The Inning That Was Everything Baseball

You’re in a pickle, see. The Devil wants to take your soul, and he’s pretty intent on doing it, but he’ll leave you be on one condition: in the span of one hour, you are to teach him everything there is to understand about the game of baseball. Up to this point the game’s been over his head, and he’d like to know what it’s all about, but he also has only so much patience, especially with you. If you can convey to him that special essence of the sport, you’re free to go, spared an eternal damnation. If not, you lose. You know what’s at stake. Of course you do. Your mind races.

Or, your mind would’ve raced. Before Wednesday, before Game 5 between the Rangers and the Blue Jays. You would’ve thought about explaining the rules. You would’ve thought about reviewing certain eras, and certain Hall-of-Fame players. You would’ve thought about going through the physical motions. But now — now — this is an easy situation to fix. You show the Devil Game 5’s seventh inning. He’s gotta have the Internet somewhere. You show him the entirety of the seventh inning, from start to finish. When it’s done, and the second bench-clearing incident is broken up, you’ve got six minutes to take questions.

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Effectively Wild Episode 744: The Texas-Toronto Seventh-Inning Insanity Draft

Ben and Sam draft their favorite moments from the unbelievable seventh inning of Blue Jays-Rangers Game Five.


The Bizarre (Legal) Play That Almost Started a Riot

When Russell Martin’s throw back to the pitcher hit Shin-Soo Choo, and Rougned Odor raced home to score the go-ahead run, the pages of baseball’s rule book fluttered open across America and Canada. A stunned silence in the park hid the grinding of gears behind the masks, and in baseball’s offices — was that strange, strange play… legal?

Yes, it turns out. To the consternation of the fans, who began to litter the field with debris. Twitter, the announcers, the fans — it was bedlam.

But investigating the rules that led to this play, and any rules that could clean up a play like this in the future, brings us to the never-ending unintended consequences that come with any alteration of the rule book.

First, the play.

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Neverending Footage of Jose Bautista’s Bat Flip

Because Homer provides little in the way of psychological commentary and also because Achilles isn’t a real person, it’s hard to know precisely how the latter feels during Book XXI of the Iliad while avenging the death of Patroclus by filling the River Scamander with so many Trojan dead that the river itself is compelled to assume human form and reprimand the hero, as follows:

“Achilles… My fair waters are now filled with corpses, nor can I find any channel by which I may pour myself into the sea for I am choked with dead, and yet you go on mercilessly slaying. I am in despair… trouble me no further.”

As I say, it’s difficult to understand precisely what sort of redemptive pleasure Achilles experiences during that episode — but also less difficult, now, for those of us who have witnessed Jose Bautista (first) homering and (then) hurling his bat into whatever lays beyond the eternal mise en scene.

Footage robbed without shame from Gregor Chisholm of the Internet.


Rating the Playoff Teams

The Cubs won the third-most games in baseball. In the first round — a round some people don’t even consider the playoffs — they eliminated the team that won the second-most games in baseball. Just Tuesday, in the other first round, they eliminated the team that won the very most games in baseball. Very good accomplishment! Exciting times for the Cubs. It makes it worth wondering: who’s really the best at the moment?

We know that the playoffs don’t always ultimately crown the best team in baseball. There’s just way too much room for randomness, and sometimes superior teams do get toppled. Really, it’s part of the fun. But at the same time, that “best team” label is more complicated than it might appear. Because: when? If you’re trying to figure out the best team, do you mean the best team overall, or the best team at the moment, or what? The Cardinals were just the only team in baseball to win 100 games. They also went into the playoffs without, say, Carlos Martinez, or a healthy Yadier Molina. So what should one make of the playoff Cardinals, relative to the overall regular-season Cardinals?

This is at risk of going too long. I tried to rate the playoff teams. And I mean the teams as they’re built today. I tried to rate the best baseball teams, right now.

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Job Posting: TruMedia Networks Principal / Senior / QA Software Engineer

Position: TruMedia Networks Principal / Senior / QA Software Engineer

Location: Boston (remote possible)

Description:
TruMedia is looking for Principal, Senior and QA Software Engineers to help build tier one sports analytics and scouting solutions. The ideal candidates will be passionate sports fans, have a strong interest in data science and have the ability to work on the full software stack with a focus on web development and user interface design. Interfaces will be needed for web based solutions as well as mobile platforms.

Why TruMedia?

  • TruMedia is a fast growing sports analytics firm with a focus on changing the way we all look at sports.
  • TruMedia’s clients include world class brands like ESPN and TruMedia works directly with both MLB teams and NFL teams.
  • TruMedia is making it’s own path and we love to have fun as we innovate.
  • Everyone’s opinion matters and we look forward to working with people that are excited to share their insights.
  • Flexible work environment.

Qualifications:

  • 2+ years experience developing web applications in a software engineering team.
  • Working with engineers, designers, third parties, and stakeholders.
  • JavaScript
  • HTML/CSS
  • JQuery
  • Windows and Linux
  • MySQL

Additional Usefull Skills:

  • Analytics
  • Statistics
  • Business Intelligence
  • AWS
  • D3
  • Node.JS
  • Express
  • Angular, Backbone, or other MVC frameworks
  • HTML5
  • MongoDB
  • IOS/Android Apps (including video playback)
  • Video Players
  • Experience working with a remote team

Compensation:
These positions are compensated. Full-time is preferred.

To Apply:
Please email TruMedia.


Marcus Stroman’s Strange Breaking Balls

Here’s a weird thing about Marcus Stroman’s slider: it has more drop than his curveball. We still call it his slider because it goes four miles per hour faster than his curve, but the curve has slowly tilted sideways. Or, to say it better, Stroman’s other pitches have tilted downwards and the curve has stayed about the same.

Check out Stroman’s release points. For every pitch other than the curve and the sinker, Stroman is an inch or two more over the top this year.

Brooksbaseball-Chart-38

In related news, all of Stroman’s pitches — other than the curve — are dropping more this year.

Marcus Stroman Vertical Movement by Year
Year Fourseam Sinker Change Slider Curve Cutter
2013 9.1 0.0 6.4 -0.7 -3.9 4.3
2014 9.2 3.3 3.9 -1.4 -2.3 4.9
2015 8.6 1.8 3.6 -2.0 -1.1 4.0
SOURCE: BrooksBaseball.net
Movement = PFx_z, or vertical ‘drop’ in inches

Could this just be mucking with classification systems? Maybe. The two pitches are only three mph apart. Let’s look at the movement on both of his breaking balls in one place and see if they’ve moved from last year to this year, then. Use the filter to change years.

Yup. The slider drops more than the curve, and the curve is more horizontal this year. He’s also using the slider more this year, and the curve less. But the whiff and ground-ball rates on the curve are better than they are for the slider.

Going more over the top has increased the ground-ball rate on all but his slider, and that may be why he’s pitching today. Not going over the top as much on the curve has made that pitch more of a frisbee than a round-house curveball.

Maybe he’s still getting his feet under him, and things will change again in the future. But for now, Marcus Stroman may be the only pitcher in baseball that has a slider that drops more than his curveball. PITCHf/x classifies his pitches a little differently, but we can forgive that system. He’s got a strange mix.


Clayton Kershaw Silences Mets, Narratives

The stories were silly to begin with. That the best pitcher in the world was somehow hardwired to falter when the calendar flipped from September to October. That the same hitters who floundered against Clayton Kershaw throughout the regular season would feast come playoff time.

The seven dominant innings Kershaw hurled against the Mets on Tuesday shouldn’t go a long way in changing anyone’s opinion of what Kershaw can do under the bright lights, only because the 50 innings prior shouldn’t have, either.

I probably haven’t told you anything you didn’t already know. Clayton Kershaw is incredible. At times, in the postseason, he’s appeared as something less than incredible, but lately, he’s looked more like himself. Even in his Game 1 loss to New York, which oddly seemed to fuel the anti-Kershaw postseason narrative, he was great, making what amounted to one real mistake to his apparent-kryptonite, Daniel Murphy.

Though the outcome of Game 1 was the opposite of what Kershaw desired, he pitched well, and so on the surface, it didn’t appear that much needed to change. Of course, that’s just the surface, and Kershaw goes well beyond the surface. Kershaw and catcher A.J. Ellis, that is.

Ellis contributed an enlightening article to the Player’s Tribune last month, concerning the act of catching Kershaw and Zack Greinke and the way each prepares for their starts. Pulling from that article:

“Before each of Clayton’s starts, he and I, with pitching coach Rick Honeycutt, sit down together two hours before the game. Clayton dictates that entire meeting, running through the starting lineup in detail. ‘Here’s what I want to do … ‘ Hitter after hitter.

Usually he’s spot-on with his approach and it matches with my scouting and game plan. Occasionally, I’ll throw in my two cents, but I’d better make damn sure my two cents fits with what he wants to do, because otherwise he’ll snap at me. ‘I’m not doing that. That makes no sense.'”

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 10/14/15

11:43
Dave Cameron: Happy American League Elimination Day. Two pretty exciting games on tap for this afternoon that we can discuss, or we can cover the Cubs vs Mets/Dodgers upcoming NLCS, or talk about Chase Utley some more, or we can all make fun of Kiley on his last day working at FG.

11:56
Dave Cameron: Alright, we’ll start a couple of minutes early today.

11:56
Comment From dom
thoughts on DeGrom warming up last night?

11:57
Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t really call what he did warming up. There’s a difference between just throwing off a mound and getting ready to come into a game. Having him just play catch probably isn’t a big deal, and it doesn’t look like he ever really threw like he was preparing to pitch.

11:57
Comment From Kris
Could the Blue Jays go Stroman through 5, Price 6 & 7, Sanchez 8, Osuna 9? Only thing that could seemingly rationalize pitching Price in relief in game 4

11:58
Dave Cameron: I don’t think they use him today. I bet the hope is Stroman for 6 or 7, then Loup against a tough LHB, then the RH relievers to close it out.

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2015-16: Day 3 of 15

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the giant and large 2015-16 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, including four notable second basemen and then David Freese.

Other Players: Alex Avila / Chris Davis / Stephen Drew / Chris Iannetta / Kelly Johnson / Justin Morneau / Mike Napoli / Dioner Navarro / Geovany Soto / Matt Wieters.

***

Howie Kendrick (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Kendrick:

  • Has averaged 561 PA and 3.1 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 3.4 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 2.1 WAR in 495 PA in 2015.
  • Is projected to record 2.3 WAR per 600 PA**.
  • Is entering his age-32 season.
  • Made $9.5M in 2015, as part of deal signed in January 2012.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**Prorated version of final updated 2015 Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Kendrick.

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