A quick check of the pitching leaderboards for qualified starters reveals an unsettling fact for the Red Sox: David Price has the second-worst ERA in baseball. Cue the alarm bells! The Sox paid for an ace, and instead, they’ve gotten the exact opposite of an ace — as far as outcomes are concerned, at least. Seven starts into the season, some element of worry has to be merited, right? The answer is yes, of course, because an ERA of almost seven for a No. 1 starter after over a month of games has to be worrying. Price has been terrible, and if you’re worrying about him or would like to, that’s probably merited. The reason why we’re here is to look into whether his performance thus far is grounds to for worry in the future, as well: though Price can’t get any of his clunkers back from the past seven starts, we can certainly look into whether those clunkers might presage future clunkers.

First, let’s start with the bad news, because it’s always better to end with good news. The bad news has been right there in front of us in every single one of Price’s starts this season, flashed up on a board in the stadium or on our TV screens during every pitch: his velocity is down. Way down. Lowest it’s ever been. That’s worrisome not only because velocity loss leads to a smaller margin of error, but also because velocity loss is the most visible indicator of injury. The drop captured in the red box in the chart below — depicting Price’s velocity by month from 2011 to 2016 — ought usually to inspire some concern (chart courtesy of Brooks Baseball):

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Matz (28.2 IP, 70 xFIP-) vs. Kazmir (31.2 IP, 103 xFIP-)
If the season ended right now, that’d be unusual. Because the 2016 schedule clearly dictates that games ought to be played through September, is why. And because literally millions of consumers have purchased tickets to contests scheduled for May 10th and beyond, is also why. If the season ended right now, it’d probably be the result either of some emergent issue within baseball itself — along the lines of a strike — or, alternatively, the product of a national crisis that would render the country’s taste for diversion either impractical or vulgar or both. If the season ended right now, it would likely mean that a lot of people’s lives had changed for the worse. In any case, if the season really did end right now, Mets left-hander Steven Matz would possess the second-best WAR mark among all rookie pitchers — behind only the Dodgers’ Kenta Maeda, who’s a rookie in one sense but less of a rookie in another sense.

Read the rest of this entry »

One can be excused for having lost track of the many twists and turns in the long-running broadcast-rights-fee dispute between the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals. Over the past four years, the two teams have waged an extensive legal battle over how much the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN) ought to be paying the Nationals for the team’s local television rights, with both sides capable of pointing to various victories and defeats along the way.

For those interested in a longer recap of the many ins and outs of the dispute, we have previously covered all of the gory details here on a number of occasions over the last several years. In short, though, under the terms of the 2005 agreement in which Baltimore allowed the Nationals to move to Washington, D.C., the teams agreed that they would renegotiate the television rights fees that MASN — the vast majority of which is owned by the Orioles — would have to pay the Nationals every five years.

Unable to reach an accord on the Nationals’ rights fees for the 2012-2016 time period, the teams eventually took the dispute to an arbitration heard by Major League Baseball’s Revenue Sharing Definitions Committee (RSDC), which ultimately awarded the Nationals $60 million per year in broadcast rights fees from MASN. Dissatisfied with this outcome, MASN and Baltimore then took the matter to court, successfully persuading a New York state judge (Judge Lawrence Marks) to overturn the RSDC’s arbitration decision late last year. In particular, Judge Marks ruled that because the Nationals’ legal counsel in the dispute — the Proskauer Rose law firm — had previously represented several of the RSDC members’ teams, the firm’s participation in the arbitration created the appearance of potential bias by the RSDC in favor of Washington.

As I noted this past December, both sides then appealed Judge Marks’ ruling to the court of appeals. The Nationals argued that the trial court had erred by throwing out the arbitration award; MASN and the Orioles, conversely, have asserted that Judge Marks should have permanently disqualified the RSDC from rehearing the dispute. That appeal remains ongoing.

Washington, however, believing that MASN has been underpaying it for years, is not content to sit back and wait for the appellate process to run its course. Instead, the team is now asking Judge Marks to order the Orioles to re-arbitrate the matter before the RSDC, even while the appeal continues. MASN and the Orioles, meanwhile, have unsurprisingly opposed this request, countering last week by asking the trial court to postpone any future arbitration in the dispute pending the outcome of the appeal.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam discuss Bartolo Colon’s first career home run, the Cubs’ continued success and willingness to walk Bryce Harper, and The Good Wife’s series finale.

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at New York AL | 20:05 ET
Wright (32.1 IP, 105 xFIP-) vs. Severino (25.2 IP, 91 xFIP-)
Given both the width and also the breadth of the world — and all the possibilities contained within it — there’s a non-zero chance that someone on this earth has declared that “The only thing less appealing than watching one Red Sox-Yankees game is watching two Red Sox-Yankees games in a row.” Of course, such a statment is necessarily false. Because, regard: if one were to compose a list of unappealing things and yet omit a number of the more serious dermatological conditions — many of which Job himself would regard as a bit far-fetched — then one would have composed a flawed list. Moreover, one is forced to concede that a contest featuring by Steven Wright (a knuckleballer who’s experienced success this year so far) and Luis Severino (who’s produced one of the highest average fastball velocities) — that such a contest possesses some merit.

Read the rest of this entry »

Brewers pitching prospect Jon Perrin issued his first free pass of the season on Friday night. Accompanying that solitary walk on his stat sheet are 47 strikeouts and a 2.50 ERA over 36 innings of work. Pitching for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, Perrin has essentially been the Midwest League equivalent of Greg Maddux in his prime.

His long-term goal isn’t necessarily to be the next Maddux. Nor is it to be the next Josh Tomlin, a more realistic control-and-command comparable. Perrin aspires to be an attorney.

The 22-year-old right-hander graduated from Oklahoma State before being drafted by Milwaukee last year in the 27th round. He took his LSAT over the winter, and if he gets an acceptance letter from his target school there’s a good chance he’ll bid baseball adieu. Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at New York AL | 13:05 ET
Price (36.2 IP, 66 xFIP-) vs. Eovaldi (29.2 IP, 80 xFIP-)
For a number years — like when he was a Dodgers prospect and then when he was a starter for Miami and then during his first season with the Yankees, as well — for a number of years it’s seemed as though Nathan Eovaldi should prevent runs harder. There’s a strong correlation between arm speed and success, and Eovaldi possess the former in great volume. Regard: of the 316 pitchers to have recorded 100-plus innings as a starter since 2011 (when he debuted), Eovaldi has produced the fourth-highest average fastball velocity. Ahead of him? Only Noah Syndergaard, Yordano Ventura, and Gerrit Cole — in that order. Why this is relevant now is because Eolvadi, during his first five starts, has posted a strikeout rate over seven points greater than his career average. The reason, in no small part: a splitter which he’s emmploying more often — and with which he’s recording more whiffs — than ever.

Read the rest of this entry »

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
Read the rest of this entry »

Major League Baseball has taken steps toward becoming a truly global game in recent years. Cuban players have joined their Venezuelan, Dominican and other Latin American counterparts in making a significant impact on today’s game, and talent from the Far East, particularly from the Japanese and Korean Leagues, has made its presence felt as well.

This year’s most heralded Japanese rookie is Kenta Maeda, who signed a long-term deal with the Dodgers this past offseason. After concerns were raised following a medical examination, he signed a deal that was heavily discounted from the originally negotiated terms, paying him $25 million over an eight-year period. This put the Dodgers in a fantastic position: a low-risk, potentially high-reward scenario. One month in, the Dodgers simply have to be thrilled as Maeda’s posted a 3-1, 1.41 mark with a 28/6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 32 innings.

Sure, the season remains young, and the sample sizes are small, but it’s not too early to form some early hypotheses regarding whether Maeda is for real. Today, let’s use granular batted-ball data, examining his plate-appearance frequency and production by BIP type data, to see how Maeda is getting it done, and whether we can expect his success to continue moving forward. Read the rest of this entry »

In last night’s fifth inning, the Rockies threw punches and punches until the Giants were frontless. They scored 13 runs, which, as was noted at Purple Row, was a team record for runs scored in an inning. Oh, did I mention that this game was in San Francisco, and not in Denver? Because it was, which makes it all the more surprising. Let’s walk back through their blockbuster night, and use it to show what the Rockies are doing right this season.

First, let’s put this game into some context. Here are all the teams who have scored 15 or more runs in a game at AT&T Park, which as you probably know has been open since 2000.

15+ Runs Scored by Single Team, AT&T Park History

Date	Tm	Runs	Opp	Runs	Barry Bonds?
5/6/2016	COL	17	SFG	7	No
7/10/2015	SF	15	PHI	2	No
9/13/2014	LAD	17	SF	0	No
8/31/2014	SF	15	MIL	5	No
8/24/2010	SF	16	CIN	5	No
9/24/2008	COL	15	SF	6	No
7/23/2005	FLO	16	SF	4	No
9/3/2004	SF	18	ARI	7	Yes
4/9/2003	SF	15	SD	11	Yes
5/24/2000	SF	18	MON	0	Yes

SOURCE: Baseball-Reference Play Index

As you can see, this doesn’t happen very often — happens even less when Barry Bonds hasn’t been involved. For reference, over the same time span, a team has scored 15-plus runs at Fenway Park 37 times. Across the bay at whatever Oakland’s ballpark is called now, it’s happened 16 times. At Camden Yards, it’s happened 27 times. Runs are simply harder to come by in games affected by the marine layer.

Read the rest of this entry »