OLIVER Top 10 Prospect List, Revised
Towards the end of January, I wrote a review of the OLIVER projections — and general layout of same — that appear at The Hardball Times (a piece that was complemented by an interview with the giant brain behind the operation, Brian Cartwright). As part of that review, I included a “Kinda Sorta” Prospect List — that is, the top-10 rookie-eligible batters sorted purely by OLIVER’s projected 2011 WAR.
Mr. Cartwright has recently informed me that, since that first post, he has altered the amount of regression on the defensive side of the player projections. As a result, the top-10 list has changed, and so I offer this follow-up.
In fact, below you will find two lists. Because the first list is so rife with catchers, I’ve included a second list of field players sans sans catchers.
With Catchers:
1. Jesus Montero, C, NYA
2. Robinson Chirinos, C, TBA
3. Derek Norris, C, WAS
4. Mike Moustakas, 3B, KCA
5. Wil Myers, C, KCA
6. Matt Young, CF, ATL
7. Devin Mesoraco, C, CIN
8. Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE
9. Todd Frazier, LF, CIN
10. Ryan Lavarnway, C, BOS
Sans Catchers:
1. Mike Moustakas, 3B, KCA
2. Matt Young, CF, ATL
3. Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE
4. Todd Frazier, LF, CIN
5. Dustin Ackley, 2B, SEA
6. Zack Cozart, SS, CIN
7. Brock Holt , SS, PIT
8. Marquez Smith, 3B, CHN
9. Brad Emaus, 2B, NYN
10. Thomas Neal, LF, SFN
Notes:
• Andrelton Simmons (SS, ATL, formerly No. 4) and Zelous Wheeler (SS, MIL, formerly No. 10) fall off the first list due to the defensive regressions. Mesoraco and Frazier are the new additions.
• Angel prospect Mike Trout finishes at No. 12 on that latter list.
• Matt Young and Ryan Lavarnway both appear on my totally hot non-prospect rookie list in this year’s Second Opinion. Available at better bookstores everywhere right here, actually. Young is probably better than Nate McLouth.
• Wil Myers has been officially moved to the outfield by the Royals. Adjusting for an increase in playing time but a considerable decrease in positional adjustment, he probably comes in close to Thomas Neal in that second list.
• I don’t care what these rankings say: Zelous Wheeler is No. 1 in my heart.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
I would be…well let’s just say absolutely shocked if Brock Holt was to spend even one minute in the majors this year, let alone enough to accumulate enough WAR to place that high on a list of rookies.
BROCK HOLT!
Well played, sir.
I made this last season.
http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e95/schide66/BrockHolt.jpg
These are the pure MLE OLIVER forecasts, so actual playing time isn’t projected.
As for Holt, OLIVER projects him as just an average SS, so most of his value is coming from a combination of his bat and positional adjustment. The K rate looks a tad high for age/level, but OLIVER’s interest makes me interested.
Ah, so it’s MLE scale WAR. That makes more sense. In that case it’s nice to see him that high. He was injured for the second half of the season last year, so hopefully he stays healthy this year so we can see what he can do.
Carson, based on the comments here, I think you messed up in calling it a “Prospect List.” Generally, when we refer to “prospects”, we’re talking about a guy’s ultimate career potential or peak WAR. This is really a list of “guys not currently in the majors who would do really well if they were placed there in 2011.”
Point taken, Yirmiyahu. That was actually the motivation for calling it a “Kinda, Sorta” prospect list. Of course, one can only make so many disclaimers and qualifiers in the title of a blog post.