Projecting the Prospects in the Dustin Ackley Trade

At long last, the Yankees have finally managed to land Dustin Ackley. The Bombers swung a deal for the very failed prospect in exchange for Ramon Flores and Jose Ramirez. Here’s what the data say on the two prospects headed to Seattle. (Note: WAR figures denote WAR through age-28 season.)

Ramon Flores, 8.1 WAR

Aside from 33 plate appearances in the Bronx, Ramon Flores has spent the entire year playing at the Triple-A level, where he’s put together a nice little .286/.377/.417 season. The 23-year-old’s biggest strength is his ability to control the strike zone. He’s walked nearly as much as he’s struck out in Triple-A this year (12% vs. 13%), and he’s posted similar numbers in his previous minor-league seasons. He complements these plate-coverage skills with modest power (.130 ISO) and a dash of speed. Flores also played at the Triple-A level last season, where he hit .247/.339/.443 in 63 games around an ankle injury.

KATOH’s a huge fan of Flores’s act. My system pegs the outfielder for 8.1 WAR through age-28, which would have given him the 19th-best ranking in the preseason. This is slightly up from his preseason forecast of 7.9 WAR. Flores isn’t particularly toolsy, nor does he stand out in any one particular area, but he’s hit very well for a 23-year-old in Triple-A. KATOH really likes that. It’s also worth noting that he’s had one of the highest zone-contact rates in Triple-A, which correlates with a smooth transition to the majors.

Flores’s Mahalanobis comps aren’t quite as exciting, but the list does have its highlights. This list is also eerily similar to the comps I came up with for fellow Yankees prospect, Rob Refsnyder.

Rank Mah Dist Pitcher IP thru 28 WAR thru 28
1 0.28 Callix Crabbe 39 0.0
2 0.84 Darin Erstad 4,190 22.4
3 0.84 Brad Nelson 31 0.0
4 0.85 Marco Scutaro 606 0.0
5 0.87 Johnny Giavotella* 847 0.0
6 1.01 Matt Franco 414 0.5
7 1.01 Terry Jorgensen 226 0.1
8 1.07 F.P. Santangelo 580 4.4
9 1.07 Jaff Decker* 53 0.0
10 1.07 Chris Carter 1,898 2.1
11 1.09 Hank Conger* 907 2.4
12 1.11 Mitch Moreland 1,744 1.6
13 1.13 Ty Wigginton 1,962 1.8
14 1.17 Yamaico Navarro* 199 0.0
15 1.20 Rob Ryan* 70 0.0
16 1.21 Greg Garcia* 31 0.2
17 1.21 Joe Hall 31 0.4
18 1.21 Mark Ellis 1,512 8.7
19 1.22 Chris Clapinski 121 0.3
20 1.23 Chris Getz 1,309 1.6

*Hitters who have yet to play their age-28 season.

*****

Jose Ramirez, 1.9 WAR

Jose Ramirez always threw hard, but he could never quite find his command as a starter. However, after the Yankees moved him to the bullpen last year, he’s pitched very well. In 62 Triple-A innings between this year and last, he’s pitched to a 2.61 ERA and 2.85 FIP on the strength of a 27% strikeout rate, but got lit up in his 11 big-league appearances. These numbers are impressive, but at 25, Ramirez is getting a little old to still be considered a prospect.

KATOH pegs Ramirez for just 1.4 WAR through age 28. It gives him a 68% chance of throwing at least one pitch in the majors over the next four seasons. As you probably guessed, his statistical comps aren’t particularly exciting.

Rank Mah Dist Pitcher IP thru 28 WAR thru 28
1 0.51 Jason Rice 0 0.0
2 0.62 Dana Ridenour 0 0.0
3 0.94 Bill Murphy 17 0.0
4 1.01 Lesli Brea 11 0.0
5 1.04 Jack Cressend 145 1.0
6 1.05 Scott Service 91 0.0
7 1.11 Scott Dunn 10 0.0
8 1.26 Frankie Rodriguez 0 0.0
9 1.39 Kevin Gallaher 0 0.0
10 1.42 Tom Shearn 0 0.0
11 1.49 Yorkis Perez 139 0.9
12 1.78 Geremi Gonzalez 156 1.7
13 1.84 Greg Mix 0 0.0
14 1.90 Cedrick Bowers 0 0.0
15 1.94 Jim Lewis 13 0.0
16 1.99 Mark Malaska 36 0.2
17 2.14 Ryan Hancock 27 0.2
18 2.17 Dan Hubbs 0 0.0
19 2.19 Jeromy Palki 0 0.0
20 2.22 Tom Wegmann 0 0.0

*Pitchers who have yet to play their age-28 season.





Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

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tz
9 years ago

Your Mahalanobis comp for articles cranked out is getting close to the Cameron/Sullivan level this week lol.