Going into this trade deadline season, you might have thought that the Mets could use a fifth starter, or a center fielder with good glove and bat combo, or a third baseman, but instead they went and got another corner outfielder when they traded 22-year-old infielder Dilson Herrera and another minor leaguer for the Reds’ Jay Bruce.
Since the Mets have an affordable $13m option on Bruce next season, it may be a look ahead in case Yoenis Cespedes opts out of his contract. But in the meantime, Bruce makes for an uneasy fit on this roster. Sort of. Because he’s also perfect for the team, in that he’s just like the rest of the team. He makes them more like themselves.
The Baltimore Orioles’ vision from 2012 is almost fully formed. In 2011, they selected Dylan Bundy with the fourth-overall pick in the draft, and the following year, they did the same with Kevin Gausman. In 2013, Bundy was the No. 2 overall prospect in the game, according to Baseball America. He was Lucas Giolito. Gausman was No. 26 — he was Jose Berrios. Now, three years later, it’s 2016, and the club is in first place. It’s all going to plan. The Orioles are leading the American League East, and it’s all thanks to their dominant starting rotation, led by workhorse aces Bundy and Gausman — among the most dominant one-two punches in the league.
I’m sorry, what’s that? Everything’s true except for the last part? You’re telling me the Orioles are in first place, but their rotation has a 5.00 ERA? They just traded for Wade Miley? Gausman’s never thrown more than 115 innings in a season and has a career-worst 4.45 FIP and Bundy’s only made three major-league starts? Three?
So, maybe the vision from 2012 isn’t fully realized. But the Orioles are winning, and, despite a bit of a circuitous route in getting there, this is the closest that vision’s ever come to being a reality. Because Dylan Bundy is a starter now. Alongside Gausman in the major leagues, and for the first time in their careers, finally. We’ve been waiting for this for years. And, at the risk of delving too deep into sports talk radio host jargon, Bundy feels like he could be a massively important piece for an Orioles club that badly needs a shot in the arm if it wants to make a deep postseason run. I swear I’m not going to use the phrase “X-Factor.”
Taylor Hearn has been drafted four times, first selected by the Pirates in the 22nd round of the 2012 draft out of Royse City High School in Texas. After two years at JUCO powerhouse San Jacinto, Hearn transferred to Oklahoma Baptist for his junior season, struck out 71 hitters in 64.1 innings, and was selected in the fifth round of the 2015 draft by Washington.
Hearn was starting for the Nationals’ GCL affiliate before moving to the bullpen upon his promotion to Hagerstown. Despite pitching exclusively in relief for the past month, he has remained stretched out, throwing multiple innings in each appearance, and the Pirates have stated that they hope to develop him as a starter. He has the body and delivery for it.
A lithe and projectable 6-foot-5, Hearn has some issues repeating what is a loose and athletic delivery. The arm is quick and Hearn extends well, allowing his mid-to-upper 90s velocity to play up. Hearn sits 93-96 mph but has been up to 99 in short stints and his fastball features good downhill plane. His slider is average and Hearn has very little command of it, but it has a chance to tick up a half grade or so with reps. His changeup is also promising and projectable, mostly because of how quick and athletic the arm is, and I do think Pittsburgh is right to try to develop Hearn as a rotation arm. The body, delivery and repertoire to start are all either here already or reasonably foreseeable, though moving Hearn along as a starter will take longer than if Washington fast tracked him as a ‘pen arm.
Hearn has had some injury issues throughout his career. He suffered from a strained UCL in high school and had a screw put in his elbow as a college freshman after suffering two humeral fractures. There’s lots of risk involved here, because of Hearn’s injury history and because he throws a baseball very hard for a living, but it’s a intriguing flier for Pittsburgh.
Dave Cameron: With four hours to go, there are still a ton of players who should be moved by days end, so I’m guessing we’re going to see a flood of deals once the dam breaks.
12:01
Dave Cameron: This feels like one of those days where everyone has their plan Bs and Cs lined up, so once they all decide to move on from Plan A, we’re going to get a bunch of moves all at once.
12:02
Dave Cameron: We’ll be hanging out here all afternoon, rotating through FG authors depending on who is writing up what. Eric Longenhagen will be swinging by at 2 to answer prospect related questions as well.
12:03
JoshP: How badly do the mets end up overpaying for Bruce?
12:04
Dave Cameron: I don’t really see the fit there. Bruce is an average-at-best player, and he forces Granderson or Conforto to CF. I doubt they’ll pay a high price for him.
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.
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Most Highly Rated Game Toronto at Houston | 20:10 ET Stroman (135.1 IP, 83 xFIP-) vs. Undecided (N/A)
Not unlike the major of a college junior who’ll definitely just end up getting an English degree, Houston’s starter for tonight’s game against Toronto is currently listed as “Undecided.” Per the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm designed to assess the aesthetic pleasure of baseball, however, the Astros’ lack of certainty on the matter seems to matter little. Because, regard: Toronto’s starter is compelling right-hander Marcus Stroman. And because, regard also: Toronto and Houston both possess non-zero odds of winning their respective divisions, qualifying for a wild-card spot, or none of the above.* In the end, of course, “none of the above” is what’s chosen for all of us.
Episode 672
Lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen is the guest on this edition of the pod, during which he provides scouting reports on prospects — like Philadelphia’s Dylan Cozens and Minnesota’s Zack Granite and the Yankees’ Kyle Higashioka — acquitted well by the most recent iteration of Chris Mitchell’s KATOH projection system; discusses a pair of notable 2017 draft prospects present at Under Armour’s recent prep showcase at Wrigley Field; and talks about the realities of “commanding to both sides of the plate.”
This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
A bevy of trades went down over the weekend, as this year’s trade deadline-season entered into full swing. Here are the prospects who changed teams the last couple of days, as evaluated by my newly updated KATOH system. KATOH denotes WAR forecast for first six years of player’s major-league career. KATOH+ uses similar methodology with consideration also for Baseball America’s rankings.
Frazier had been promoted to Triple-A a week ago after slashing a strong .276/.356/.469 with 13 steals at Double-A this year. He pairs a high walk rate with decent power and speed, making him one of the most promising offensive prospects in baseball. Despite possessing average speed, Frazier plays mostly the corner-outfield spots these days, and hasn’t graded out particularly well there defensively. This suggests most of his big-league value will come from his hitting. Still, considering he’s a 21-year-old who’s already mastered Double-A, his future looks bright.
The Marlins had to pay a decently high price for Andrew Cashner. Jon Morosi is unironically tweeting about the ongoing Jeremy Hellickson sweepstakes. It’s important to establish the market context in which the Orioles have now traded for Wade Miley. It’s been obvious for months the Orioles could use some help in the rotation. The farm system didn’t make it realistically possible for them to look at higher-level solutions. They’d have to settle for what they could afford. Wade Miley is what they could afford, with the Mariners getting Ariel Miranda in exchange. There’s no money changing hands. This is about as uncomplicated as a move can get, with Miley being tremendously dull and still presumably helpful.
That’s the thing about the Orioles. Even though they’re a first-place team, it’s a team that had issues. Recent results be damned, the Orioles, in theory, can hit. We all know they can relieve. The rotation has been bad behind Chris Tillman — so bad that Wade Miley is an improvement. There aren’t many contending teams that Miley would make meaningfully better, but that’s the Orioles’ burden and blessing.
The package netted by Brian Cashman and the Yankees in exchange for Andrew Miller is headlined by two big names in OF Clint Frazier and LHP Justus Sheffield (both of whom project as average-or-better regulars for me) and supplemented by two potential relievers in RHPs Ben Heller and J.P. Feyereisen.
Clint Frazier was the fifth-overall pick in the 2013 draft out of Loganville High School in Georgia. He was signed away from his commitment to Georgia with a $3.5 million bonus, the most lucrative bonus in Indians draft history. Frazier was a high-effort spark plug with elite bat speed, though he didn’t look like your typical high-upside prep draftee.
Before the draft, most organizations were correctly skeptical about Frazier’s long-term ability to play center field despite some of the run times he was posting (he ran a 6.6-second 60-yard dash at East Coast Pro) because of the way they anticipated his body to fill out. Frazier was listed at 5-foot-11, 185 pounds as an amateur but has grown into a listed 6-foot-1, 190, though he’s probably heavier than that. Despite his likely corner-only destiny, Frazier’s bat speed and advanced feel for hitting made him a worthy top-five selection, even if he had atypical physical projection.
Because of the superhuman circumference of his biceps and his generally muscular physique, Frazier is most often body-comped to Popeye the Sailor Man, a reference I hope doesn’t elude the youngest of our readers. Though he posts some plus run times to first base because of a natural jailbreak, he’s only about an average runner whose middling speed is masked by visible effort and good base-running instincts. Frazier’s speed and feel for center are enough that I think he’d be passable there in an emergency, but I wouldn’t advocate him playing there everyday. I think that, given his size and build just shy of age 22, Frazier is likely to slow down as he enters his prime. His arm strength should allow him to play in either outfield corner (though I think he fits best in left), where I believe he’ll be an average defender at maturity.
Frazier’s 80-grade bat speed has helped him generate a .278/.360/.452 career batting line. He’s hit despite the excessive loop his hands take back to the ball, a mechanical hiccup that I think causes his barrel to arrive late and robs him of the ability to pull the ball consistently. This could dilute his game power a bit, but Frazier is strong enough to muscle some of those balls out to right field anyway, and the new Yankee Stadium will be particularly kind to this flaw. Though his swing features a good bit of effort and Frazier has struggled some with strikeouts throughout his minor-league career, he still projects as an average Major League hitter. Again, the bat speed is the primary reason for this, but Frazier has shown that he has some barrel control and the ability to make adjustments in the middle of at-bats, as well. Reports on his makeup are glowing.
