RosterResource Chat – 1/24/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat! Jon will be joining us in a few minutes and then I might take a short break to update the Nationals page with news just breaking that they’ve signed Shinnosuke Ogasawara.

David Stearns: I see you have Profar batting second behind Harris wouldn’t it stand to reason for him to leg off given his on base skills?

Jason Martinez: Profar is very good at 1 or 2. He was great in the 3 spot for the Padres. My current projection is based on how the season finished with Harris in the leadoff spot and having something like an .825 OPS over his final 200 PAs. Still a low OBP and better-suited for 6th spot, but Albies is coming off a down season so I have him there for now.

Cyrus: If the Jays really sign Alonso: How are you projecting the playtime in the infield?

Jason Martinez: I already have Vlad Jr. with about 10-12% of PT at 3B. Could be more if they signed Alonso. As things stand, I’d have Alonso as the primary DH and would move Will Wagner into a bench role, where he could still be valuable as a lefty bat who plays 2-4 times per week.

Jason Martinez: More specifically to playing time, Vlad Jr. and Santander would also get DH at-bats and Alonso would still get some time at 1B. But, more importantly, there are plenty of at-bats available for one more big bat.

Cyrus: Which moves would the Pirates and Reds have to do to really have a chance for the division?

Jon Becker: I think it’s actually the same for both teams: middle-of-the-order hitting and bullpen depth. I like both of their rotations (the Pirates’ especially) but each team only has a couple hitters I really wouldn’t want to face (Elly and McLain assuming he picks up where he left off; Reynolds and Cruz) and shallow-looking bullpens, though I think the Pirates adding Ferguson was a nice move and the Reds could benefit from sending Ashcraft into short relief and telling him to just air it out.

drplantwrench: there continues to be very vague rumors connecting alonso to the angels. given they have nolan and soler how would that even work??

Jason Martinez: It’s not out of the question. Would probably preclude a Taylor Ward or Jo Adell trade to open a corner OF spot for Soler. Schanuel played some OF in college. Not sure they’d go that route. Defense would be worse. But more power. More fun.

#4 starters: What’s your take on these #4 starters, all of which seem to have new-found flaws: JP Sears is in a new, smaller balpark. Luis L. Ortiz is on a new time. Casey Mize is on the same team in the same ballpark, but is there any hope that the former top prospect will move up a notch in the rotation?

Jon Becker: Ortiz would be my favorite here, then Sears, then Mize. Ortiz was really good last year and is going to a great pitching development team that could help him unlock even more; Sears is at minimum a nice innings-eater, I’m just not sure how Sacramento’s park factors will play compared to Oakland; Mize being another year removed from injury helps in theory, but even last year he couldn’t stay healthy and the stuff was inconsistent from what I saw.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Dodgers have a real 40 man crunch problem. Who is most likely to be moved between Brasier, Grove, Knack, Casparius, etc?

Jason Martinez: Sounds like they’re trying to move Brasier, which is probably their preference just to give them some more roster flexibility. As things stand, Vesia is the only guy that can be optioned and he’s proven himself to be a guy that shouldn’t be going to AAA, even for just 15 days at a time. Having a spot to cycle between guys like Grove, Casparius, Knack, etc. would be valuable and I’m sure they’ll be doing that at some point as more pitchers land on the IL.

Farhandrew Zaidman: If (when) the Mookie at SS experiment ends, do you see them slotting Edman/Kim/Rojas in there, or making a move for a true SS?

Jon Becker: I don’t think it’s an experiment, he’s been working out all offseason with the plan being to move back there, and part of trading Lux when Kim signed was to keep Mookie at short. Unlike last year, when Heyward was cut loose midseason, there’s not an obvious avenue for RF opening back up since Conforto and Teoscar aren’t going anywhere. Sending Mookie out to CF to switch with Edman might not be a great idea either.

Mike C: I know the move just happened minutes ago, but where does Shinnosuke Ogasawara slot into the Nats rotation?

Jason Martinez: It’s not an easy one. If the plan is to give Soroka a chance to start, then either DJ Herz is the odd man out to begin the season or Ogasawara is in the bullpen. And even now, I have them with 6 starters and an expectation that one one of them (likely Williams or Soroka) could bounce back and forth between rotation and bullpen.

Phil: Do the Red Sox need to trade Yoshida to seriously improve in their main areas of need, infield defense and right-handed hitting? How much salary would the Red Sox have to eat? I imagine John Henry wouldn’t like being told, we can get Bregman or Arenado but we have to also pay another guy to play for a different team.

Jon Becker: Not really, even if they view the CBT line as a hard cap (no idea if that’s true, just that it’s always a possibility), since they’re $31M under right now, though moving him would make playing time easier to sort out. Yoshida has three years and $54M left on his contract (plus $1.8M of his signing bonus, which the Red Sox pay regardless), and he’d probably get… 1y/$10M on the open market, maybe? Platoon DHs just aren’t worth much, they’d have to eat a massive chunk and/or attach Casas or prospects, or I guess take back a bad contract that fits their roster better, to move him.

Talfred: Many Red Sox fans believe they should trade Yoshida because, even though he’s a good player, he’s a bad fit for their roster. Isn’t he a bad fit for anyone’s roster? An $18 million slap hitter with bad defense and baserunning?

Jason Martinez: Red Sox are stacked and they have top prospects who are very close to the majors. So, it would make sense for them to move him. But he’s a good fit on at least a few other teams, especially if they can eat some of his remaining contract. He had an .832 OPS and 134wRC+ vs RHP last season. And the word is that he couldn’t play defense because of a previously unreported injury. Maybe he could play out there at least occasionally. Would you give a guy like that $18MM/yr? No, but maybe they’d have enough interest if they paid it down to $12MM/yr.

drplantwrench: my next angels naive idea is that they should sign scherzer to a one-year deal, something like 1 year/$22M. they def need front end SP and if(/when) the season falls apart they can use him as trade bait.  have i gone crazy? should i be talked out of this?

Jon Becker: That’s a lot of cash for Scherzer, who could do slightly better than Verlander, but I don’t think close to 50% better is happening. Scherzer’s still pretty good when healthy but I’d stop short of calling him front-end — if you’re going to give out a deal with that high an AAV to a starter, I think I’d prefer Pivetta or Flaherty even if they’ll require more than one-year deals.

Jackson: Is the Kepler signing enough to move the needle for the Phillies? They are essentially running it back position player wise even though the result of that has not been good

Jason Martinez: They won 95 games last season, the offense is still stacked, they added Jesus Luzardo, and could have Andrew Painter in the rotation in July. I don’t think adding Kepler will move the needle much but he could help stabilize the lineup and they won’t have to depend on Johan Rojas as anything more than a 4th OF/defensive replacement.

Fonzie: With the acquisition of Profar and the looming return of Acuna,  do you think Kelenic will be able to secure and/or hold onto an outfield spot?  Do you think he can take a step forward and fulfill his former elite prospect status?

Jason Martinez: I think the Profar signing signals the end of the line for Kelenic in regards to whether he can become an everyday player with the Braves. There’s just no more room once Acuña is back, at least in 2025. He’ll have Spring Training and maybe the first month of the season to prove to some other team that he could still fulfill his potential.

Holliday: Am I right in assuming that this year isn’t Jackson Holliday’s year, and he’ll either be platooned or sent back to AAA?

Jon Becker: Way too early to limit him to lefties and especially to send him down especially considering he looked good the last couple weeks of the year after changing his leg kick into a toe tap. Maybe he sits against some tough lefties (we have him platooning with Urías right now), though.

mortimer podge: all of baseball-related media seems united in the thought that the cubs “need” a closer. isn’t porter hodge kinda good? is your sense they really just don’t want him in the role?

Jason Martinez: It has less to do with whether Hodge can be a good closer and more to do with having multiple options who could pitch in high-leverage spots. If they sign a veteran closer (Estevez, Robertson, Jansen) or trade for Ryan Pressly, it doesn’t mean Hodge won’t be in line for saves. But there will be less pressure on him to be the “closer” and he would still go into the season as one of their top high-leverage relievers.

Del Martin: Is Arraez bouncing back to make him worth the Padres’ while? They reportedly need money and $14 million for a 1-1.5 WAR player seems like a terrible use of resources, especially if they end up trading Cease instead.

Jon Becker: I don’t buy that he’s his 2023 self but I also don’t buy that he’s as punchless as his 2024 self either; he hurt his thumb pretty early on in the year and was pretty obviously in pain on a lot of swings. The bigger issue is that he’s without a position on defense (he’s bad even in his best years), though I guess the Padres have so many open positions that they can just shove him wherever’s left.

Ben Shelton: Do you guys think there’s a good chance Preller trades Arraez or Cease? But what kind of return are they realistically looking at besides the obvious salary dump?

Jason Martinez: My assumption had been that they needed to move Arraez’s $14MM so they could sign Profar. And now that Profar signed for $14MM/yr, I’m convinced they can’t move Arraez without eating at least $5-6MM. I think he helps a team a lot, but not on his own. It was a combination of Arraez-Profar-Merrill-Solano-Peralta that really made the 2024 offense one of the best (probably the best) of the Petco Park era because they were so good at “keeping the line moving”. Arraez at $14MM is not attractive enough, even for a high strikeout/bad situational hitting team that needs to go in that direction (looking at you, Mariners).

Trading Cease would likely help them fill 2-3 spots while clearing salary. Makes the most sense because it might be the only way to do it.

Guest: Do you see Michael Conforto being more in an everyday role and not so much a platoon role given his success vs LHP in 2024?

Jon Becker: Yeah, right now we’ve got him as a full-timer, even though his 2024 performance deviated from his usual against lefties. They’ve got other players to work into the fold (Taylor, Rojas, Pages), but they can sit Kim and Muncy sometimes to accomplish that, too. We also have no indication of how the Dodgers will use Ohtani on days he pitches, not to mention the day before or day after.

jaygray007: As a Pirate fan, i had Profar pinned as the last starter-caliber OF for the pirates to go after.  At this point, where do they pivot?   Is Verdugo even better than Suwinski/Palacios?   I guess a Canha/Grichuk to platoon with them makes sense but your RH platoon guy just isnt gonna move the needle.   How do they salvage this offseason?

Jason Martinez: Verdugo is more consistent and a good defender. Add a platoon partner like Grichuk or Canha and I’d feel better about their lineup. Suwinski has some upside but they can’t go into the season with that big of a question mark. But not many other options out there. David Peralta was very good with the Padres last season and is a great clubhouse guy. But he’s 37. Not sure he’ll keep that up in an everyday role.

drplantwrench: do you guys think a Taylor Ward for Jared Jones trade would be fair?  Or close enough to fair that you could add a prospect to make it work?

Jon Becker: Two years of Ward isn’t anywhere close to being worth five years of Jones, IMO; even if it was equal club control I wouldn’t give up Jones for Ward, who’s on the wrong side of 30 and has been more good than great the last two years. It looked like Jones ran out of gas a little once he came back from the IL but his raw stuff is tantalizing.

Hugh: Can Ben Rice be NYY’s backup catcher and a sometimes 1B platoon with Goldschmidt? Feels like the best way to get him games/exposure since he’s conquered AAA.

What’s the frequency in which a team starts both their catchers in a lineup?

Jason Martinez: Austin Wells is their primary catcher and teams usually want a backup to complement the starter. In this case, Wells is young and he’s a left-handed batter. So an experienced veteran who bats right-handed is ideal. Alex Jackson is the closest to that right now and Rice is neither. Not sure they consider him to be a good enough defender. If they still feel he has that potential, I’d expect him to play a lot of catcher in AAA.

Chris Ilitch’s Burner: Should I trade Skubal now, or 6 months from now?

Jon Becker: Unless this season goes completely off the rails, neither. And even if it does, still maybe not! I get that you’d rather have something than just a comp pick if he walks in free agency, but he’s got two years before FA, they’re in contention, and presumably trying to extend him. No good reason to cut him loose now.

Chris: Tha Yanks have traded an immense amount of catching depth in the last 2 years, where do you see them going at this position beyond Wells? I cant imagne its Alex Jackson/JC Escarra.

Jason Martinez: I have a feeling it will end up being Elias Diaz or Luke Maile, but mostly because there aren’t many options left on the FA market …

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?pos=c&sig…

Matt: After Alonso and Kim, it doesn’t seem like there are many FA bats left. Are there any FAs out there that you think might be flying under the radar a little too much? Maybe JD Martinez or  Austin Hays or someone?

Jon Becker: Bregman too, of course, but yeah after that it’s not great. Martinez didn’t reach the bar necessary to be valuable as a DH (gotta be a lot better than a 108 wRC+), but he’s a routine-oriented guy who got a late start to the year and hit the ball harder, on average, than any remaining FA. I’m also a big fan of Randal Grichuk as an option to crush lefties, and his ability to at least fake it in CF is valuable in a pinch.

ega05me: How do you determine the order of players in the minor leagues on roster resources from top to bottom per position. What is the priority?

ega05me: How do you learn when players are allocated a 4th optional year due to injuries?

Jason Martinez: Sorting priority is … 40-man, NRI, Prospect Ranking, Arizona Fall League invitee, MiLB Power Ranking. It starts to get a little messy around mid-offseason but should be set up that way now.

I usually wait for a beat reporter to confirm 4th options, but someone sent me a list this year. Now I’m just waiting to cross-reference once MLBTR puts their “out of options” list (hopefully soon) because sometimes I lose track when a player is given a 4th option, doesn’t use it, and then should be back to “0” options the following year.

mortimer podge: appreciate the hodge answer! just saw bregman/dodgers rumors, which i find hilarious. how would he even fit on that team at this point? dump muncy? muncy to second base? platoon? ohtani to right field? just bench bregman and sign him to be funny?

Jon Becker: This was from an ESPN article asking their writers to make a bold prediction for the rest of the offseason, not a rumor or a report. David Schoenfield certainly got the assignment, because Bregman to LA would be BOLD. Like you said, doesn’t make sense positionally and the optics of signing a 2017 Astro would come across… poorly, let’s say… to the fanbase.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Palacios was a better hitter than Verdugo in 2024, albeit in a much smaller sample.

Jason Martinez: 162 games vs 2-3 week stint is a huge difference. Both of the Palacios’ brothers have proven that they could be very good in small samples. And they haven’t really been given much of a chance to play regularly over a full season but that might be because teams don’t think they’re be successful as lineup regulars. They’re definitely fun to watch. Verdugo would be a boring choice, in my opinion, but you kind of know what you’re getting over 162 games.

Guest: when can teams start putting injured players on the 60 day IL to free up 40-man roster space?

Jon Becker: IIRC it’s the first full-team workout day, so that’s going to vary a little by team (the Cubs and Dodgers are a little earlier since they play in Japan to open the season in mid-March), but they’re all around Valentine’s Day, typically.

Robert: If bregman goes back to Houston how does that impact their defensive lineup. Rumor has it altuve to LF

Jason Martinez: Sounds like Altuve might’ve made the suggestion that he’d move to LF if Bregman returned. So Bregman/Paredes would be 2B and 3B. Not sure who’d play 2B. Bregman would probably be very good there and I’m not sure Paredes is good enough. If Yordan is healthy enough, he could also play some LF to get Altuve off of his feet more often.

compsci: Will Jung Hoo Lee hit over or under .300 next season?

Jon Becker: For everyone except Arraez and Witt I’m always going to take the under. I like Lee a lot but he hasn’t seen MLB pitching in months now and it’s not like he tore it up when he was healthy.

Sanford: If Alonso does return to NYM, who do you think gets bumped off the active roster? Marte DFA or Baty option?

Jason Martinez: I’d move either Baty or Acuña off the projected roster (both have options remaining) if they re-signed Alonso. They won’t DFA Marte. I’m sure they’d like to trade him but not sure they’d find a fit without eating a majority of his remaining salary. He’s still valuable as a 4th OF/platoon vs LHP.

Idiotic Failson: Other than Mayza, Hill, or Chafin, are there any other lefties that the Yankees could target?

Jason Martinez: Still a few others. Tyler Matzek, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore are all available. Brooks Raley is interesting coming back from injury.

Here’s the FA list … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?sign=unsi…

Jason Martinez: That will do it for today. Have a great weekend, everybody. Thanks for joining us!