Projecting the College Players Taken on Day Two of the Draft

by
June 11, 2016

Yesterday, I published a post projecting the players taken on day one of the draft. Between then and now, an additional 239 players were drafted. Let’s take a look at what my math says about some of those players. As a reminder, I only have projections for college players who logged at least 100 plate appearances or batters faced in select major NCAA conferences this year, including the: AAC, ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big West, Pac 12 and SEC. I do not have projections for high school players.

Below, you’ll find thoughts on some players of note from rounds 3-10, followed by a giant, sortable table with projections for all drafted players for whom I have projections. The cumulative WAR projections will probably feel a bit low to you. They feel low to me too. For this reason, I recommend you don’t take the projections themselves literally, but instead use them to compare draftees to other draftees.

*****

81. Garrett Hampson, SS, Colorado

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.1

Hampson’s projection looks unimpressive at first glance, but its tops among draft-eligible Big West hitters. Though he lacked power, he demonstrated an interesting combination of contact and speed at Long Beach State. He’s also a shortstop, so he also has some defensive value that’s not accounted for by his projection.

*****

82. Braden Webb, RHP, Milwaukee

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 3.3

The Brewers will add yet another KATOH darling to a system that’s chock full of them. KATOH loves it some Braden Webb. His strikeout rate at South Carolina was nothing short of elite for a starting pitcher, giving him one of the second best projection of any draft-eligible pitcher. His walk rate is a tad high, but that feels like nit-picking. Webb’s dominance of the SEC bodes well for his long-term future.

*****

106. Zac Gallen, RHP, St. Louis

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.9

There’s little to complain about with Gallen’s performance in North Carolina’s rotation. The 20-year-old struck guys out, issued very few walks and kept the ball in the park, resulting in a stellar 2.68 ERA.

*****

115. Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Detroit

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.1

Last year’s 35th overall pick returned to Louisville for his senior season and was once again underwhelmed statistically. He wasn’t bad – he posted a decent strikeout rate across nearly 100 innings – but yielded a few too many walks. As a 22-year-old senior, he’s a year older than most other college arms. His unspectacular numbers as a 22-year-old are concerning by my math.

*****

129. Charles Leblanc, SS, Texas

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 1.6

LeBlanc was a singles machine at Pittsburgh, which resulted in an ACC-leading .405 batting average. LeBlanc’s numbers were more good than great, especially in the power department. But as a 20-year-old draft-eligible sophomore, he’s nearly a full year younger than most of his peers who were drafted out of college.

*****

148. Mike Shawaryn, RHP, Boston

Proj. WAR thru age-27:

Shawaryn ran into some poor BABIP luck his junior season at Maryland, but his peripheral stats were excellent. He racked up plenty of strikeouts, and served up just two long balls in 99 innings of work.

*****

156. Connor Justus, SS, Los Angeles (AL)

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 1.0

Although he hit just six home runs at Georga Tech last year, Justus laced tons of doubles and rarely struck out. The shortstop’s offensive profile is sneaky-promising.

*****

220. Austin McGeorge, RHP, New York (NL)

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 1.1

McGeorge was left off of both Baseball America’s top 500 draft prospects and Minor League Ball’s top 650 draft prospects, but KATOH likes what it sees in the 6-foot-2 righty. McGeorge was lights-out out of Long Beach State’s bullpen, striking out 76 and walking 14 in 53 innings without allowing any homers. Sure, McGeorge is a one-inning reliever, but very few pitchers put up numbers like those in a top conference.

*****

247. Nick Hernandez, RHP, Houston

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 1.0

Hernandez dominated out of Houston’s bullpen. In 51 innings, he fanned 67 hitters while only walking 11. Hernandez is a short reliever with a limited track record, but his exceptional college numbers suggest he’d fare well against better hitters.

*****

297. David Greer, 3B, Seattle

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 1.5

Greer flat out raked at Arizona State this year. His lack of speed and athleticism hurts him a bit, but he has the offensive track record of a future big league contributor.

*****

314. Dakota Mekkes, RHP, Chicago (NL)

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 3.8

Mekkes is KATOH’s favorite player in the draft. You read that right: Mekkes receives the highest WAR forecast of any draft-eligible player for whom I have a projection. Mekkes carved up Big 10 hitters by striking out 96 batters in just 57 innings without surrendering a single homerun. Yes, he pitched exclusively in relief, but he averaged nine batters faced per appearance. He wasn’t a one-inning reliever like many other college relievers. I imagine the 6-foot-7 righty will move quickly through the Cubs’ system. I’m quite surprised Mekkes fell as far as he did.

*****

Projections for College Draft Picks: Rounds 3-10
Round Pick Name Team Position MLB WAR
3 80 Drew Harrington Braves LHP 10% 0.1
3 81 Garrett Hampson Rockies SS 9% 0.1
3 82 Braden Webb Brewers RHP 56% 3.3
3 88 Shaun Anderson Red Sox RHP 30% 0.3
3 97 Jake Rogers Astros C 2% 0.0
3 100 Blake Tiberi Mets 3B 21% 0.4
3 102 Zach Jackson Blue Jays RHP 18% 0.6
3 104 Tom Hatch Cubs RHP 34% 0.5
3 105 Stephen Alemais Pirates SS 4% 0.0
3 106 Zac Gallen Cardinals RHP 40% 0.9
4 115 Kyle Funkhouser Tigers RHP 16% 0.1
4 117 Thomas Burrows Mariners LHP 27% 0.5
4 118 Bobby Dalbec Red Sox 3B 0% 0.1
4 122 Shane Bieber Indians RHP 16% 0.2
4 124 Nick Banks Nationals OF 11% 0.1
4 125 Matt Krook Giants LHP 29% 0.1
4 129 Charles Leblanc Rangers SS 29% 1.6
4 132 Josh Palacios Blue Jays OF 16% 0.2
4 133 Jace Vines Royals RHP 16% 0.2
4 136 Jeremy Martinez Cardinals C 16% 0.6
5 137 Cole Irvin Phillies LHP 32% 0.3
5 138 Ryan Hendrix Reds RHP 13% 0.3
5 140 Brian Serven Rockies C 11% 0.1
5 141 Zack Brown Brewers RHP 10% 0.2
5 142 JaVon Shelby Athletics 3B 8% 0.1
5 145 Mark Ecker Tigers RHP 27% 0.2
5 147 Donovan Walton Mariners SS 11% 0.1
5 148 Mike Shawaryn Red Sox RHP 39% 1.0
5 155 Ryan Howard Giants SS 20% 0.3
5 156 Connor Justus Angels SS 32% 0.7
5 158 Dom Thompson-Williams Yankees OF 22% 0.3
5 160 Colby Woodmansee Mets SS 31% 0.4
5 162 Cavan Biggio Blue Jays 2B 33% 0.5
5 164 Bailey Clark Cubs RHP 15% 0.1
6 169 Matt Gonzalez Braves 2B 10% 0.2
6 170 Willie Abreu Rockies OF 8% 0.1
6 173 Remey Reed Marlins RHP 15% 0.0
6 175 Bryan Garcia Tigers RHP 25% 0.2
6 178 Steve Nogosek Red Sox RHP 19% 0.0
6 184 Tres Barrera Nationals C 8% 0.0
6 187 Stephen Wrenn Astros OF 8% 0.1
6 188 Brooks Kriske Yankees RHP 25% 0.0
6 189 Kyle Cody Rangers RHP 25% 0.7
6 190 Chris Viall Mets RHP 9% 0.0
6 191 Errol Robinson Dodgers SS 7% 0.1
6 195 Cam Vieaux Pirates LHP 3% 0.0
6 196 Tommy Edman Cardinals SS 10% 0.3
7 197 Henri Lartigue Phillies C 6% 0.1
7 198 Andy Cox Reds LHP 5% 0.1
7 199 J.B. Moss Braves OF 3% 0.0
7 200 Reid Humphreys Rockies RHP 4% 0.0
7 201 Daniel Brown Brewers LHP 10% 0.1
7 202 Tyler Ramirez Athletics OF 25% 0.5
7 205 Austin Sodders Tigers LHP 16% 0.2
7 206 Bernardo Flores White Sox LHP 12% 0.0
7 211 Preston Palmeiro Orioles 1B 18% 0.4
7 212 Michael Tinsley Indians C 28% 0.6
7 216 Jordan Zimmerman Angels 2B 23% 0.5
7 217 Tyler Buffett Astros RHP 8% 0.0
7 220 Austin McGeorge Mets RHP 40% 1.1
7 223 Travis Eckert Royals RHP 24% 0.1
7 226 Andrew Knizner Cardinals C 7% 0.1
8 227 Grant Dyer Phillies RHP 30% 0.3
8 228 John Sansone Reds 2B 19% 0.4
8 230 Ty Culbreth Rockies LHP 20% 0.1
8 232 Will Gilbert Athletics LHP 6% 0.0
8 233 Aaron Knapp Marlins OF 7% 0.1
8 235 Jacob Robson Tigers OF 11% 0.1
8 240 Ken Rosenberg Rays LHP 27% 0.5
8 241 Ryan Moseley Orioles RHP 1% 0.0
8 242 Andrew Lantrip Indians RHP 18% 0.3
8 244 A.J. Bogucki Nationals RHP 11% 0.1
8 246 Troy Montgomery Angels OF 22% 0.5
8 247 Nick Hernandez Astros RHP 38% 1.0
8 248 Dalton Blaser Yankees 1B 1% 0.0
8 255 Dylan Prohoroff Pirates RHP 10% 0.1
9 257 Blake Quinn Phillies RHP 20% 0.3
9 259 Tyler Neslony Braves OF 11% 0.1
9 260 Justin Calomeni Rockies RHP 31% 0.7
9 262 Dalton Sawyer Athletics LHP 33% 0.7
9 265 Daniel Pinero Tigers SS 4% 0.0
9 267 Jason Goldstein Mariners C 0% 0.0
9 269 Tommy Eveld Diamondbacks RHP 9% 0.1
9 273 Mitchell Kranson Twins C 12% 0.1
9 275 Caleb Baragar Giants LHP 7% 0.0
9 276 Michael Barash Angels C 12% 0.3
9 285 Clark Eagan Pirates OF 14% 0.3
9 286 Matt Fiedler Cardinals OF 7% 0.1
10 288 Lucas Benenati Reds RHP 0% 0.0
10 289 Marcus Mooney Braves SS 5% 0.1
10 290 Vince Fernandez Rockies OF 5% 0.1
10 294 Boomer White Padres 2B 17% 0.4
10 297 David Greer Mariners 3B 57% 1.5
10 299 Stephen Smith Diamondbacks OF 22% 0.3
10 300 Spencer Jones Rays RHP 2% 0.0
10 303 Brandon Lopez Twins SS 2% 0.0
10 305 Alex Bostic Giants LHP 15% 0.1
10 306 Andrew Vinson Angels RHP 20% 0.1
10 310 Gene Cone Mets OF 25% 0.7
10 312 Kirby Snead Blue Jays LHP 5% 0.0
10 314 Dakota Mekkes Cubs RHP 78% 3.8





 

Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

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Nellies Boomstick
7 years ago

Excited for the M’s in drafting Greer – has plate discipline been a strength of his? Also, do you see Greer as more likely to move to 1B than say, Joe Rizzo, who was also described as a 3B that could only stay there with significant improvement?

0
Chris Mitchellmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Nellies Boomstick

The plate discipline looks good, but his biggest strength is his power. Not a ton of homers, but an obscene amount of doubles, which KATOH likes.

Not qualified to speak about his defense, but I know he played 2B/3B/LF this year, so maybe he could be passable at least one of those positions.

2