Projecting Recent A’s Call-Ups Franklin Barreto and Matt Chapman

There’s a youth movement taking place in Oakland. The A’s jettisoned both Trevor Plouffe and Stephen Vogt in the last couple of weeks, replacing them with Matt Chapman and Bruce Maxwell. Another big splash came this weekend, when Oakland summoned prospect Franklin Barreto to play second base.

Barreto continued to hit for an encouraging amount of power as a minor leaguer this year, especially considering he played in a park that massively suppresses homers (by PCL standards). However, his strikeout rate spiked from 18% to 30% as he transitioned from Double-A and Triple-A and his stolen-base numbers plummeted. As a result, his KATOH forecast has taken a hit. I have him projected for 4.8 WAR over his first six seasons by stats-only KATOH and 5.4 WAR by KATOH+, which incorporates his prospect ranking. Those marks place him 90th and 55th, respectively, among prospects, down from 18th and 20th in the preseason.

To put some faces to Barreto’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps for the infielder. I calculated a Mahalanobis distance between Barreto’s Triple-A performance and every season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. A lower “Mah Dist” reading indicates a closer comp.

Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.

Franklin Barreto Mahalanobis Comps

Although Barreto’s played second base exclusively in Oakland, he was a shortstop in the minors who played average-ish defense. Given shortstop’s place on the defensive spectrum, this suggests he’ll be a more than adequate defender at second. Paired with his offensive abilities, that makes for a promising player.

As much as KATOH likes Barreto, it likes Matt Chapman even more. Chapman landed on the DL with a knee infection just four games after he was called up, but his minor-league performance was excellent. He slashed .257/.348/.589 in Triple-A this year with 16 homers despite playing half of his games in pitcher-friendly (by PCL standards) Nashville. This came on the heels of a similar, 36-homer campaign between Double-A and Triple-A last year.

He also appears to be an elite defensive third baseman. Clay Davenport’s numbers had him as a +36 (!) defender in 168 games between this year and last. This jibes with the scouting reports, as Eric Longenhagen wrote that “he’s a future plus defensive third baseman with a plus arm, and there are scouts who have 70s on either or both.”

KATOH projects Chapman for 8.9 WAR over his first six seasons by stats-only KATOH and 7.7 WAR by KATOH+, which incorporates his prospect ranking. Those marks put him 14th and 28th, respectively, among prospects. He ranked 15th and 39th in the preseason.

Chapman’s one flaw is that he strikes out a ton. He’s consistently struck out around 30% of the time in the minors, which is an alarmingly high figure. But KATOH thinks his power and defense provide enough upside to outweigh the strikeout risk. Few players have the power to hit 30 homers and few players can play elite defense at a semi-premium position. Chapman can do both, which makes him a rare talent.

Oakland has several young, promising players who are just now breaking into the show — including Jaycob Brugman (3.0, 2.2), Daniel Gossett (1.9, 1.8), Bruce Maxwell (5.2 KATOH WAR, 4.8 KATOH+ WAR), and Matt Olson (6.2, 4.0) — but none are more exciting than Barreto and Chapman, who hint at the potential for a great infield. At 34-42, the Athletics have essentially no shot at competing this year; we give them a measly 4.5% chance of even making it to the Wild Card game. But the young talent on their roster suggests they may not be far off.