One Night Only! (Helpful Weekend Edition)

This edition of One Night Only has gotch yer back.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

Friday, September 10th
Philadelphia (4) at New York Nationals (3), 7:10pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Roy Halladay (10) and Jenrry Mejia (N/A). The former you’ll know on account of he toys with opposing batters’ emotions. The latter is a prospect (ranked #3 on Hulet’s preseason top-10 list) who’s been handled curiously this year by the Mets. In 32.2 major league innings, his K and BB numbers are leaving a lot to be desired (5.23 K/9, 4.68 BB/9), but he’s sporting a 63.2% groundball rate.
• At the team level, the Phils are third in the whole majors in stolen base runs by linear weights, with +9.02 runs*. They’re 86-for-103 on the season, with Shane Victorino (31-for-34) and Jimmy Rollins (17-for-18) leading the way.
• You should take note of Lucas Duda — not so much because his surname sounds like a hilarious euphemism (although that can’t be ignored) but also because he’s only 24 and slashed .314/.389/.610 in 298 Triple-A PAs. StatCorner has him with a minor league 124 wOBA+, suggesting it’s not some sort of park-related bidness.

*Exactly 1000 caveats apply to this statement. The Phils are super efficient, is the point.

Saturday, September 11th
Tampa Bay (10) at Toronto (8), 1:07pm
• Note, first, that this game isn’t on FOX, which means you can watch it.
• Note, second, that this game is being played in Canada, which means you might escape maudlin and overwrought tributes to the events of September 11th, 2001. Was that particular day absolutely horrible and terrifying? Yes. Is it pleasant to hear Joe Buck wax pious about it? Absolutely not.
• Your starting pitchers are Wade Davis (3) and Ricky Romero (7). Question: Has anyone ever seen Romero and Jaime Garcia in the same room? Romero’s line this year: 7.46 K/9, 3.42 BB/9, 54.6% GB, 3.74 xFIP. Garcia: 7.32 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 55.9% GB, 3.75 xFIP. Garcia’s younger; Romero’s facing DHs and the AL East.
• At the team level, what the Blue Jays offer you is power — not just with a capital-P, but with a capital everything else, too. Their park-adjusted HR/FB rate is 12.8% — i.e. two standard deviations above the current mean of 9.4%*. Also, their park has a HR/FB factor of 108. Which, all that together means Home Run City.
• You should take note of Rocco Baldelli, who is (a) likely to be DH-ing for the Rays in this one and (b) the Joe DiMaggio of Rocco Baldellis. (Think about it.)

*This seems lowish as a league-wide figure. But also: I frequently have no idea what I’m doing. So there’s that, too.

Sunday, September 12th
San Francisco (4) at San Diego (10), 4:05pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Tim Lincecum (9) and Mat Latos (10). OMG. OMG. OMG. OMG. OMG.
• At the team level, these two clubs are like two men jousting, and the winner gets to marry the princess, but the princess only loves one of them, but the king likes the other one better. All of which is to say, the Giants and Padres, as of today, are only a game apart in the standings.
• You should take note of the variety of strikeouts in this game. I’m going with an over/under of, say, 19 total. No jokesies.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Estimated NERD