Let’s Overanalyze Two Julio Urias Starts

I know it’s obvious, but it’s worth a reminder. The most important thing to consider before serving up a Julio Urias take is that he is 19 years old. Think about what you were doing as a 19-year-old. Think about what Julio Urias is doing as a 19-year-old. When Stephen Strasburg was 19, his competition was the Mountain West Conference. When Jacob deGrom was 19, he was a shortstop at Stetson University. Julio Urias has already struck out seven major league batters. He’s 19! That’s more strikeouts than literally every other active major league pitcher had when they were 19, aside from Felix Hernandez who may one day be enshrined in the Hall of Fame.

So Julio Urias is 19, and we must always keep that in mind, but he’s now been tasked twice with getting major league hitters out, and he hasn’t done a great job. He can be both unfathomably young and also ineffective at the same time — they aren’t mutually exclusive. The age isn’t an excuse; it just serves as context.

But we can have more context than age and results! How about the process? How’s the stuff? Ultimately, it’s the process that matters; the age will change and results can be wonky. Execute the process enough times and the results will follow. There’s still only so much we can learn from two games, but at the very least it gives us an excuse to analyze Julio Urias, which we’ve all been waiting for, and maybe we’ll see something to help quiet some of the alarm bells currently going off in Dodger Nation. We’ll observe some good, and we’ll observe some bad. We shouldn’t come way with a much different opinion of Urias’ future — two starts shouldn’t have moved the needle anyhow — but we’ll certainly come away with more information.

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NERD Game Scores for Friday, June 03, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at Texas | 20:05 ET
Walker (54.1 IP, 90 xFIP-) vs. Darvish (5.0 IP, 38 xFIP-)
Darvish returned this past Saturday from a Tommy John procedure and the subsequent rehab, recording his first major-league appearance since August of 2014. The results were almost embarrassingly positive. The right-hander produced a 7:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio against just 19 batters over 5.0 innings while also posting an average fastball velocity more than 1 mph harder than his previously established levels. With a view towards best representing the sort of pleasures facilitated by Yu Darvish, the remainder of this brief entry will be delivered by means of video footage — a medium the reader will recognize as easier to consume and largely better than dumb words.

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: Seattle.

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Madison Bumgarner’s Offensive Plan

Madison Bumgarner hit another home run. Sure, it was against Aaron Blair, and sure, this just keeps Bumgarner tied with Jason Heyward, but, Aaron Blair is a quality prospect in the major leagues, and this keeps Bumgarner tied with Jason Heyward. Bumgarner apparently figured out hitting in 2014. Maybe he got bored because he’d already mastered pitching. Since then, over just shy of 200 trips to the plate, Bumgarner has batted .234/.265/.451, good for a 101 wRC+. The next-best offensive pitcher has been Zack Greinke, with a wRC+ of 65. On the mound, Madison Bumgarner is Madison Bumgarner, and at the plate, Madison Bumgarner is Jonathan Schoop. The Giants’ advantage is that no other pitcher hits like a powerful second baseman.

This table is funny to me:

Homer/Batted Ball%, 2014 – 2016
Batter HR Batted HR/Batted%
Giancarlo Stanton 76 653 11.6%
Franklin Gutierrez 20 172 11.6%
Chris Davis 83 764 10.9%
Trevor Story 14 131 10.7%
Miguel Sano 29 272 10.7%
Zach Walters 10 94 10.6%
Chris Carter 74 699 10.6%
Gregory Bird 11 105 10.5%
Adam Duvall 21 204 10.3%
Madison Bumgarner 11 108 10.2%

The name right after Bumgarner is Kyle Schwarber. When Bumgarner has hit a ball between the lines, he’s had basically the same rate of home runs as Kyle Schwarber. You know the image you have of Kyle Schwarber. Bumgarner has made that kind of contact.

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Jung Ho Kang Passed the Fastball Test

The worry is always the same whenever an Asian hitter comes over. The hitter wouldn’t be getting the chance in the first place were it not for an outstanding performance, but there’s always the question of how the hitter is going to handle major-league fastballs. In part, this might just come from arrogance, but it’s not without its legitimacy. Many Asian hitters have high leg kicks that work as timing mechanisms, and more importantly, there just isn’t a lot of big velocity in South Korea or Japan. The hitters are mostly unproven against the stuff you find in almost every big-league bullpen. So, it’s fair to wonder how a player might adjust.

What we already knew from last season: Overall, Jung Ho Kang adjusted. Kang was so successful, in fact, opportunities have been given to other Korean hitters. Because Kang did so well, it won’t surprise you to learn he did well against fastballs. I’m only writing this because of how Kang has been pitched this year since coming back from injury. Kang has worked beyond the fastball test. Pitchers would rather let him see almost anything else.

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This Post Is About Sabermetrics Day in Staten Island, June 19

SABR Banner

This brief post about Sabermetrics Day on June 19th at Richmond County Bank Ballpark — home of the Yankees’ New York-Penn League affiliate in Staten Island — is designed to apprise the public of certain, possibly useful information.

First, one finds that the Staten Island Yankees have recently announced the participants in the Q&A Panel scheduled to occur from 2:00 to 3:30pm. From the club’s press release:

Dave Cameron – Managing editor and senior writer for FanGraphs; Owner/Operator of U.S.S. Mariner; Former contributor to ESPN, The Wall Street Journal, Baseball Prospectus.

Carson Cistulli – Senior writer for FanGraphs; Creator of NERD, SCOUT, and historical GBz%; Former editor of NotGraphs and writer for The Hardball Times.

Jonah Keri – Writer for CBS Sports and Sports Illustrated; New York Times best-selling author of Up, Up, and Away and The Extra 2%.

Emma Span – Senior Editor for Sports Illustrated; Author of 90% of the Game is Half Mental: And Other Tales from the Edge of Baseball Fandom.

Dan Szymborski – Baseball analyst for ESPN; Founder of Baseball Think Factory; Creator of ZiPS projection system.

Ben Lindbergh – Staff writer for FiveThirtyEight; Co-host of Effectively Wild; Co-Author of The Only Rule Is it Has to Work; Former editor-in-chief for Baseball Prospectus; Former staff writer for Grantland.

Meg Rowley – Writer for Baseball Prospectus and SB Nation’s Lookout Landing.

That same press release carries a combination of bad and also good news for those interested in gaining access to the event. Once again, from the communiqué de presse:

Tickets for the VIP Q&A Panel are sold out. However, there are still tickets available for the Statgeek Picnic featuring the full roster of writers and analysts. For the a lineup of confirmed special guests or for more information, visit siyanks.com/sabermetrics.

To purchase tickets, click HERE using promo code “STATS”


Effectively Wild Episode 896: Beware of Wearables?

Ben and Sam banter about Matt Albers’ double and a Stompers success, then discuss the privacy/performance implications of new tracking technology employed by big league teams.


A Michael Pineda Update

Sometimes, you write about something and the commenters unlock something that started in your piece and ends up somewhere more definitive. We were looking for the problem with Michael Pineda earlier today, and it looked like his release points were a bit off and his stuff a bit flat, but not in any crazy way.

But then people pointed out that he’s throwing his fastball lower in the zone, and that it has less sink. And also that he’s been way worse with men on base.

Well, if you take that second part, it really looks like he’s struggling from the stretch.

So I did a simple query for his movement and location with runners on and with the bases empty, and there differences are fairly stark.

First, with nobody on.

Michael Pineda Velocity, Movement, Location and Release (Bases Empty)
Pitch Velocity Horizontal Vertical Crosses Plate Vertically Release Point
FC 93.2 1.2 7.1 2.68 6.65
FF 93.1 -2.4 8.5 2.33 6.73
CH 87.7 -7.5 6.3 1.81 6.86
SL 85.4 1.1 1.0 1.27 6.60

Now, with runners on.

Michael Pineda Velocity, Movement, Location and Release (Runners On)
Pitch Velocity Horizontal Vertical Crosses Plate Vertically Release Point
FC 93.7 1.0 7.7 2.68 6.49
FF 93.5 -2.6 8.7 2.36 6.66
CH 87.9 -8.2 6.8 1.82 6.76
SL 85.8 1.1 1.2 1.85 6.57

On average, the throws harder and from a lower release point when there are runners on. Understandable, perhaps, he’s trying to get out of the inning. At first, though, a different of an inch on the release point seems like it’s just another small thing that could be meaningful or not.

But look at where the slider cross the plate with men on base. It’s a full seven inches higher! When the bases empty, his average slider crosses the plate nearly three inches off the bottom of the plate. With runners on base, it crosses the plate four inches above the bottom of the strike zone on average. That’s a big difference!

And yet… it’s once again not something that’s necessarily mechanical. This could be the effect of confidence in the numbers.

I once talked to Ryan Vogelsong about why he was better with runners on base than he ‘should be,’ and he said “the biggest thing is… not giving up hits with runners on base.” He didn’t tell me at the time, but it looks like he, like many Giants, was willing to give up a walk with runners on instead of giving up a hit.

Maybe Michael Pineda could take that philosophy to the mound today, especially with his slider.


James Paxton Was Horrible and Promising

The Mariners started James Paxton on Wednesday because they had to put Felix Hernandez on the disabled list with a hurt leg. That’s bad! Paxton proceeded to get lit up, by literally the San Diego Padres. That’s worse! Here, watch Paxton give up an opposite-field dinger to Wil Myers:

Familiar enough. Here’s last year’s Paxton giving up a dinger to Eduardo Escobar:

There’s nothing good about giving up eight runs in less than four innings. It’s even worse when that happens in a pitcher-friendly environment, against a pitcher-friendly opponent. Paxton was so ineffective the Mariners won’t commit to giving him another go, even though Felix is down a few weeks. By results, Wednesday was a nightmare.

By process? By process, it was less nightmarish. There were actually positive signs. Based on everything but the results, Paxton showed promising skills, and the Mariners should want for him to get another opportunity.

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National League Contact-Management Update

Another page has been ripped off of the calendar, and sample sizes are finally getting to a point where they actually matter. This, then, represents a good occasion to take a first look at starting-pitcher contact-management trends. Today, it’s the National League.

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The Way Kyle Hendricks Is Exactly Like Clayton Kershaw

When you think of Clayton Kershaw, you probably think of some of the best pitchers in baseball history. He’s certainly earned the right to be talked about among guys like Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and Sandy Koufax, even if he still has a long way to go before he matches them in career value. At the very least, you probably think of the game’s other aces, like Jake Arrieta, Noah Syndergaard, Chris Sale, and David Price. You should also think of Kyle Hendricks.

Kyle Hendricks?! I can hear you say through the internet’s system of tubes. Why would we think of Kyle Hendricks when we think of Clayton Kershaw? Well, they have something in common other than being major-league starting pitchers in the 2010s. Kershaw is having an amazing run due in large part to his otherworldly strikeout and walk numbers. Hendricks can’t compete with those marks, but he’s doing something else extremely Kershawian lately. He’s mixing a low fly-ball rate with a very high infield-fly rate.

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