Now the Red Sox Look Like the Best In the League*

A few weeks ago, I found myself messing around on one of the projections pages, and I happened upon something I didn’t expect: the Mariners were projected for the highest team WAR in the American League. I wrote all about it for Fox, and while people made their jokes about the Mariners only looking like a contender after the end of the season, I thought it was neat to be able to establish a sort of pre-offseason baseline. What the numbers say right now isn’t meaningless. At the start of the offseason, the Mariners looked solid. How they look at the end depends on their own moves, and on the moves of the others.

So, about those others. Consider the Mariners knocked out of first place, if only until the next domino falls. The Red Sox have reached an agreement with Hanley Ramirez, and he will play some position. The Red Sox have also reached an agreement with Pablo Sandoval, and he will play third base. Go into the numbers now and you see a new best team in the American League. It’s only based on projections, and it’s not even December, but last year the Red Sox finished in last, and that doesn’t look real likely to repeat.

This actually requires a little bit of guesstimation. I suppose all projections are essentially guesstimates, but, let me explain. If you sort the depth chart page, the Red Sox are still a full win behind the Mariners. So that looks a lot more like second place than first place, but there’s a little something that gets revealed upon deeper investigation. Specifically, Rusney Castillo doesn’t yet have a projection, so he’s showing up at -0.2 WAR as a regular center fielder. That performance is possible, but unlikely, given Castillo’s skills and price. The Red Sox are paying Castillo to be almost a two-win player. And if he were to really struggle, the Sox would presumably give more time to Mookie Betts. Let’s play things somewhat conservative and bump Castillo up to 1 WAR. Now you have the Red Sox leapfrogging the Mariners, pulling in front by the smallest of margins.

To repeat a table format I used in an earlier post about the White Sox and Adam LaRoche, here are positional WAR projections:

Team	C	1B	2B	SS	3B	LF	CF	RF	DH	SP	RP	WAR
AL Avg.	3.3	2.6	2.7	2.3	3.3	2.1	2.9	2.5	1.4	8.7	1.9	33.7
Red Sox	2.7	3.0	5.1	3.5	3.7	3.5	2.5	3.2	2.6	6.6	2.9	39.3
–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
AL Rank	12	4	2	1	6	2	7	3	2	14	2	1

The Red Sox have a lot of strengths, and few weaknesses, at least as Steamer and the depth charts see it. The numbers aren’t wild about Christian Vazquez, but he’s mostly in there for his defense. The rest of the positions are at least acceptable, save for the starting rotation. And that’s where the Red Sox know they need some help.

They’re said to still be in on Cole Hamels. Some have even reported that the Sox are close to signing Jon Lester, although what’s more probable is that Boston is just active in talks. It’s hard to know who to trust and who to ignore right now, with nobodies coming out of the woodwork to break significant news. What feels like a certainty is that Boston will upgrade the staff. Just a matter of settling identities and price. We could be talking about one arm, or we could be talking about two.

Since 1950, 711 different teams have posted at least 35 WAR. Only seven of them have had rotations worth under 7 WAR, as the Red Sox are currently projected. The 2004 Dodgers were fourth in baseball in position-player WAR, fifth in bullpen WAR, and 28th in rotation WAR. Those Dodgers won their division, so it’s possible to succeed while being this lopsided, but the Red Sox aren’t interested in following the same path. They want some more balance, and they’re very obviously positioned to get it.

Let’s say the team makes a trade. A trade looks like a lock. Let’s say they trade for a three-win starting pitcher. If they were to trade Xander Bogaerts, I’d project almost two additional WAR. If, more likely, they were to trade Yoenis Cespedes, I’d project about one additional WAR. They could make a trade and also make a signing, and a signing could add another 2-3 wins. Right now, the depth chart has Allen Webster, Brandon Workman, and Anthony Ranaudo contributing 1.4 WAR over 370 innings. That’s exactly where the Red Sox would like to find 6 – 7 WAR. I apologize for repeating WAR over and over and over again, but that’s what you have to do when there aren’t actual games being played. You have to project what a team is going to be.

And it looks like the Red Sox are positioned to be 2015’s American League favorite. Steamer basically thinks they’re there right now, and while the Mariners will do something within the next month, the Red Sox also aren’t finished. And among the teams behind them, there’s only so much they can improve. The A’s will add to the middle infield, but they don’t have much to spend. The Tigers have already spent on Victor Martinez, and the Jays have already spent on Russell Martin. The Angels claim to be low on payroll flexibility. Boston was already the first team to go worst to first to worst. They’re lining up to go worst to first to worst to first.

It’s not hard to see where things could go wrong. Last year also had the Red Sox projected to win their division. Stuff happens. The difference between a top-five team and a bottom-five team is less than you’d think. But last year’s top five projected records belonged to the Nationals, Dodgers, Tigers, Red Sox, and Cardinals. Four of those teams won their divisions. These numbers mean something, even in November, and now it’s perfectly clear why the Red Sox traded Jon Lester for short-term help instead of long-term assets. The Red Sox already had plenty of long-term assets. They want to win as soon as they can, and they can win now.