Projecting the College Players Taken on Day Two of the Draft
Yesterday, I published a post projecting the players taken on day one of the draft. Between then and now, an additional 239 players were drafted. Let’s take a look at what my math says about some of those players. As a reminder, I only have projections for college players who logged at least 100 plate appearances or batters faced in select major NCAA conferences this year, including the: AAC, ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big West, Pac 12 and SEC. I do not have projections for high school players.
Below, you’ll find thoughts on some players of note from rounds 3-10, followed by a giant, sortable table with projections for all drafted players for whom I have projections. The cumulative WAR projections will probably feel a bit low to you. They feel low to me too. For this reason, I recommend you don’t take the projections themselves literally, but instead use them to compare draftees to other draftees.
*****
81. Garrett Hampson, SS, Colorado
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.1
Hampson’s projection looks unimpressive at first glance, but its tops among draft-eligible Big West hitters. Though he lacked power, he demonstrated an interesting combination of contact and speed at Long Beach State. He’s also a shortstop, so he also has some defensive value that’s not accounted for by his projection.
*****
82. Braden Webb, RHP, Milwaukee
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 3.3
The Brewers will add yet another KATOH darling to a system that’s chock full of them. KATOH loves it some Braden Webb. His strikeout rate at South Carolina was nothing short of elite for a starting pitcher, giving him one of the second best projection of any draft-eligible pitcher. His walk rate is a tad high, but that feels like nit-picking. Webb’s dominance of the SEC bodes well for his long-term future.
*****
106. Zac Gallen, RHP, St. Louis
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.9
There’s little to complain about with Gallen’s performance in North Carolina’s rotation. The 20-year-old struck guys out, issued very few walks and kept the ball in the park, resulting in a stellar 2.68 ERA.
*****
115. Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Detroit
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.1
Last year’s 35th overall pick returned to Louisville for his senior season and was once again underwhelmed statistically. He wasn’t bad – he posted a decent strikeout rate across nearly 100 innings – but yielded a few too many walks. As a 22-year-old senior, he’s a year older than most other college arms. His unspectacular numbers as a 22-year-old are concerning by my math.
*****
129. Charles Leblanc, SS, Texas
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 1.6
LeBlanc was a singles machine at Pittsburgh, which resulted in an ACC-leading .405 batting average. LeBlanc’s numbers were more good than great, especially in the power department. But as a 20-year-old draft-eligible sophomore, he’s nearly a full year younger than most of his peers who were drafted out of college.
*****
148. Mike Shawaryn, RHP, Boston
Proj. WAR thru age-27:
Shawaryn ran into some poor BABIP luck his junior season at Maryland, but his peripheral stats were excellent. He racked up plenty of strikeouts, and served up just two long balls in 99 innings of work.
*****
156. Connor Justus, SS, Los Angeles (AL)
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 1.0
Although he hit just six home runs at Georga Tech last year, Justus laced tons of doubles and rarely struck out. The shortstop’s offensive profile is sneaky-promising.
*****
220. Austin McGeorge, RHP, New York (NL)
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 1.1
McGeorge was left off of both Baseball America’s top 500 draft prospects and Minor League Ball’s top 650 draft prospects, but KATOH likes what it sees in the 6-foot-2 righty. McGeorge was lights-out out of Long Beach State’s bullpen, striking out 76 and walking 14 in 53 innings without allowing any homers. Sure, McGeorge is a one-inning reliever, but very few pitchers put up numbers like those in a top conference.
*****
247. Nick Hernandez, RHP, Houston
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 1.0
Hernandez dominated out of Houston’s bullpen. In 51 innings, he fanned 67 hitters while only walking 11. Hernandez is a short reliever with a limited track record, but his exceptional college numbers suggest he’d fare well against better hitters.
*****
297. David Greer, 3B, Seattle
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 1.5
Greer flat out raked at Arizona State this year. His lack of speed and athleticism hurts him a bit, but he has the offensive track record of a future big league contributor.
*****
314. Dakota Mekkes, RHP, Chicago (NL)
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 3.8
Mekkes is KATOH’s favorite player in the draft. You read that right: Mekkes receives the highest WAR forecast of any draft-eligible player for whom I have a projection. Mekkes carved up Big 10 hitters by striking out 96 batters in just 57 innings without surrendering a single homerun. Yes, he pitched exclusively in relief, but he averaged nine batters faced per appearance. He wasn’t a one-inning reliever like many other college relievers. I imagine the 6-foot-7 righty will move quickly through the Cubs’ system. I’m quite surprised Mekkes fell as far as he did.
*****
| Round | Pick | Name | Team | Position | MLB | WAR |
| 3 | 80 | Drew Harrington | Braves | LHP | 10% | 0.1 |
| 3 | 81 | Garrett Hampson | Rockies | SS | 9% | 0.1 |
| 3 | 82 | Braden Webb | Brewers | RHP | 56% | 3.3 |
| 3 | 88 | Shaun Anderson | Red Sox | RHP | 30% | 0.3 |
| 3 | 97 | Jake Rogers | Astros | C | 2% | 0.0 |
| 3 | 100 | Blake Tiberi | Mets | 3B | 21% | 0.4 |
| 3 | 102 | Zach Jackson | Blue Jays | RHP | 18% | 0.6 |
| 3 | 104 | Tom Hatch | Cubs | RHP | 34% | 0.5 |
| 3 | 105 | Stephen Alemais | Pirates | SS | 4% | 0.0 |
| 3 | 106 | Zac Gallen | Cardinals | RHP | 40% | 0.9 |
| 4 | 115 | Kyle Funkhouser | Tigers | RHP | 16% | 0.1 |
| 4 | 117 | Thomas Burrows | Mariners | LHP | 27% | 0.5 |
| 4 | 118 | Bobby Dalbec | Red Sox | 3B | 0% | 0.1 |
| 4 | 122 | Shane Bieber | Indians | RHP | 16% | 0.2 |
| 4 | 124 | Nick Banks | Nationals | OF | 11% | 0.1 |
| 4 | 125 | Matt Krook | Giants | LHP | 29% | 0.1 |
| 4 | 129 | Charles Leblanc | Rangers | SS | 29% | 1.6 |
| 4 | 132 | Josh Palacios | Blue Jays | OF | 16% | 0.2 |
| 4 | 133 | Jace Vines | Royals | RHP | 16% | 0.2 |
| 4 | 136 | Jeremy Martinez | Cardinals | C | 16% | 0.6 |
| 5 | 137 | Cole Irvin | Phillies | LHP | 32% | 0.3 |
| 5 | 138 | Ryan Hendrix | Reds | RHP | 13% | 0.3 |
| 5 | 140 | Brian Serven | Rockies | C | 11% | 0.1 |
| 5 | 141 | Zack Brown | Brewers | RHP | 10% | 0.2 |
| 5 | 142 | JaVon Shelby | Athletics | 3B | 8% | 0.1 |
| 5 | 145 | Mark Ecker | Tigers | RHP | 27% | 0.2 |
| 5 | 147 | Donovan Walton | Mariners | SS | 11% | 0.1 |
| 5 | 148 | Mike Shawaryn | Red Sox | RHP | 39% | 1.0 |
| 5 | 155 | Ryan Howard | Giants | SS | 20% | 0.3 |
| 5 | 156 | Connor Justus | Angels | SS | 32% | 0.7 |
| 5 | 158 | Dom Thompson-Williams | Yankees | OF | 22% | 0.3 |
| 5 | 160 | Colby Woodmansee | Mets | SS | 31% | 0.4 |
| 5 | 162 | Cavan Biggio | Blue Jays | 2B | 33% | 0.5 |
| 5 | 164 | Bailey Clark | Cubs | RHP | 15% | 0.1 |
| 6 | 169 | Matt Gonzalez | Braves | 2B | 10% | 0.2 |
| 6 | 170 | Willie Abreu | Rockies | OF | 8% | 0.1 |
| 6 | 173 | Remey Reed | Marlins | RHP | 15% | 0.0 |
| 6 | 175 | Bryan Garcia | Tigers | RHP | 25% | 0.2 |
| 6 | 178 | Steve Nogosek | Red Sox | RHP | 19% | 0.0 |
| 6 | 184 | Tres Barrera | Nationals | C | 8% | 0.0 |
| 6 | 187 | Stephen Wrenn | Astros | OF | 8% | 0.1 |
| 6 | 188 | Brooks Kriske | Yankees | RHP | 25% | 0.0 |
| 6 | 189 | Kyle Cody | Rangers | RHP | 25% | 0.7 |
| 6 | 190 | Chris Viall | Mets | RHP | 9% | 0.0 |
| 6 | 191 | Errol Robinson | Dodgers | SS | 7% | 0.1 |
| 6 | 195 | Cam Vieaux | Pirates | LHP | 3% | 0.0 |
| 6 | 196 | Tommy Edman | Cardinals | SS | 10% | 0.3 |
| 7 | 197 | Henri Lartigue | Phillies | C | 6% | 0.1 |
| 7 | 198 | Andy Cox | Reds | LHP | 5% | 0.1 |
| 7 | 199 | J.B. Moss | Braves | OF | 3% | 0.0 |
| 7 | 200 | Reid Humphreys | Rockies | RHP | 4% | 0.0 |
| 7 | 201 | Daniel Brown | Brewers | LHP | 10% | 0.1 |
| 7 | 202 | Tyler Ramirez | Athletics | OF | 25% | 0.5 |
| 7 | 205 | Austin Sodders | Tigers | LHP | 16% | 0.2 |
| 7 | 206 | Bernardo Flores | White Sox | LHP | 12% | 0.0 |
| 7 | 211 | Preston Palmeiro | Orioles | 1B | 18% | 0.4 |
| 7 | 212 | Michael Tinsley | Indians | C | 28% | 0.6 |
| 7 | 216 | Jordan Zimmerman | Angels | 2B | 23% | 0.5 |
| 7 | 217 | Tyler Buffett | Astros | RHP | 8% | 0.0 |
| 7 | 220 | Austin McGeorge | Mets | RHP | 40% | 1.1 |
| 7 | 223 | Travis Eckert | Royals | RHP | 24% | 0.1 |
| 7 | 226 | Andrew Knizner | Cardinals | C | 7% | 0.1 |
| 8 | 227 | Grant Dyer | Phillies | RHP | 30% | 0.3 |
| 8 | 228 | John Sansone | Reds | 2B | 19% | 0.4 |
| 8 | 230 | Ty Culbreth | Rockies | LHP | 20% | 0.1 |
| 8 | 232 | Will Gilbert | Athletics | LHP | 6% | 0.0 |
| 8 | 233 | Aaron Knapp | Marlins | OF | 7% | 0.1 |
| 8 | 235 | Jacob Robson | Tigers | OF | 11% | 0.1 |
| 8 | 240 | Ken Rosenberg | Rays | LHP | 27% | 0.5 |
| 8 | 241 | Ryan Moseley | Orioles | RHP | 1% | 0.0 |
| 8 | 242 | Andrew Lantrip | Indians | RHP | 18% | 0.3 |
| 8 | 244 | A.J. Bogucki | Nationals | RHP | 11% | 0.1 |
| 8 | 246 | Troy Montgomery | Angels | OF | 22% | 0.5 |
| 8 | 247 | Nick Hernandez | Astros | RHP | 38% | 1.0 |
| 8 | 248 | Dalton Blaser | Yankees | 1B | 1% | 0.0 |
| 8 | 255 | Dylan Prohoroff | Pirates | RHP | 10% | 0.1 |
| 9 | 257 | Blake Quinn | Phillies | RHP | 20% | 0.3 |
| 9 | 259 | Tyler Neslony | Braves | OF | 11% | 0.1 |
| 9 | 260 | Justin Calomeni | Rockies | RHP | 31% | 0.7 |
| 9 | 262 | Dalton Sawyer | Athletics | LHP | 33% | 0.7 |
| 9 | 265 | Daniel Pinero | Tigers | SS | 4% | 0.0 |
| 9 | 267 | Jason Goldstein | Mariners | C | 0% | 0.0 |
| 9 | 269 | Tommy Eveld | Diamondbacks | RHP | 9% | 0.1 |
| 9 | 273 | Mitchell Kranson | Twins | C | 12% | 0.1 |
| 9 | 275 | Caleb Baragar | Giants | LHP | 7% | 0.0 |
| 9 | 276 | Michael Barash | Angels | C | 12% | 0.3 |
| 9 | 285 | Clark Eagan | Pirates | OF | 14% | 0.3 |
| 9 | 286 | Matt Fiedler | Cardinals | OF | 7% | 0.1 |
| 10 | 288 | Lucas Benenati | Reds | RHP | 0% | 0.0 |
| 10 | 289 | Marcus Mooney | Braves | SS | 5% | 0.1 |
| 10 | 290 | Vince Fernandez | Rockies | OF | 5% | 0.1 |
| 10 | 294 | Boomer White | Padres | 2B | 17% | 0.4 |
| 10 | 297 | David Greer | Mariners | 3B | 57% | 1.5 |
| 10 | 299 | Stephen Smith | Diamondbacks | OF | 22% | 0.3 |
| 10 | 300 | Spencer Jones | Rays | RHP | 2% | 0.0 |
| 10 | 303 | Brandon Lopez | Twins | SS | 2% | 0.0 |
| 10 | 305 | Alex Bostic | Giants | LHP | 15% | 0.1 |
| 10 | 306 | Andrew Vinson | Angels | RHP | 20% | 0.1 |
| 10 | 310 | Gene Cone | Mets | OF | 25% | 0.7 |
| 10 | 312 | Kirby Snead | Blue Jays | LHP | 5% | 0.0 |
| 10 | 314 | Dakota Mekkes | Cubs | RHP | 78% | 3.8 |
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
Excited for the M’s in drafting Greer – has plate discipline been a strength of his? Also, do you see Greer as more likely to move to 1B than say, Joe Rizzo, who was also described as a 3B that could only stay there with significant improvement?
The plate discipline looks good, but his biggest strength is his power. Not a ton of homers, but an obscene amount of doubles, which KATOH likes.
Not qualified to speak about his defense, but I know he played 2B/3B/LF this year, so maybe he could be passable at least one of those positions.