One Night Only! (Spahn and Sain and Oswalt Edition)

Turn on your heart light, baseball fans.

(Games listed in order of likely awesomness. NERD scores in parentheses.)

Florida (7) at Philadelphia (3) | 7:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Marlins: Andrew Miller (N/A)
15.0 IP, 6.60 K/9, 6.00 BB/9, .324 BABIP, 46.7% GB, 6.3% HR/FB, 5.09 xFIP

Phillies: Cole Hamels (9)
181.0 IP, 9.10 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, .295 BABIP, 44.4% GB, 13.0% HR/FB, 3.45 xFIP

Philly and the Postseason
According to both Baseball Prospectus and Cool Standings, the Phillies have about a 73% chance of making the playoffs. I’m not sure that either methodology accounts for the fact that Wilson Valdez has 288 PA this season while posting a .274 wOBA (65 wRC+) — many of those PA coming as a replacement for the talented and handsome Chase Utley.

In other words, it’s probably better than 73%.

Philly and the Postseason (Starting Pitcher Remix)
You’ve probably already known this since you were born or something, but it’s still a fact: the Phillies have three excellent starting pitchers. Behold:

Pitcher		xFIP
Halladay	2.93
Hamels		3.46
Oswalt		3.56

After last year’s ALDS, in which the Yankees beat the Angels, Dave Cameron noted how 48 of the 59 innings pitched by New York (81.4%) during the series were thrown by only four New Yorkers: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera. New York used a similar technique to dispatch of Philly in the World Series.

It’s likely that, by this one measure alone, Philadelphia would actually have an even bigger advantage this postseason, were they to leverage their pitching the way New York did last year.

It wouldn’t be right to say that Brad Lidge, despite his totally competent 3.64 xFIP, is the same sort of weapon as Mariano Rivera. However, here are the other three relevant pitchers.

Pitcher		xFIP
Sabathia	3.82
Burnett		4.29
Pettitte	4.38

League-average ERA — to which xFIP is calibrated — is 4.12 this year. Last year, it 4.32. That’s a kinda big leap, but it also doesn’t make up for the difference in the two staffs above.

Youth of Florida
One of the main components behind Florida’s elevated NERD score is the youth of their team, in which category (i.e. youth — and, specifically, batter age) they rank third, behind only Pittsburgh (26.7) and Arizona (26.8).

In particular, it’s the Marlins’ outfield that’s notable in this regard, as left fielder Logan Morrison (23), center fielder Cameron Maybin (23), and Mike Stanton (20) are all almost young enough to write for FanGraphs.

St. Louis (3) at Milwaukee (9) | 8:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Cardinals: Jaime Garcia (7)
153.1 IP, 7.28 K/9, 3.58 BB/9, .295 BABIP, 55.3% GB, 6.9% HR/FB, 3.75 xFIP

Brewers: Chris Capuano (N/A)
37.0 IP, 9.00 K/9, 3.16 BB/9, .329 BABIP, 44.8% GB, 12.8% HR/FB, 3.68 xFIP

Capuano as a Starter
I submit that Chris Capuano is reason enough to watch this game.

Since he (i.e. Capuano) replaced Manny Parra in the rotation at the end of August, he’s made two starts, with a line that looks exactly like this:

8.0 IP, 38 TBF, 9 K, 5 BB, 10 H on 22 BIP, 12 GB on 24 Batted Balls, 2 HR on 9 FB.

First off, I don’t know if I’ve made it clear in this electronic pages, so I’ll say it vigorously right this minute: I’m the head of the Manny Parra Fan Club. I arrange all the functions, prepare all the mailings, send kinda creepy emails to Parra — all that.

But second off, it’s hard not to find Capuano compelling at the moment. Not only is he coming back from those consecutive Tommy Johns, but it also might surprise the reader to learn that Capuano has actually conceded 7 R (and 7 ER) in those 8.0 IP.

In other words, while pitching in what appears to be a generally effective way, Capuano has been dreadfully unlucky in terms of results.

Jon Jay’s Luck
About a month ago, St. Louis’s Jon Jay was batting .382/.433/.583. When that was happening, you probably did what I did:

1. Got really excited.
2. Got immediately suspicious.
3. Checked Jay’s BABIP.
4. Were like, “Ah, man.”

The BABIP you found at Jay’s elegantly designed player page was probably something like .430 or whatever. Unsustainable, whatever it was.

A month or so later, Jay’s doing this now: .323/.378/.472 (.368 BABIP), .367 wOBA, 132 wRC+. In other words, an excellent (if not crazy) line, but with something like a reasonable BABIP. Ultimately, his ball-in-play luck will continue to regress, but given his decent speed, it’s not crazy to think it could sit at something like .320, or even slightly higher.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

Note: As a couple readers have informed me, Luke French is accidentally marked as being a Tiger — as opposed to being a Mariner. First off, thank you to those readers. Second off, please note: this adjustment makes the game no more watchable than before. At all. Don’t watch it.

pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Estimated NERD