Rays Staying In the Race with Defense
The 2010 Seattle Mariners were supposed to be the team to show us what defense can mean to a team. Despite their objectively poor lineup and relatively shallow pitching staff, Seattle’s defense was supposed to give them a chance to win the AL West. Obviously, that didn’t happen, and certain websites may have taken a bit of flak as a result. But don’t think for a second the model can’t work. As Seattle assistant GM Tony Blengino told us at one of our events in Arizona this year, if a team is average in every respect and great in one, they have a chance to win a lot of games.
Meet the 2011 Tampa Bay Rays. They have a 100 wRC+ and a 104 FIP-. Average pitching, and average hitting. And their record? 44-35, only two games out of the wild card race and 2.5 out of the AL East lead. And their defense? Nothing short of great.
Observe: team BABIP allowed for the 2011 season.
The Rays stand alone at the top. The gap between them and second place Boston is one point larger than the gap between Boston and 10th place Oakland. And although BABIP is often influenced by luck, particularly in half-season sample, at the team level we’re already talking about over 2,000 balls in play for every team, about four seasons worth for a single batter.
Just as the Rays are first in the simple version of Defensive Efficiency Rating (denoted by 1-BABIP), they’re also first in the slightly more complex version used at Baseball Prospectus (which adds errors to the equation) as well as their park-adjusted version of the statistic. They’re first in UZR, although some other teams are near. Not so for DRS, where the Rays’ total of +55 is nearly three times that of second place Texas (+20).
No doubt, the Rays are great at defense. And with the rest of their game at least average, the Rays stand a chance to win a bunch of games. Don’t let the failure of the 2010 Mariners fool you: the defense-heavy team model can work, and the 2011 Rays are the shining example.
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Looked more at the BP Defensive Efficiency and the 2001 Mariners were unbelievable at .740. They only ranked 10th in FIP-, but still one a billion games… with a lot of help from the defense.
I have a broader look at this at DRB:
http://www.draysbay.com/2011/6/27/2246572/rays-babip-and-wobacon-against-since-2003
Two words Sam Fuld PERIOD
I’m kind of hijacking the topic here, but DER loves the Braves (4th from the top), while UZR hates the Braves (5th from the bottom). Does anyone know why these two stats are so far apart?
I think the wide variation between DER and UZR means that the Braves turn whatever balls they get to into outs, but they don’t get to many balls.
Then shouldn’t the not getting to many balls be reflected in a higher-than-average BABIP?
I’m a Braves fan and have watched a ton of games this year. It sure seems to me that, with the exception of shortstop, the defense on the team is by no means exceptional.
That said, the pitching staff does get a ton of weak grounders.
I know that defense is susceptible to ups and downs (slumps I guess you could say) the same way pitching and hitting are, but is there evidence that defense is LESS susceptible? If so, it seems like building your team to be great at Defense would provide the least variability in performance, when compared to the other two.
“We catch line drives.”
Death to Flying things.
Watching a Rays game is like watching a dead-ball era game sometimes.
The Rays are not the team which is great in one aspect (fielding) and average in otherwise. They can run well (I think also top in MLB), they have arguably one of the best front office and manager, as seen in roster flexibility or depth chart and platoon, they are better at preventing injury, etc…..
The team you talk about is the one that seeks for “The Extra 2%”.
I love how they’re using FIP, which is a stat based on the incorrect assumption that BABIP is completely random, in and article where they are trying to argue that BABUP proves the Ray’s defense is good.
Is Babip random? Or is it a product of pitching and defense? You can’t have it both ways.