-player roto keeper, is keeping $5 Chris Carter, $3 Springer, $11 Ortiz, and $10 Dozier too much of a BA risk? 3:57 Nicholas Minnix: Not entirely, but I’d trade one. Probably Carter, just because I imagine you’d get the most for him? 3:57 Nicholas Minnix: And because you could also have less faith in him being this good ever again. 3:58 Comment From Big Commie Machine Do the Reds try to move Cueto this off season? He is going to cost a lot and the Reds budget isn’t going to be pretty with Votto and Bailey making a ton. I think trying to move Votto makes sense once he restablishes his value. 4:00 Nicholas Minnix: That’s a tough one. I tend to agree, RE: Votto, but maybe that’s not really practical. The sounder move might be to trade Cueto, who has a mild injury history (albeit nothing structural, I believe, and therefore I think he’s not as dangerous as others), and sort of retool. Reds tied up Phillips, he’ll be tough to deal, but … it’s a team that’s built to win now but doesn’t have the pieces to win now, so Cueto deal might be smartest long-term and short-term. 4:01 Comment From Re:How to improve Get really good at Excel,SQL,combing through data and making modified projections 4:01 Nicholas Minnix: Yeah, a good suggestion. And some things there I need major improvement in, myself. 4:01 Comment From rams where has Middlebrooks power/ hit tool gone? do you expect him to find regular playing time somewhere in 2015? is it time to give up on him fantast wise even at a good price? 4:02 Nicholas Minnix: I’m not sure his hit tool was ever very good, just the power tool. Regular in 2015, no, but will get a shot to prove he can hold such a job, perhaps. I’d give up on him, yes, he’s not keeper material, more buy low if you’re a believer material. 4:02 Comment From Ryan Seacrest You think Zimmermann pitches Friday or nah? 4:03 Nicholas Minnix: I’d assume so, but not deep, just basically to get in his work. 3, 4, 5 IP tops, maybe. 4:03 Nicholas Minnix: OK, folks, that’s a wrap! It’s been real. Fun. Thanks! Enjoy the offseason, we may chat again!