Projecting the Prospects in the Dustin Ackley Trade
At long last, the Yankees have finally managed to land Dustin Ackley. The Bombers swung a deal for the very failed prospect in exchange for Ramon Flores and Jose Ramirez. Here’s what the data say on the two prospects headed to Seattle. (Note: WAR figures denote WAR through age-28 season.)
Ramon Flores, 8.1 WAR
Aside from 33 plate appearances in the Bronx, Ramon Flores has spent the entire year playing at the Triple-A level, where he’s put together a nice little .286/.377/.417 season. The 23-year-old’s biggest strength is his ability to control the strike zone. He’s walked nearly as much as he’s struck out in Triple-A this year (12% vs. 13%), and he’s posted similar numbers in his previous minor-league seasons. He complements these plate-coverage skills with modest power (.130 ISO) and a dash of speed. Flores also played at the Triple-A level last season, where he hit .247/.339/.443 in 63 games around an ankle injury.
KATOH’s a huge fan of Flores’s act. My system pegs the outfielder for 8.1 WAR through age-28, which would have given him the 19th-best ranking in the preseason. This is slightly up from his preseason forecast of 7.9 WAR. Flores isn’t particularly toolsy, nor does he stand out in any one particular area, but he’s hit very well for a 23-year-old in Triple-A. KATOH really likes that. It’s also worth noting that he’s had one of the highest zone-contact rates in Triple-A, which correlates with a smooth transition to the majors.
Flores’s Mahalanobis comps aren’t quite as exciting, but the list does have its highlights. This list is also eerily similar to the comps I came up with for fellow Yankees prospect, Rob Refsnyder.
| Rank | Mah Dist | Pitcher | IP thru 28 | WAR thru 28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.28 | Callix Crabbe | 39 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 0.84 | Darin Erstad | 4,190 | 22.4 |
| 3 | 0.84 | Brad Nelson | 31 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.85 | Marco Scutaro | 606 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.87 | Johnny Giavotella* | 847 | 0.0 |
| 6 | 1.01 | Matt Franco | 414 | 0.5 |
| 7 | 1.01 | Terry Jorgensen | 226 | 0.1 |
| 8 | 1.07 | F.P. Santangelo | 580 | 4.4 |
| 9 | 1.07 | Jaff Decker* | 53 | 0.0 |
| 10 | 1.07 | Chris Carter | 1,898 | 2.1 |
| 11 | 1.09 | Hank Conger* | 907 | 2.4 |
| 12 | 1.11 | Mitch Moreland | 1,744 | 1.6 |
| 13 | 1.13 | Ty Wigginton | 1,962 | 1.8 |
| 14 | 1.17 | Yamaico Navarro* | 199 | 0.0 |
| 15 | 1.20 | Rob Ryan* | 70 | 0.0 |
| 16 | 1.21 | Greg Garcia* | 31 | 0.2 |
| 17 | 1.21 | Joe Hall | 31 | 0.4 |
| 18 | 1.21 | Mark Ellis | 1,512 | 8.7 |
| 19 | 1.22 | Chris Clapinski | 121 | 0.3 |
| 20 | 1.23 | Chris Getz | 1,309 | 1.6 |
*Hitters who have yet to play their age-28 season.
*****
Jose Ramirez, 1.9 WAR
Jose Ramirez always threw hard, but he could never quite find his command as a starter. However, after the Yankees moved him to the bullpen last year, he’s pitched very well. In 62 Triple-A innings between this year and last, he’s pitched to a 2.61 ERA and 2.85 FIP on the strength of a 27% strikeout rate, but got lit up in his 11 big-league appearances. These numbers are impressive, but at 25, Ramirez is getting a little old to still be considered a prospect.
KATOH pegs Ramirez for just 1.4 WAR through age 28. It gives him a 68% chance of throwing at least one pitch in the majors over the next four seasons. As you probably guessed, his statistical comps aren’t particularly exciting.
| Rank | Mah Dist | Pitcher | IP thru 28 | WAR thru 28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.51 | Jason Rice | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 0.62 | Dana Ridenour | 0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 0.94 | Bill Murphy | 17 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.01 | Lesli Brea | 11 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.04 | Jack Cressend | 145 | 1.0 |
| 6 | 1.05 | Scott Service | 91 | 0.0 |
| 7 | 1.11 | Scott Dunn | 10 | 0.0 |
| 8 | 1.26 | Frankie Rodriguez | 0 | 0.0 |
| 9 | 1.39 | Kevin Gallaher | 0 | 0.0 |
| 10 | 1.42 | Tom Shearn | 0 | 0.0 |
| 11 | 1.49 | Yorkis Perez | 139 | 0.9 |
| 12 | 1.78 | Geremi Gonzalez | 156 | 1.7 |
| 13 | 1.84 | Greg Mix | 0 | 0.0 |
| 14 | 1.90 | Cedrick Bowers | 0 | 0.0 |
| 15 | 1.94 | Jim Lewis | 13 | 0.0 |
| 16 | 1.99 | Mark Malaska | 36 | 0.2 |
| 17 | 2.14 | Ryan Hancock | 27 | 0.2 |
| 18 | 2.17 | Dan Hubbs | 0 | 0.0 |
| 19 | 2.19 | Jeromy Palki | 0 | 0.0 |
| 20 | 2.22 | Tom Wegmann | 0 | 0.0 |
*Pitchers who have yet to play their age-28 season.
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
Your Mahalanobis comp for articles cranked out is getting close to the Cameron/Sullivan level this week lol.
Trading for some sort of need here? What was the point of this? Ackley will never be any good.
They wanted him just so that he could get rid of that beard.
Mercy, I hadn’t considered that, but clearly, it cannot be ruled out.
No, this was a very solid trade, even though there are no big names. Yankees gave up two low-level prospects, their 4th best AAA OF prospect and their 5th best AAA RP prospect, for a guy who is still young, whose swing fits well in Yankee Stadium, and who’s been an average to above-average player before this season, particularly at 2nd base. There’s not much downside here. I’m actually surprised so many Yankee fans are against this trade and believe Seattle won.
I think it’s a good deal for both teams. Flores is redundant with Judge, Heathcott, Williams, Gamel, and Cave around, but he should still end up being a regular MLB player, whether it’s as a starter or 4th OFer. Ramirez could be pretty good too, but he doesn’t have much of a future with the amount of bullpen talent that the Yankees have at every level.
That’s also what the Yankee fans thought about the Pineda trade. Have you adjusted the WAR for being a Mariner? That would take Flores to 4.0 and Ramirez to a 0.
It looks like the Yankees like Stephen Drew’s production so much that they went out and found a clone. I would guess that Ackley was acquired to replace Garret Jones on the roster, since Jones apparently peed in Girardi’s Cheerios in spring training. I don’t think it was a bad trade, in that I think Ackley likely has more upside than either guy the Yankees gave up, but I don’t see it as a clear upgrade in this season. Maybe this was done more for 2016?
Pretty even trade. The Yankees are banking on Ackley hitting better with a change in scenery. Ackley hits well at Yankee Stadium (.296/.397/.481/.878). Ackley is best suited at 2B and the Yankees can desperately use an upgrade there. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s versatile enough to play all three outfield positions and 1B.