Prospect Watch: A Statistical Report on Every First-Rounder
Just over a month has passed since baseball’s amateur draft in early June, and a majority of the players selected during the first round of same have now both (a) signed with the relevant selecting club and (b) recorded either a plate appearance or inning as an actual professional.
What the author has done for this edition of the Prospect Watch is to produce a pair of leaderboards (one for batters; one, pitchers) of the aforementioned first-round selections, with a view towards monitoring the early production of these players. Links to the relevant FanGraphs leaderboards are available here: Batters / Pitchers.
Leaderboard: First-Round Batters
Here are all the first-round batters to have recorded at least a single plate appearance, sorted by Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA):
| Player | Team | Pick | Age | Pos | PA | BB% | K% | HR | BABIP | wRC+ | wRAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | Cubs (A-/A) | 4 | 21 | C | 87 | 11.5% | 14.9% | 8 | .434 | 269 | 17.5 |
| Nick Gordon | Twins (R) | 5 | 18 | SS | 71 | 5.6% | 12.7% | 1 | .400 | 155 | 5.0 |
| Derek Hill | Tigers (R) | 23 | 18 | OF | 58 | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0 | .395 | 159 | 4.1 |
| Alex Jackson | Mariners (R) | 6 | 18 | OF | 46 | 8.7% | 26.1% | 1 | .429 | 151 | 3.2 |
| Cole Tucker | Pirates (R) | 24 | 17 | SS | 48 | 20.8% | 18.8% | 0 | .407 | 149 | 2.8 |
| Alex Blandino | Reds (R) | 29 | 21 | SS | 51 | 7.8% | 15.7% | 2 | .324 | 129 | 2.2 |
| Casey Gillaspie | Rays (A-) | 20 | 21 | 1B | 92 | 10.9% | 29.3% | 3 | .314 | 114 | 1.5 |
| Bradley Zimmer | Indians (A-) | 21 | 21 | OF | 41 | 12.2% | 17.1% | 0 | .357 | 124 | 1.1 |
| Matt Chapman | Athletics (R/A) | 25 | 21 | 3B | 63 | 6.3% | 14.3% | 1 | .292 | 101 | 0.3 |
| Braxton Davidson | Braves (R) | 32 | 18 | OF | 32 | 6.3% | 21.9% | 0 | .263 | 86 | -0.5 |
| Max Pentecost | Blue Jays (R) | 11 | 21 | C | 3 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0 | .000 | -100 | -0.7 |
| Michael Chavis | Red Sox (R) | 26 | 18 | SS | 4 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0 | .000 | -100 | -1.0 |
| Trea Turner | Padres (A-) | 13 | 21 | SS | 87 | 11.5% | 18.4% | 0 | .271 | 74 | -2.7 |
Leaderboard: First-Round Pitchers
Here are all the first-round pitchers to have recorded an appearance of some sort — sorted, in this case, by kwERA, an ERA estimator that accounts for strikeout and walk rate and which Dodgers draftee Grant Holmes has temporarily broken:
| Player | Team | Pick | Age | Hand | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | FIP | kwERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Holmes | Dodgers (R) | 22 | 18 | RHP | 2.0 | 22.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.56 | -1.45 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals (R) | 34 | 18 | RHP | 1.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 12.56 | 0.60 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals (R) | 27 | 20 | RHP | 1.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.56 | 1.40 |
| Aaron Nola | Phillies (A+) | 7 | 21 | RHP | 11.1 | 8.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 3.35 | 3.11 |
| Touki Toussaint | D-backs (R) | 16 | 18 | RHP | 2.0 | 18.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 3.06 | 3.55 |
| Justus Sheffield | Indians (R) | 31 | 18 | LHP | 1.1 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 3.31 | 3.68 |
| Foster Griffin | Royals (R) | 28 | 18 | LHP | 5.2 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 6.73 | 4.90 |
| Luis Ortiz | Rangers (R) | 30 | 18 | RHP | 1.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 5.06 | 5.40 |
| Tyler Kolek | Marlins (R) | 2 | 18 | RHP | 4.0 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 4.81 | 6.16 |
Moderately Helpful Notes
Here are five notes, offering varying degrees of insight:
- Omitted from the above are the 12 (out of 34) draftees not to have recorded any sort of professional appearance thus far — of which group, three remain unsigned. The unsigned, as follows, are: Carlos Rodon (LHP, Chicago AL), Sean Newcomb (LHP, Los Angeles AL), and Erick Fedde (RHP, Washington).
- Left-hander Brady Aiken, selected first overall by Houston, agreed originally to a $6.5 million signing bonus with the club, but a final deal has yet to be reached owing to indications that the San Diego native might/does have a ligament injury.
- Cubs’ catching prospect Kyle Schwarber, selected fourth overall out of Indiana University and signed for $3.125 million, has recorded precisely as many home runs thus far (eight) as every other first-round batter combined.
- Right-hander Aaron Nola, selected seventh by Philadelphia out of LSU and then signed for $3.3 million, is the only first-round pitching draftee to have been assigned higher than Rookie-level ball. The college signee has, in fact, had found some early success already in the High-A Florida State League.
- Baseball America’s draft database has been of some assistance to the composition of this post.
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