One Night Only: Yer Darn Tootin’ It’s a Pennant Race

by
August 18, 2010

Today’s edition of One Night Only is brought to you by the Midwest.

“The Midwest: We might be overweight, but we had fun getting this way.”

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

Wednesday, August 18 | Chicago (AL) at Minnesota | 8:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Pale Hose: Gavin Floyd (7)
151.0 IP, 7.39 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, .314, BABIP, 51.1% GB, 7.1% HR/FB, 3.68 xFIP

Twinkers: Francisco Liriano (10)
146.1 IP, 9.84 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, .350 BABIP, 54.0% GB, 2.0% HR/FB, 2.94xFIP

MVP?
Here are some things that might interest ye. The first thing is Joe Mauer’s line through July 24th: .295/.365/.435. Now here’s Joe Mauer’s line since then: .516/.588/.750.

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“But Carson,” maybe you’re saying, “not only is that a small sample, but his BABIP is over like .500 in that time.” To which I reply: “Hey, how bout you take a trip to Cram-It Ville, and cram it.”

“But Carson,” maybe you’re continuing to say, “Cram-It Ville isn’t even a real place.” To which I reply, again: “Yeah, actually you’re right. Sorry, I just got carried away.”

FYI, here’s Mr. Joe Mauer’s current season line now: .331/.404/.486, .381 wOBA, 141 wRC+, 4.2 WAR. That’s from a catcher, friends.

Danny Frigging Valencia
Yesterday, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors briefly speculated that the Twins might claim Brandon Inge off waivers, if and when he (i.e. Inge) is placed there by his current team, the Detroit Tigers. Dierkes went on to suggest that the Twinkers might be fine with young Danny Valencia manning third for the duration of the season.

As it might for you, too, it made me curious about Valencia’s performance thus far. Here’s what I found: .329/.375/.419, .354 wOBA, 123 wRC+, 1.6 WAR, 168 PA.

Because you’re a nerd, you’re also very likely wondering about his (i.e. Valencia’s) luck, and you’re right to do so, as Valencia’s BABIP currently stands at .385. That number will probably regress. How far, is the question.

In any case, using Jackie Moore’s Four Factors, we can say this much: all other things being equal, Danny Valencia with a .350 BABIP brings his wOBA down to .330, a .325 BABIP means a .310 wOBA, and .300 BABIP equals a .290 wOBA.

Given his batted-ball profile, which is pretty typical actually, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him move more towards the last of those sets of figures.

Notes from Erik Manning, Owner-Operator of Pale Hose Pariah
• You can heap all sorts of superlatives when it comes to the White Sox pitching rotation. They are solid from top to bottom, even after losing Jake Peavy for the season. For all the attention that the Brothers Roy or Wainwright-Carpenter get, Danks-Floyd arguably have been the best 1-2 punch in baseball. Floyd is also the poster boy of xFIP. Behold: April ERA – 6.49, xFIP 4.06. May – 5.63, 4.10, June – 2.58, 3.28, July 0.80, 3.28, August 3.92, 3.93.
• Jim Thome has a .409 wOBA. The White Sox DH’s have averaged a .307 wOBA. It’s a dead horse in Sox-o-sphere, but… angry eyebrows. >:(
• I’ve seen this print on a t-shirt, and I want one.

Top Secret Information
This game is what we in the industry refer to as “one-a spicey meat-a-ball.” That’s as much as I’m allowed to say, however.

If I Had My Druthers
This game would be an actual spicy meatball, and I’d eat the frig out of it.

Other Games
TEX (Derek Holland, N/A) at TB (James Shields, 8) | 1:10pm ET
Why won’t you let Derek Holland be great, America?

COL (Jason Hammel, 8) at LAD (Hiroki Kuroda, 8) | 10:10pm ET
Carlos Gonzalez, plate discipline: 4.7% BB, 23.4% K.





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

7 Comments
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My echo and bunnymen
15 years ago

Let’s Go Go Go Go White Sox!

0
James
15 years ago
Reply to  My echo and bunnymen

The bullpen is a disaster, total disarray. I’m not sure how that’s going to be fixed… Next two games are must wins.

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