Positional Power Rankings: Relief Pitchers (#16-30)

For an explanation of this series, please read the introductory post. The data is a hybrid projection of the ZIPS and Steamer systems with playing time determined through depth charts created by our team of authors. The rankings are based on aggregate projected WAR for each team at a given position.

Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve been going position by position around the sport. We finish up the series with bullpens today, but it’s worth noting that these projections follow a slightly different structure than the rest.

For one, projecting specific innings totals for relievers is a taller task than projecting playing time for position players or even innings totals for starters. There are numerous outside factors impacting bullpen usage, including things that we can’t really predict like the distribution of runs scored and allowed by each team. One team might play in a bunch of blowouts and rarely need their closer, while another could end up in a continuous stream of one run games and ask their best few arms to carry a lion’s share of the workload. Beyond that, the health of a team’s rotation is going to be a factor, as some relievers are also reserve starters who might be pressed into duty mid-season. And the depth charts are continually evolving, as injuries and acquisitions move guys into differing roles that come with different usage patterns.

So, for the relievers, we’ve simply assigned IP totals to each slot on a depth chart. Closers and primary setup men get 65 innings each, with the 3rd/4th relievers getting 55 innings each, and then the rest have their innings allocated in descending order according to their placement on the depth chart. And, in order to make each team’s total number of innings pitched (both starters and relievers) equal out to 1,458, we’ve added in a set for each team that makes up the missing innings in the projections. The performance projection is the same for each team, and is set to be around -0.1 WAR per 100 innings, on the assumption that the 10th or 11th reliever a team uses throughout the season is probably a little bit below replacement level. The statline in the table is just there as a placeholder – those numbers aren’t actually affecting the calculation beyond just setting innings equal and being included in the WAR sum.

Also, since we don’t have separate ZIPS/Steamer projections for guys as starters and relievers, guys who were projected as starters but are going to pitch in relief will likely be under-forecast. Aroldis Chapman, for instance, is getting his starter projections prorated to reliever innings totals, and he’ll almost certainly pitch better in relief than he was projected to do as a starter. There aren’t a lot of those types, but for guys like that, adjust their numbers upwards accordingly.

Oh, and we’ve mentioned this on the other lists, but it is worth emphasizing here – the gap between many teams is so slim that you shouldn’t read too much into a team’s placement in the ordinal rank. The gap between #12 and #22 is +0.7 WAR. That’s no difference at all, really. There are good bullpens, okay bullpens, and a couple of bad bullpens, but don’t get too caught up in whether one team is a few spots ahead of another team. With margins this small, the specific placement on the list is mostly irrelevant.

On to the list.

#16 Dodgers

Will Kenley Jansen stay healthy? He is one of the best relievers in the game — in a league with Craig Kimbrel, even — when healthy, but a heart condition has kept him out of action for parts of the last two seasons. One has to imagine the Dodgers would not have invested so heavily in Brandon League if not for the concerns surrounding Jansen.

For now, though, Jansen is healthy, and the League-Jansen tandem — in whatever order — should be one of the most imposing combinations to face in the final two innings. Can the rest of the bullpen get leads to them? Ronald Belisario was sharp in 2012 but horrible in 2011. J.P. Howell was great in 2009 and 2010 but has struggled since. Matt Guerrier only pitched 14 innings last year and was mediocre the two seasons prior. Beyond that, depth is cobbled together from former starters and journeymen.

If one or two of the depth pitchers can step up and give Don Mattingly a reliable option, this bullpen can look very good. If not, and if Kenley Jansen or Brandon League gets hurt, the floor is precipitously low.

#17 Angels

Here we go again with Madson. Thought to be completely healthy over the winter, Madson is now expected to miss at least the first month of the season. He is throwing off a mound, but there is no definitive timetable for his return. And the Angels do need him to return as quickly as possible, for while they have capable pitchers in Burnett, Frieri and Downs, the herd thins quickly, and this trio isn’t exactly the most durable. Burnett has only tossed 60 innings once in the past five seasons; Downs twice. But that may be giving Downs a bit too much credit — in three of the past four seasons, he has failed to reach 55 innings pitched. Furthermore, both Burnett and Downs have fairly large platoon splits, and are not the pitchers you want on the mound in a high-leverage situation against a right-handed hitter.

Frieri is better suited for that work, but then, he’s no sure thing either. His walk rate was in the bottom 25 among qualified relievers last season, and while he strikes out plenty of hitters as well, he leaves himself less margin for error with all the free passes. Aside from them, there is the usual parade of failed starters and organizational soldiers, although Cordero’s comeback could prove mildly entertaining for a couple of weeks. Hurry back, Ryan.

#18 Nationals

This bullpen will be a good deal better in practice than this ranking gives them credit for, in large part because their starting pitching will make their lack of depth a non-factor. The back-end of Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen and Tyler Cippard is beyond reproach and that trio will handle the bulk of the important situations in Washington this year.

Soriano, the new addition, was largely excellent in replacing Mariano Rivera last year, and moving out of Yankee Stadium and into the National League and pitcher-friendly Nationals Park should help him. He allowed more home runs per nine innings as a Yankee than he did anywhere else. Outside of a rough 2011 (98 ERA-), Soriano hasn’t allowed an ERA- above 75 in a full season since 2002, his rookie year.

Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard both have proven they have closer stuff over the past few years as well. All three are top-tier relievers, and the Nationals will be handing leads — and therefore important situations — to them, not to the depth guys this system punishes them for lacking. Expect this bullpen to be better than 18th overall.

#19 Orioles

Baltimore’s tremendous success last season can be credited in large part to their bullpen. The trio of Jim Johnson, Pedro Strop and Darren O’Day was tremendous all season and particularly in clutch situations. As explained here, I don’t think they will repeat, if only because such greatness is impossible for anybody to attain twice.

Can Jim Johnson succeed despite allowing constant contact? Danny Kolb is the only other pitcher to record 10 more saves than strikeouts in a season, as Johnson did last year. Can Pedro Strop succeed despite poor strikeout and walk numbers? Can Darren O’Day keep getting left-handers out? If even the answer to one or two of these questions is no, the Orioles bullpen is more of a league-average unit than the league-leading one it was last season.

Troy Patton has shown to be an elite control reliever over the past two seasons, but the rest of the bullpen is iffy. Ayala, Matusz, Johnson, and Hunter were all palatable last year but have limited track records of success. There’s enough to like to keep this unit around the league average, but the floor is low enough to limit the ranking to No. 19.

#20 Cubs

Carlos Marmol is far more infuriating and frustrating than bad. Even last year, when his walk rate ballooned to 7.32, he managed a 3.42 ERA and 3.98 FIP — not great by any means, but competent. His slider is still nearly impossible to make contact with, and his strikeouts will keep him viable as a reliever.

The question, then, is the quality of Japanese import Kyuji Fujikawa. His numbers in the Japanese league are ineffable. Not only did he strike out 10 more batters per nine innings than he walked, but he also allowed a paltry 5.4 hits per nine innings over his six seasons. His stuff can come down a long way in the majors and he can still be a capable reliever.

Depth is lacking, as the Cubs are loaded with mediocrity in the bullpen beyond Marmol and Fujikawa. There will be issues keeping leads in the sixth and seventh innings if the starters can’t go deep into games.

#21 Cardinals

Jason Motte is doubtful to start the season with a mild elbow strain, hence his placement third in the table. When healthy, Motte is one of the best relievers in the game. His rise is doubly remarkable, partly because he’s only a few years removed from a switch from catching and because he really doesn’t have much of a repertoire outside of his fastball. It makes him a little bit susceptible to good left-handed hitting, but for the most part, his upper-90s fastball is powerful enough and has enough movement to lock hitters down.

But, on the whole, the bullpen was one of the Cardinals’ few weaknesses last year, and it appears that might carry through to 2013. Trevor Rosenthal is an incredibly exciting prospect (and a potential rookie of the year if Motte’s injury lingers and Rosenthal inherits the closer role). But Marc Rzepczynski and Fernando Salas were mediocre last year, and Randy Choate and Edward Mujica shouldn’t excite anybody.

If Motte comes back quickly, this unit looks a good deal better, and Rosenthal could blow this forecast out of the water. Don’t let the ordinal rank here fool you – this bullpen could be quite good. It’s just got some question marks at the moment.

#22 Mariners

This is a bullpen worth watching, even if it might not be that great. Between closer Tom Wilhelmsen and the youth duo of Carter Capps and Stephen Pryor, this bullpen brings serious heat. All three can touch the upper 90s with the fastball. As such, it’s probably unsurprising that all three have some control issues, specifically Pryor. But that just means more exciting situations with runners on. Great for the viewer!

Wilhelmsen’s fastball is one of the best pitches in the game, so as long as he doesn’t come out of the gate with lower velocity, it wouldn’t surprise for him to have another excellent season. The question is whether or not the youngsters behind him can do enough to get outs. There’s a lot of upside, here, though. If guys like Charlie Furbush (2.72 ERA, 2.81 FIP) and Oliver Perez (2.12 ERA, 2.93 FIP) can keep thriving in their conversions from starter to reliever, the quality of Seattle’s bullpen could even match the spectacle.

#23 Marlins

The Marlins bullpen is loaded with serviceable pitchers, but lacks top-end talent. Steve Cishek was sharp last year and eventually earned the closer role, as he posted a 2.69 ERA and 3.22 FIP. His success will depend on how he handles left-handed batters. Southpaws hit .277/.391/.396 off him last year, but Cishek only served up one home run to a left-handed batter out of 133 faced. He was able to work around eight doubles and a triple. Cishek will likely see a bevy of pinch-hit lefties this season, and he’ll have to keep the ball in the yard. If he can, he’ll be fine — righties hit a putrid .180/.266/.282 off him and his sharp slider and arm angle should sustain the success.

Behind Cishek, they have a load of quality but not front-line relievers. Ryan Webb has been an elite ground ball reliever over the last few years. Mike Dunn brings a blazing left-handed fastball but without much control. A.J. Ramos is similar but from the right side. A collection of decent arms should keep the team from being awful late in games, but they’re not a shut down group either.

#24 Pirates

Jason Grilli has always had a major-league fastball, he just didn’t turn it into results until 2011. He added velocity, and more importantly, he throws strikes with it consistently now. He should thrive as Pittsburgh’s closer in 2013.

For a team unwilling to spend big bucks on Joel Hanrahan (and understandably so), plucking Mark Melancon out of Boston’s bullpen was a sharp move. He collapsed early in 2012 with the Red Sox, but he built himself up in the minors and looked like the Melancon the Red Sox wanted when they acquired him from Houston. After his return to the majors, Melancon struck out 40 against 10 walks with three home runs allowed in 43 innings and allowed just a .597 OPS against; he should be fine in the setup role.

Tony Watson gives Pittsburgh a hard-throwing lefty, but control problems limit him. Jared Hughes throws ground balls better than most relievers, but outside of those two, there isn’t much depth in the Pirates’ bullpen. They’ll need development out of somebody like Kyle McPherson to have much upside as a unit.

#25 Indians

Chris Perez took a pretty big step forward in 2012, as his strikeout rate and walk rates both improved dramatically from 2012. But he still posted just a 3.59 ERA (91 ERA-) and 3.34 FIP (83 FIP-), merely adequate numbers for a closer. Perez still gives up too many fly balls — he was over 40 percent for the fifth of his five major league seasons in 2012 — and he hasn’t shown, as many elite relievers do — the ability to keep fly balls in the ballpark.

Vinnie Pestano has seemed like the best pitcher in Cleveland’s bullpen for a few years now, and 2013 is no different. He offers an excellent combination of stuff and results, and if given a chance there’s reason to believe he could be an elite closer. Cleveland just doesn’t have much behind the Perez-Pestano duo. Veteran righty Joe Smith might be the third best reliever in the bullpen, and his career has been about as exciting as his name.

#26 Padres

Park factors, park factors, park factors. San Diego’s bullpen looks pretty good if you just gaze at the raw numbers, with an especially solid high leverage group in Huston Street, Luke Gregerson and Brad Boxberger. However, it’s telling that even Dale Thayer — a minor-league journeyman — was able to have some success in San Diego’s closer role last year, and the park’s ability to hide pitcher’s weaknesses can’t be forgotten.

The back-end trio, particularly Street, still looks pretty solid on a neutral field. Street hasn’t posted an ERA- nor a FIP- above 90 in his entire eight-year career. But pitchers like Thayer, Tom Layne and Tyson Ross don’t project as much better than replacement without the help of San Diego’s spacious park (and, of course, we’ll have to see what happens with the fences moving in, but I’d be surprised to see a terribly significant difference).

Luckily for San Diego, they still get 81 games at PETCO Park. If they can just get some leads to the seventh inning there, they’ll be in good shape.

#27 Twins

Closer should not be a problem for the Twins. Once the Twins dedicated Perkins to relieving full-time, he found a groove. The lefty owns a 2.52 ERA and 2.81 FIP in 132 innings over the past two seasons. At 94.4 MPH on average, his fastball is one of the most powerful from a left-hander in the league, and his sharp slider induces whiffs on nearly one of every three swings.

But the Twins lack depth. Nobody else in the entire bullpen is projected for a FIP below 4.00, and only Jared Burton lands an ERA below 4.00. There is a disturbing lack of power arms for Minnesota. Outside of Perkins, only Rich Harden is projected to strike out more than 8.0 batters per nine innings, and Harden is a complete question mark out of the bullpen. Expect loads of contact off this Twins’ bullpen, and loads of contact usually means loads of runs.

#28 Mets

After last season, the Mets should be happy just not to be ranked last. Bobby Parnell turned his stuff into results for the first time over a full season in 2012, and the 28-year-old looks primed to take over the closer’s role. He should handle it well — his mid-to-upper 90s fastball was an excellent pitch last year and worked well in tandem with a rediscovered curveball.

Brandon Lyon was an Ed Wade special overpay in Houston, which disguised the fact that he was actually pretty good in the two years he was healthy (2010 and 2012). Lyon has had an ERA- under 78 in three of the past four years, and he should serve as a capable setup man.

The depth, however, lacks. If Frank Francisco can stay healthy his strikeout abilities provide value, but the rest of the bullpen is largely replacement level — either guys who just aren’t ready yet or who have already proven they don’t have much to offer. As such it looks like another year for the Mets with a bullpen ERA over 4.00, a frankly unacceptable mark given the decline in offense over the last few years.

#29 Brewers

To understand how truly bad this Brewers bullpen last year, just note that this +3.8 WAR projection would be just under a two win increase; Milwaukee’s bullpen posted a brutal -4.45 WPA on the season despite a solid +0.86 WPA in September. There is room for improvement even if the Brewers’ bullpen doesn’t become good.

The spotlight will be on John Axford after a rough season (4.67 ERA, 4.06 FIP). The stuff wasn’t a problem, as he threw as hard as ever and set a career high with a 12.1 K/9. He issued 5.1 BB/9, an uptick, but not alarmingly higher than his successful 2010 season (4.2 BB/9). The real problem was the home run. After giving up just five in his first 139.1 innings, hitters put 10 Axford pitches over the fence in 69.1 innings in 2012 (1.3 HR/9). A 19.2 HR/FB% seems unsustainably high, so we’ll have to see if Axford can make the necessary adjustment.

The depth is still somewhat lacking; the Brewers will rely on a similar pitcher to Axford in Jim Henderson, who shot through the minor leagues with a blazing fastball to reach Milwaukee at the end of the season. The club added a few veterans in Michael Gonzalez, Tom Gorzelanny and Burke Badenhop. Neither is impressive, but all are major league talents. Michael Olmsted will be the most interesting reliever to watch if he can earn a promotion to Milwaukee; the hulking 25-year-old has a tremendous minor league track record (1.96 ERA, 11.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 in 161 innings) but has battled injuries throughout his career.

#30 Astros

The Astros, unsurprisingly, understand there is no need to worry about building a bullpen before the roster’s foundation is in place. They plucked a cheap reliever with closer stuff but questionable control and command off the free agent market in Jose Veras, and the rest will be cobbled together from within the organization. Veras’s ceiling is truly elite given his upper-90s fastball and exceptionally sharp curveball, but his propensity for wildness leads to rough stretches. If the Astros can clean it up, he may be an asset, and if so, don’t expect him to stick around for the whole season.

Wesley Wright gives Houston a solid lefty who can get outs from both sides. Xavier Cedeno racked up strikeouts (10.45 per nine innings) in 2012 despite just an 89 MPH average fastball; he relies on curveball (41.6 percent of pitches) to get his outs, and he’ll be worth watching. The rest of the crew essentially defines replacement level, though, and so there will be some desolate stretches for this unit.