NL Division Series Preview: Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

© Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

After ending an 11-year postseason drought, the Phillies weren’t content with a short stay in October. They got a chance to vanquish their most recent playoff conqueror, the St. Louis Cardinals. Somehow, Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina still loomed large, though the Phillies have remade themselves several times since then. The ghosts of the past couldn’t stop them, though; they won in a sweep.

Now, they’ll get a chance to face some more recent tormentors. The Braves have won the NL East in each of the last four seasons. The Phillies have had playoff hopes in each of those years and ended up on the outside looking in each time. It seems only fitting that the Braves, who haven’t lost the season-long series against the Phillies since 2017, stand in their way after the Cardinals.

Atlanta will be comfortably favored in the series. We give them around a 54% chance of advancing; betting markets have them a hair over 60%. That makes sense to me; the Braves won 101 games while the Phillies muddled their way into the last Wild Card slot. But rather than try to predict who will win – it’s a five-game series, so the odds will tend towards 50% regardless of the teams involved – let’s consider some matchups that will help determine the series.

Ranger Suárez vs. Atlanta’s Righties

Ranger Suárez looks likely to draw two starts against the Braves should the series go five games, unless Philadelphia prefers Zack Wheeler on short rest at the end of the series. Suárez faced the Braves a whopping five times this regular season, including twice in September. Both times, each team was desperate for wins. Both times, the Braves stuffed the top of their lineup with righties and stashed Michael Harris II in the seven spot.

That’s a lot of righty bats at the top of the lineup – Ronald Acuña Jr., Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, William Contreras, and Travis d’Arnaud will all play and none are pushovers. That’s historically been Suárez’s weakest point; despite a solid changeup, he’s been victimized by righties throughout his career. It didn’t stop him against the Braves this year – he had a solid 3.21 ERA in those aforementioned five starts – but it’ll certainly be a concern for the Phillies.

Suárez’s plan against Atlanta’s righties was intriguing and speaks to a recent change in his pitch mix. He cut down on his fastball usage, but instead of replacing them with changeups, he used his cutter and curveball. The cutter in particular did a ton of work; he’s not afraid of attacking the zone with it, which helps to keep him out of hitter’s counts.

In fact, his second half surge was driven by cutter usage; he threw 1.5% cutters through the end of June, then 16.5% afterwards. Maybe we should discount his platoon issues somewhat. He’s made a meaningful change and the new pitch has been excellent when it comes to shoring up his biggest weakness.

Atlanta’s Relievers vs. Philly’s Staggered Lineup

The Phillies love to go left/right/left/right at the top of their lineup. Their best five hitters are all studs, and there’s really no wrong way to order them. They choose to make it hard for opposing managers to deploy specialists, which sounds good offhand. How that theory intersects with Brian Snitker’s bullpen usage will determine how the late innings go.

Last year, Snitker’s steady-handed bullpen usage keyed Atlanta’s World Series run. Will Smith, Luke Jackson, Tyler Matzek, and A.J. Minter ground out the last four innings of the game night after night, and Snitker used them whenever he had a lead and often even if he didn’t. This year, Atlanta has upgraded that strategy by adding Collin McHugh, Raisel Iglesias, and Kenley Jansen.

Iglesias is one of the best relievers in baseball, though not one of the most famous. He was downright absurd this year in Atlanta; in 26.1 innings of work, he allowed just two runs to score. He pitches the seventh inning because the team has three closer-caliber relievers, but he’s uniquely suited to attack the top of Philadelphia’s order: his Bugs Bunny changeup gives lefties fits, and he shelves it in favor of a nasty slider against righties.

If Snitker sticks with his inning-by-inning plan, the Phillies could gain an advantage if the top of their order faces Minter. He’s much better against lefties than righties, though of course he’s still good against righties – he’s a great pitcher! Jansen isn’t quite as platoon-proof as he used to be; his transition away from cutters has weakened him against lefties. If I were managing the Phillies, I’d be salivating over the idea of Jansen facing Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. I’d likewise be hoping for Minter to face off against J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins. If I were Atlanta, I’d try to save Iglesias for that staggered top of the lineup. We’ll see whether Snitker plays matchups or sticks to his inning-by-inning roles.

Atlanta’s Power-First Game vs. Philly’s Swiss Cheese Defense

The Braves live and die by the home run. They socked 243 of them this year, behind only the Yankees and miles ahead of third place. That’s a completely reasonable way to run an offense – they scored a boatload of runs and smashed the Mets in a division-clinching series sweep on the back of a home run explosion.

The Phillies have made a brand out of terrible defense. They were one of the worst defensive units in baseball this year, and even though they made several deadline moves to improve their fielding – both by adding Brandon Marsh and Edmundo Sosa, and by releasing Didi Gregorius – they ranked third-worst in the majors in Outs Above Average in September. If you don’t think about that too much, you’d say advantage Phillies: their biggest weakness is masked by the way the Braves score.

One problem: Philadelphia’s recent defensive shortcomings came exclusively in the outfield. Their preferred lineup flanks Marsh with – fans of fundamental defense, please cover your eyes and don’t read this section – Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. That’s a lot of fly balls landing for hits, a lot of line drives in the gap turning into doubles, and so on. They were nine outs below average defensively in September alone; only eight teams cost themselves more outfield outs all season.

The Braves hit a lot of home runs, and they do so by getting the ball in the air. Philadelphia’s concerted defensive improvement mostly shored up the infield. Keeping the Braves in the ballpark isn’t enough; you also have to catch those line drives and fly balls. If the Phillies want to bring that defense to bear, their pitchers will have to do what few teams have managed this year and keep the Braves ground-bound. That’s easier said than done, but if Bryson Stott and Jean Segura are busy on defense, the Phillies will be quite pleased.

Spencer Strider vs. Spencer Strider’s Oblique

This one casts a question mark over the whole series. Spencer Strider was electric this year, authoring one of the best rookie seasons by a starter this century. He’s also hurt; he hit the IL with an oblique strain after a September 18 start. He’ll likely pitch in the series, though we don’t have official word either way yet.

It’s an exaggeration to say that Atlanta’s playoff hopes rest on Strider’s shoulders, but a healthy Strider makes them a much better team. If he isn’t pitching, or if he’s compromised, that’s a lot of innings for Jake Odorizzi — hardly a disaster but not exactly ideal. If Strider returns to form, on the other hand, he gives the team a duo of aces that can rival Philadelphia’s. I don’t have a lot else to say on the matter because I’m not a doctor, but his health is clearly a big part of the picture for the Braves.

Philly’s Aces vs. Atlanta’s Old and Young Duo

The Braves earned a bye into the NLDS, which means they can run out Max Fried twice in the series. He’ll give them a pitching edge in both of those games, naturally. In the second and third games of the series, though, Philadelphia can use Wheeler and Aaron Nola. If Strider isn’t back, the Braves will counter with Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton. If he is back, Morton will pitch the fourth game of the series instead.

Those Philadelphia starters are both studs. They’re coming off of a masterful performance in St. Louis, where they combined for 12.2 scoreless innings. It’s a good bet that runs will be hard to come by in their two starts. It’s not that the Braves can’t score against them, but they’re really good, so it would hardly be a surprise for them to continue their good form, regardless of who they’re facing.

That doesn’t mean Atlanta has no hope in those games, though, even if Strider can’t go. Wright and Morton weren’t dominant this year, but both are solid pitchers. Wright had a few clunkers, and he’s always a threat to give up a crooked number, but when his sinker is biting, he’s capable of transcendent stretches. If he can keep the Braves close for five innings, I think Snitker might call that good enough and lean on his four-headed bullpen monster from there.

The bullpen strategy for Morton’s game will likely depend on the series score. If the Braves are ahead in the series but fall behind early against Nola, Snitker might wave the white flag. One of his best qualities last playoffs was understanding when he was beaten and not throwing high-leverage relievers after a lost cause. When the game was substantially out of hand and not integral to the team staying alive, he was willing to use the back of the bullpen. Should his offense bring the team back, he’d seamlessly transition to the heavy hitters.

Game 3 against Nola is a perfect time for that strategy, particularly if Strider doesn’t pitch and the Braves lead 2-0 heading in. Assuming no Strider, the Braves will likely go with a pseudo-bullpen game as a “fourth starter.” Odorizzi has lasted fewer than five innings in four of his last five starts, and Snitker won’t need much excuse to pull the plug early. Heck, they might even do so with Morton, who’s been up and down this year. McHugh is capable of getting more than three outs. So, too, is Matzek. If Snitker wants to, he could plan on six innings from relievers he trusts.

Whether he does that depends a lot on how much those relievers pitch in the previous game, and that’s where Morton (or Strider if he pitches) comes in. If the Braves are tied or ahead in the Game 3, I think they’ll go for the jugular and deploy the full weight of the bullpen. If they’re behind and not facing elimination, discretion might be the better part of valor. The way the travel schedule lines up, emptying the bullpen in Game 4 is fine; Fried should be able to provide them length. It’s not as much of an advantage this year, since there’s no off day for travel, but it’s still better to have a rested ‘pen for the game where your weakest starter is going. Having as many high-leverage arms as possible available for that potential bullpen day might dictate Atlanta’s strategy in the third game of the series. (Note: an earlier version of this article mentioned an off day between Game 4 and Game 5, which is incorrect).

In the end, it’s easy to over-analyze a best-of-five series. Some pitcher could tweak his neck getting out of bed, hang three sliders, and alter the course of the playoffs. Likewise, a hitter could go on a tear, or fall into a slump at the worst possible time. There’s no way of divining those twists and turns in advance. What we can predict is who will face who, and this series is full of interesting matchups. It should be a blast to watch, regardless of who comes out on top.





Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.

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tz
1 year ago

I wish all the pre-series analyses we see were as well-written as this.