One Night Only: Hot Game Previews for May 17th

Guess the amount of percent that Roy Oswalt is planning to give this evening.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Expanded previews for three games: Chicago (NL) at Cincinnati, Philadelphia at St. Louis, and San Diego at Arizona.

2. Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games (using the highly experimental and dangerous pitcher-heavy method discussed recently).

3. Plops.

Chicago Nationals (2) at Cincinnati (9) | 19:10 ET
Starting Pitchers
Cubs: Matt Garza (10)
49.2 IP, 11.78 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, .382 BABIP, 48.0 GB%, 2.9% HR/FB, 2.14 xFIP, 58 xFIP-

Reds: Edinson Volquez (6)
42.1 IP, 8.72 K/9, 7.02 BB/9, .275 BABIP, 56.9 GB%, 21.2% HR/FB, 4.31 xFIP, 114 xFIP-

The Garza Conundrum
• There must be quite a few people out there who think that, instead of being the best pitcher in baseball (as FIP and xFIP both suggest), who think that Matt Garza’s more like the 80th-best pitcher in baseball (as his ERA suggests).
• What ought we to do about this?
• Yelling loudly at those people, while temporarily satisfying, probably isn’t a long-term solution.
• Snark-ridden tweets — again, while maybe pleasant in the moment — aren’t particularly effective, either.
• I’d suggest “using reason,” except most of these people will be Cubs fans, which suggests they’ve divorced themselves from reason some time ago.

Philadelphia (1) at St. Louis (7) | 20:15 ET
Starting Pitchers
Phillies: Roy Oswalt (6)
27.0 IP, 7.00 K/9, 2.33 BB/9, .247 BABIP, 45.5 GB%, 7.1% HR/FB, 3.47 xFIP, 93 xFIP-

Cardinals: Jaime Garcia (9)
52.1 IP, 8.25 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, .280 BABIP, 54.9 GB%, 5.0% HR/FB, 2.73 xFIP, 73 xFIP-

Notes
• If someone came up to me and was like, “Cistulli, who’s your Cy Young through the first month-plus of the season?” I’d be like, “Please don’t ask me that question.”
• If that person kept pushing, though, I’d defitinely be like “Your mom.”
• If that person then was all, “Listen, I’m only going to ask you one last time,” I’d be like, “I’d prefer you ask me zero more times.”*
• In my head, though, I’d be thinking about how Jaime Garcia has one of the best swinging-strike rates (12.4%) in the majors despite an average fastball velocity of just 89.5 mph.
• And then I’d look at the leaderboard and see that Shaun Marcum (12.7%) and Chris Narveson (11.8%) are both in the top five by that same measure despite average fastball velocties of 86.3 mph and 88.0 mph, respectively.

*Or I’d sheepishly answer “Roy Halladay.” One or the other.

Three Strange Notes on Roy Oswalt
• Oswalt’s start tonight is being considered a “rehab start” — despite the fact that he’s making it in the majors.
• He’ll be throwing just 60 to 65 pitches.
• He said, “I’m going to go out and give 100 percent. And if it don’t work, it don’t work.”

San Diego (7) at Arizona (10) | 21:40 ET
Starting Pitchers
Padres: Tim Stauffer (6)
46.2 IP, 7.33 K/9, 2.12 BB/9, .317 BABIP, 51.4 GB%, 7.9% HR/FB, 3.02 xFIP, 81 xFIP-

Diamondbacks: Daniel Hudson (9)
51.0 IP, 8.47 K/9, 2.82 BB/9, .329 BABIP, 40.7 GB%, 3.3% HR/FB, 3.50 xFIP, 93 xFIP-

Notes
• Tim Stauffer apparently has the 12th-best xFIP of the league’s 115 qualified starters.
• The names directly after his on said leaderboard: Felix Hernandez, Brett Anderson, Ricky Romero.
• Some other names, also after his: Trevor Cahill, Josh Beckett, Jered Weaver, Josh Johnson, Michael Pineda.
• One last name: Joe Saunders.
• Damn, right?

Regarding Why Stauffer’s NERD Is That Low, Despite the Excellent xFIP
Despite the fact that Stauffer’s xFIP is excellent, there are some other qualities that make him probably less compelling to the spectator.

To wit:

• He has a swinging-strike rate of just 7.0%, where average for starters is about 8.0%
• He only throws an average number of strikes (62.6%, where average is 62.7%).
• His velocity is slightly below average (90.1 mph average fastball, where league average is ca. 90.4 mph).
• He’s not particularly young (29).

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD of 5 (or 10 for debuts)