Realism On Carrasco
As Eric noted in his post about the Futures Game, the starting pitcher for the World Team was Carlos Carrasco, widely accepted as the best pitching prospect on the international team roster. His name is brought up often in trade speculation, as the Phillies contemplate making a move to improve their major league roster, and he’s universally accepted as Philadelphia’s best prospect.
I’m just wondering, though, if we’re ever going to stop and realize that he’s just not that special?
During the Futures Game, we heard Steve Phillips gush about his electric stuff, all while Carrasco was throwing 88-92 MPH fastballs up in the strike zone. On the big stage, where he can go max effort for one inning, he tops out at 93. That’s not special – that’s average. It’s not just yesterday, either – Carrasco really does possess a fastball that averages around 90-92, which is inherently unspecial.
His calling card is a nasty change-up that sits in the low-80s and with sink that makes it a real weapon against left-handed batters. That’s a premium pitch, no doubt. However, his breaking ball is average at best, and just isn’t a knockout pitch. Realistically, he’s a fastball-changeup guy with a breaking ball that he’ll mix in occasionally.
That one plus pitch repertoire shows up in his minor league performance to date, which simply doesn’t match the hype he’s received. In 396 innings of work over four seasons, he’s racked up a grand total of 350 strikeouts for a 7.95 K/9 mark. That would be a fine mark in the majors, but once you adjust that performance to account for the inferior competition, it’s about equal to 6.0 K/9 in the major leagues.
That’s about a major league average strikeout rate, and there are certainly pitchers who are very effective with that kind of swing-and-miss percentage, but it’s almost always because they have another elite skill – either great command or a fantastic sinker that creates a lot of ground balls in most cases. Carrasco doesn’t possess either of those things. His command is average at best, a problem at worst, and while his fastball has movement, it’s not a sinker.
Realistically, Carrasco projects out right now as a 3.5 BB, 6.0 K, 45% GB% guy. That’s not an ace in the making – that’s the current iteration of Kevin Millwood. Toss in the injury concerns (Carrasco isn’t a picture of health) and we really have to ask ourselves what the big deal is.
Carrasco has a chance to be a nice back-of-the-rotation major league starter, and his change-up should allow him to keep lefties from beating him up, but I fail to see any evidence that he’s a premium prospect, or that teams should be lining up to convince Pat Gillick to give them Carrasco in exchange for their all-star major leaguers.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
From what I’ve read and heard, Carrasco’s typical velocity is 92-95 with good movement, getting a decent number of ground balls. It was likely less than that at the Futures Game because it was only his second appearance coming off of a mild shoulder injury that made him miss a start or two.
It’s possible you’re correct, but he’s very well regarded by scouts and is still young for his level, so I think he could easily become more than just a back end starter.