Odds for 2012 World Series, Converted to Projections
Bodog has published their early odds for the winner of the 2012 World Series. I’ve included the odds for each of the 30 MLB teams below. I’ve also included the break-even (BE) point (i.e. the likelihood of winning above which a team must have in order for a bet to be profitable) and a generic “projected” probability (i.e. what the odds suggest is the likely chance of each team winning the World Series) calculated by scaling the total break-even percentage for all 30 teams to 100%.
Numbers after the jump. Note: I’ve assumed, as I believe is custom, that the bettor gets his original stake back in a winning bet. So if the odds are 4/1 — as they are for Philadelphia — the bettor receives $5 in return for a winning $1 bet, making the break-even point only 20%.
Team Odds BE Proj% Philadelphia Phillies 4/1 20.0% 14.2% New York Yankees 13/2 13.3% 9.5% Boston Red Sox 8/1 11.1% 7.9% Texas Rangers 12/1 7.7% 5.5% Detroit Tigers 14/1 6.7% 4.7% St. Louis Cardinals 14/1 6.7% 4.7% San Francisco Giants 16/1 5.9% 4.2% Tampa Bay Rays 18/1 5.3% 3.7% Atlanta Braves 18/1 5.3% 3.7% Arizona Diamondbacks 20/1 4.8% 3.4% Milwaukee Brewers 22/1 4.3% 3.1% Chicago Cubs 25/1 3.8% 2.7% Cincinnati Reds 25/1 3.8% 2.7% Colorado Rockies 25/1 3.8% 2.7% Los Angeles Angels 25/1 3.8% 2.7% Los Angeles Dodgers 30/1 3.2% 2.3% Florida Marlins 30/1 3.2% 2.3% Chicago White Sox 30/1 3.2% 2.3% Washington Nationals 30/1 3.2% 2.3% Oakland Athletics 35/1 2.8% 2.0% Toronto Blue Jays 35/1 2.8% 2.0% Minnesota Twins 35/1 2.8% 2.0% New York Mets 35/1 2.8% 2.0% Cleveland Indians 50/1 2.0% 1.4% Seattle Mariners 60/1 1.6% 1.2% Pittsburgh Pirates 60/1 1.6% 1.2% San Diego Padres 75/1 1.3% 0.9% Baltimore Orioles 75/1 1.3% 0.9% Kansas City Royals 75/1 1.3% 0.9% Houston Astros 100/1 1.0% 0.7%
First Impressions:
• The Dodgers’ odds look inflated. Given that the chance of winning the Series is about 12.5% once a team makes the postseason, a 2.3% chance of winning the Series suggests they have close to a 20% of making the playoffs. That’s pretty high for a team that underwhelmed in 2011 and appears ready to give Juan Rivera ca. $4 million.
• The Angels’s projected odds, meanwhile, appear to underrate the team, which hovered near the top of the AL West well into September.
• The Royals and Indians are probably also underrated by this measure. Both teams are decently situated — the former because of its breadth of young talent, the latter for its starting pitching — to make a run at the AL Central title. Likewise, their divisional cohorts, the Tigers, are probably overvalued.
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Perhaps I’m a homer, but the Reds and Cubs have the same odds?
I agree.
Also, Rays seem high to me. What odds do the Rays have to even make the playoffs with how the Red Sox and Yankees are ranked on this list?
White Sox look low as well.
probably pretty similar to their odds to make it in 2011, and well, look what happened.
Something with a terribly low chance of happening happened
Their pitching was an absolute disaster this year. But if they are even average on the mound they should definitely be higher, yep.
I am under the impression that betting odds are not based on actual predictions, but the expected betting behavior. Bodog’s ideal situation is to get proportional amounts of money on each bet, so that they don’t lose anything on any outcome.
For instance if people from north of Madison Avenue are super silly and throw lots of money down on the Cubs, they need to adjust the odds to fit that betting pattern so that their books don’t get imbalanced.
Wow, posted this without reading the lower comments. There are people down there who explain betting odds much better than I did.
The only statistical analysis this is based on is betting patterns. They want to attract equal money on all teams to maximize gain and minimize loss. Teams with large fanbases (Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs) will always have odds lower than they should be because they are going to get action on them so they don’t have to offer long odds. Teams with smaller fanbases will be longer shots than they should be.
This is about who the betting public will place money on, not who has the best roster.