Park Effects

Riding the coattails of an absolutely scorching start from shortstop Rafael Furcal, the Dodgers found themselves with a 19-14 record on May 13th, their best record so far this season. Furcal got hurt, landed on the DL, and the Dodgers have gone a paltry 8-14 in his absence. Though impossible to say with 100% confidence that their success rests in the hands/bat/glove (depending on the metaphor) of their shortstop he clearly seems to be missed from that lineup.

More of their struggles can be attributed to the starting rotation. Take a look at these SP/RP splits:

Starters: 13-23, 4.43 ERA, 307 IP, 113 BB, 217 K, 1.48 WHIP
Relievers: 14-5, 3.08 ERA,178.1 IP, 67 BB, 161 K, 1.28 WHIP

Need some more? How about these:

Starters: -1.22 WPA, -5.95 BRAA, 1.92 K/BB
Relievers: 1.55 WPA, 24.12 BRAA, 2.40 K/BB

Derek Lowe and Brad Penny have underperformed thus far and the good starts from Chad Billingsley and rookie Hiroki Kuroda have not been able to cancel them out.

Interestingly enough, one of their top guns out of the bullpen this year has been Chan Ho Park. Yes, that Chan Ho Park, the one who elicits “he’s still around??” reactions. Other than Hong-Chih Kuo, Park has the highest BRAA of the entire pitching staff.

In 16 games, including one start, Park is 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA; however, his 5.14 FIP suggests he has been very lucky. In fact, just JC Romero of the Phillies has a bigger ERA-FIP differential in the league. He has surrendered 32 hits in 33.2 innings, both walking and striking out 16 batters. Despite just a .252 BAA and .262 BABIP, the walks have helped lead to a 1.43 WHIP. It does not seem to matter how many runners Park lets reach base, though, because he currently has an 89.9% LOB. Excluding his one start that numbers jumps up to 93.6%, placing him sixth in the National League amongst relievers with at least 20.0 IP.

Park is throwing harder as well. Comparing 2005-2006 to 2008—he only made one start in 2007—his fastball is up over two mph; his slider is up over two mph; his curveball has increased by one mph; and his changeup is up over two mph.

ERA is a fickle stat for relievers since a couple bad outings can provide a season-long taint on the number. It is not very likely Park will sustain such a high percentage of stranded runners, meaning his success has its best chance of continuing if less runners reach base. Since he is not getting hit around too much this decrease in baserunners needs to come primarily from his walks. If he manages a 1.43+ WHIP all season it is more likely the LOB% will drop, more runners will score, and his ERA-FIP discrepancy won’t be as high because both will be in the below average range.