Nolan McLean Looks Unhittable

The World Baseball Classic likely provided many fans their first glimpse of Nolan McLean. The 24-year-old right-hander debuted last August and made just eight big league starts. If you missed his work against Italy on March 10 – if you only caught the last six innings, or if you only saw his line at the end of the night – you might have wondered how McLean ended up starting the championship game for the United States against Venezuela. You might have wondered how this prospect with hardly any major league experience, who earned a 9.00 ERA along with the team’s only loss in the tournament to that point, could have possibly earned that honor over the other All-Stars on the roster.

McLean’s line against Italy wasn’t exactly inspiring. He allowed three earned runs across three innings. He struck out four, but he also walked two batters, hit another, and allowed two home runs. Most of the batted balls he gave up were hard hit. And after that ignominy, he was set to face off against Ronald Acuña Jr. in the championship game? The same Ronald Acuña Jr. who did this to the famous McLean sweeper back in August?

Even if that was your frame of reference coming into Tuesday night, it didn’t take long for the pieces to fall into place. As is so often the case with nasty young flamethrowers, McLean looked absolutely unhittable, even when he was getting hit. Eric Longenhagen has described McLean’s pitches as moving “violently,” and I think that’s right on the money. The slider doesn’t look like it’s sweeping so much as it looks like it’s changing its mind halfway to the plate. It’s an optical illusion due to the camera angle behind the pitcher, but it honestly looks like it’s shifting into top gear once it makes its left turn. The sinker looks like it’s teleporting to the catcher’s glove. The curveball looks like it’s suddenly realized that it has left its curling iron plugged in and needs to get back home as soon as possible. (Even a curveball needs to feel pretty every sometimes.)

McLean left the game in line for another loss — before ultimately being credited with a no-decision in a 3-2 Venezuela win — but it wasn’t hard to see why he’s the top pitching prospect in the game. Here are the grades Eric put on his pitches before the tournament started.

Every pitch except the cutter was already an above-average big league offering, and the curve and slider were already elite. Among the 402 pitchers who threw at least 40 innings last season, McLean’s 117 Stuff+ mark ranked 28th, good for the 93rd percentile. In fact, it put him right between Angel Zerpa and Daniel Palencia, both of whom helped seal the championship for Venezuela. In terms of pure stuff, you could argue McLean was already one of the nastiest pitchers in baseball last year. Had he merely brought that stuff to the party, he would have been impressive, but he did a whole lot more. As you might recall, shaky cell phone footage of McLean working on his changeup grip was the very first baseball-related activity fans got to see this spring. He showed up to camp early and determined to improve his repertoire.

On Tuesday night, McLean’s four-seamer averaged 98.1 mph, more than two ticks above his average during his cup of coffee. He touched 99.2 mph, nearly a full tick harder than anything he threw last year in the majors or at Triple-A. His curveball averaged an extra inch of drop and his sinker two extra inches. He didn’t throw his cutter, but all five of his other pitches averaged at least an inch more horizontal break than he’d shown last season. I don’t have stuff numbers for these two short performances, and I know that it would be unwise to lend them all that much credence even if I did, but I can’t pretend that I wouldn’t enjoy watching those numbers go brrrr.

McLean allowed two earned runs over 4 2/3 innings, walking one, striking out four, and allowing four hits. One run came on a sacrifice fly that followed a weak single, a walk, and a wild pitch; he’s still a rookie. The other came on a Wilyer Abreu home run. In the top of the fifth, on an 0-1 count, McLean made his biggest mistake of the night. Looking to spot a fastball on the outside corner, he caught a bit too much of the plate. McLean had frozen Abreu on a similar pitch a few innings earlier, but this one was a bit higher and a bit farther out where Abreu could get his arms extended. He did just that, reaching out and launching the ball 413 feet to dead center. Byron Buxton tracked back and checked his proximity to the wall, and for a moment it looked like he might have a chance at a robbery, but the ball kept on carrying.

To a certain degree, the championship game was a demonstration that unhittable Wiffle Ball stuff isn’t the only way to get outs. The 32-year-old Eduardo Rodriguez started for Venezuela, and he sparkled. Last year, Rodriguez’s Stuff+ mark of 91 put him in just the ninth percentile, 336 spots below McLean. He has put up a 4.57 FIP and an ERA above 5.00 in each of the last two seasons. And on Tuesday, against one of the best lineups ever assembled, he gave a masterclass, striking out four and allowing just one hit and one walk. Venezuela brought plenty of stuff to the party in the form of Palencia, Zerpa, Eduard Bazardo, and even Andrés Machado, who touched 99.5 mph, but Rodriguez set the tone for the night by rocking the American bats to sleep with a four-seamer that averaged 92.6 mph.

Still, we get excited about stuff for a reason. McLean was dominant in his first taste of the majors last year, and even though he ended the WBC with a 5.87 ERA and an 0-1 record, his performance absolutely jumped off the screen. He’s got plenty of learning to do, but he’s already fun to watch.